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A Recession Is Coming (Eventually). Here's Where You'll See It First:
Last week's report on second-quarter gross domestic product showed that the economy slowed last spring. It also came exactly 10 years since the Great Recession ended, making this officially the longest expansion in American history. (Well, probably. More on that in a second.) So perhaps it's no surprise that forecasters, investors and ordinary people are increasingly asking when the next downturn will arrive.
Economists often say that "expansions don't die of old age." That is, recessions are like coin flips — just because you get heads five times in a row doesn't mean your next flip is more likely to come up tails.
Still, another recession will come eventually. Fortunately, economic expansions, unlike coin-flip streaks, usually provide some hints about when they are nearing their end — if you know where to look. Below is a guide to some of the indicators that have historically done the best job of sounding the alarm.
[...] One caveat: Economists are notoriously terrible at forecasting recessions, especially more than a few months in advance. In fact, it's possible (though unlikely) that a recession has already begun, and we just don't know it yet.
"Historically, the best that forecasters have been able to do consistently is recognize that we're in a recession once we're in one," said Tara Sinclair, an economist at George Washington University. "The dream of an early warning system is still a dream that we're working on."
The article goes on to list and expand upon these indicators which are:
1: The Unemployment Rate
2: The Yield Curve
3: The ISM Manufacturing Index
4: Consumer Sentiment
5: Choose Your Favorite
Do you think the US economy is on the verge of a recession? What have you done, if anything, in preparation for the eventual downturn?
(Score: 3, Interesting) by Runaway1956 on Tuesday July 30 2019, @02:27PM (1 child)
I've not heard that one. But, if you're interested, the actual unemployment rate has been over 20% for quite a long while now. The chart seems to show it going over 20% very late 2008, or early 2009. I guess there may be some merit to that claim though. Young black males are hardest hit with unemployment - the statistics will bear that out, no matter where you go to find them. Especially in the inner cities, it seems that young black males are involved in more violent crime than anyone else. Out here in the rural areas, young white males seem to be marginally more violent than young black males. Damn the statistics on that one, that's just what I observe. So, yeah, maybe 25%, 30%, or 40% unemployment is conducive to violence. People with nothing to do generally go out to find something to do, even if it is self-destructive.
(Score: 2) by Alfred on Tuesday July 30 2019, @03:46PM