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A Recession Is Coming (Eventually). Here's Where You'll See It First:
Last week's report on second-quarter gross domestic product showed that the economy slowed last spring. It also came exactly 10 years since the Great Recession ended, making this officially the longest expansion in American history. (Well, probably. More on that in a second.) So perhaps it's no surprise that forecasters, investors and ordinary people are increasingly asking when the next downturn will arrive.
Economists often say that "expansions don't die of old age." That is, recessions are like coin flips — just because you get heads five times in a row doesn't mean your next flip is more likely to come up tails.
Still, another recession will come eventually. Fortunately, economic expansions, unlike coin-flip streaks, usually provide some hints about when they are nearing their end — if you know where to look. Below is a guide to some of the indicators that have historically done the best job of sounding the alarm.
[...] One caveat: Economists are notoriously terrible at forecasting recessions, especially more than a few months in advance. In fact, it's possible (though unlikely) that a recession has already begun, and we just don't know it yet.
"Historically, the best that forecasters have been able to do consistently is recognize that we're in a recession once we're in one," said Tara Sinclair, an economist at George Washington University. "The dream of an early warning system is still a dream that we're working on."
The article goes on to list and expand upon these indicators which are:
1: The Unemployment Rate
2: The Yield Curve
3: The ISM Manufacturing Index
4: Consumer Sentiment
5: Choose Your Favorite
Do you think the US economy is on the verge of a recession? What have you done, if anything, in preparation for the eventual downturn?
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @03:58AM (8 children)
Go back to reddit. I cringe whenever I see that.
(Score: 2) by Azuma Hazuki on Thursday August 01 2019, @10:25PM (7 children)
Tone trolling counts for jack and squat, but nice try. I'm not wrong, either; capitalism, unchecked by proper regulation, exhibits a self-reinforcing positive feedback loop whereby wealth, assets, and resources in general become increasingly and increasingly-quickly concentrated in the hands of a few actors. We're very close to the point of breakdown and degeneration into feudalism, i.e., in the late stage.
What was your argument again? Oh, right, nothing but tone trolling.
I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
(Score: 0, Flamebait) by khallow on Friday August 02 2019, @12:38PM (6 children)
The fantasy spinning continues. If this is the situation, then why aren't we seeing huge increases in worker deaths? Pollution? Fraud and thievery at the corporate level?
Where's the evidence, pal?
Perhaps, though once again, where's the evidence? I'll note also that a lot of the dynamics that push towards feudalism, like professional licensing, zoning, and government entitlements, aren't capitalist in nature. It could well be late state something, but late stage capitalism? You need evidence of a connection.
(Score: 2) by Azuma Hazuki on Saturday August 03 2019, @01:38PM (5 children)
You re willfully blind. Wealth has been concentrating at the top for almost 40 goddamn years, the data are out there if you but care to look, and it would take less than a minute of Googling.
There is none so blind as he who refuses to see. I get it, you're never gonna change; you love, love, deepthroating that jackboot that's been stomping on your skull. You think you're a temporarily-embarrassed millionaire. You think you're one of the boys in the club. Pal, you ain't; the "boys in the club" don't even know you exist, and would sooner drop you feet-first in a running meatgrinder and stand under the spigot to shower in your blood as you howl and scream in mortal agony.
I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
(Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday August 04 2019, @10:51PM (4 children)
Wealth on paper has been. Guess what you said [soylentnews.org] about that.
And of course, such wealth measures completely ignore future income, the greatest sort of wealth for debtors.
(Score: 2) by Azuma Hazuki on Monday August 05 2019, @10:21PM (3 children)
Do me a huge favor and wake the entire world up to this fact then, please. Because until people realize this, they're just going to keep sleepwalking along until reality wakes them up.
I know you won't do any such thing of course. Your worldview depends on the nightmare continuing. You actually think you're going to get out of this scot-free. You seriously think you're one of the elite down on his luck, and Any Minute Now (TM) they'll be sending the mothership along to beam you up. How very droll...
I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
(Score: 0, Troll) by khallow on Tuesday August 06 2019, @11:35AM (2 children)
Why? The disease is the cure. That's one of the nice things about market-based economies. They fix a lot of stuff without intervention.
What nightmare? The world is better than it's ever been. That's what counts with me.
Well, at least I think, eh?
Ah, yes, can't let rational thought get in the way of the narrative. I have no such expectations, of course, nor ever said otherwise. But that sort of fact never slips into your fantasies.
(Score: 2) by Azuma Hazuki on Tuesday August 06 2019, @11:45AM (1 child)
Do you really think this entire site hasn't got your number by now, you self-serving fool? None of your actions or posts make sense in any other context. You're trying to deepthroat the boot that's stomping on your face, in the hope that you'll get your own pair of stompin' boots Someday Soon (TM). You are a parody of yourself.
I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
(Score: 0, Troll) by khallow on Tuesday August 06 2019, @04:09PM
You are projecting hard today.
By your context, which unfortunately, isn't firing on all cylinders. I think most other people just don't have that problem.
And of course, can't forget the narrative no matter how nonsensical it gets. I have no interest or expectation of getting my own jack boots - something which I've mentioned before.
This is the same bullshit you've pulled out dozens of times before. I seem to recall that you've been exposed to critical thinking ideas and techniques before. It's time you started using them.