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A Recession Is Coming (Eventually). Here's Where You'll See It First:
Last week's report on second-quarter gross domestic product showed that the economy slowed last spring. It also came exactly 10 years since the Great Recession ended, making this officially the longest expansion in American history. (Well, probably. More on that in a second.) So perhaps it's no surprise that forecasters, investors and ordinary people are increasingly asking when the next downturn will arrive.
Economists often say that "expansions don't die of old age." That is, recessions are like coin flips — just because you get heads five times in a row doesn't mean your next flip is more likely to come up tails.
Still, another recession will come eventually. Fortunately, economic expansions, unlike coin-flip streaks, usually provide some hints about when they are nearing their end — if you know where to look. Below is a guide to some of the indicators that have historically done the best job of sounding the alarm.
[...] One caveat: Economists are notoriously terrible at forecasting recessions, especially more than a few months in advance. In fact, it's possible (though unlikely) that a recession has already begun, and we just don't know it yet.
"Historically, the best that forecasters have been able to do consistently is recognize that we're in a recession once we're in one," said Tara Sinclair, an economist at George Washington University. "The dream of an early warning system is still a dream that we're working on."
The article goes on to list and expand upon these indicators which are:
1: The Unemployment Rate
2: The Yield Curve
3: The ISM Manufacturing Index
4: Consumer Sentiment
5: Choose Your Favorite
Do you think the US economy is on the verge of a recession? What have you done, if anything, in preparation for the eventual downturn?
(Score: 2) by Thexalon on Tuesday July 30 2019, @04:29PM
Oh, so you're saying that the current expansion of the economy and reduction in unemployment is the Democrats' doing? Clearly, we need to keep them in control of most of the levers of the economy then if we want good things to happen - otherwise things might get seriously fouled up like they did in 2008 with the Republicans in charge.
Or are you saying that the organization that currently controls the Senate, Presidency, Supreme Court, and the Federal Reserve is somehow completely powerless over the economy, and it's the party that controls the House that is in control of "most of the levers of the economy"? And if so, wouldn't that make Newt Gingrich the primary cause of the dot-com boom-bust cycle back in the late 1990's?
Or are you implying that the Democrats somehow control the actions of Wall Street tycoons, even though Wall Street has never shown loyalty to any entity other than their own bank accounts?
Somehow I don't think you thought this through.
The only thing that stops a bad guy with a compiler is a good guy with a compiler.