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posted by martyb on Tuesday August 20 2019, @07:34PM   Printer-friendly
from the where-is-an-Illudium-Q-36-Explosive-Space-Modulator-when-you-need-it? dept.

NASA has already begun preparations for the arrival of asteroid 99942 Apophis - dubbed the 'God of Chaos' asteroid - which will skim past the earth in 10 years. The asteroid measures 340 meters across and will pass within just 19,000 miles of Earth's surface. Apophis is one of the largest asteroids to pass so close to the Earth's surface and a collision with the planet has the potential to be devastating for all life on Earth.

[...] The asteroid is set to get closer to the earth than communication and weather satellites in orbit. Most satellites in Earth's orbit are geostationary orbit 36,000 km away (22,236 miles) from the planet.

Apophis is travelling at almost 25,000 mph meaning a slight detour from its trajectory could be catastrophic.

Apophis' size and proximity to Earth have resulted in it being categorised as a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA) and NASA is keen to learn as much from the asteroid as possible to help prevent further asteroid issues in the future.

NASA scientist are aware that as the asteroid flies by the planet in 2029, its orbit trajectory may also change thus raising fears that in the future the massive rock could collide with the planet.

[...] According to some researchers, the immense size of the rock is not a cause for concern as there is a 1 to 100,000 chance of the asteroid striking the earth.

[...] Astronomer Davide Farnocchia added: "We already know that the close encounter with Earth will change Apophis' orbit.

"But our models also show the close approach could change the way this asteroid spins and it is possible that there will be some surfaces changes, like small avalanches."

https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1167554/asteroid-news-hit-earth-nasa-apophis-god-of-chaos-asteroids-space-asteroid-impact

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  • (Score: 2) by ikanreed on Tuesday August 20 2019, @08:26PM (5 children)

    by ikanreed (3164) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday August 20 2019, @08:26PM (#882767) Journal

    Passing close to an orbiting body completely fucks up existing orbits, and doesn't increase risk of collision on future passes. If it passes "behind" earth, it's likely to be flung way the fuck out to extremely distant orbits, and not come back to the same orbital distance for decades, much less magically intersecting earth's orbit at a specific time and place.

    I guess you gotta get the clickbait fear mongering in somewhere.

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  • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Tuesday August 20 2019, @09:00PM (2 children)

    by JoeMerchant (3937) on Tuesday August 20 2019, @09:00PM (#882781)

    In particular, this rock is anticipated to stay in the neighborhood even after this close approach.

    Orbital mechanics are pretty reliable, but when things are this close you can paint one side dark and the other light, and if the spin keeps one side or the other facing the sun more of the time, in 10 years that can make the difference between a hit and a miss.

    The reason they put 1/100,000 odds on projections like this is because they know there are things they don't know - the known unknowns put that uncertainty there. Unknown unknowns probably affect the true odds quite a bit more, particularly over a 10 year timespan.

    With a name like Apophis there's no need to click the article, just right click the name and do your own Google search, the first result is the Wikipedia article about the space rock, not the Greek name for the Egyptian god, or the Stargate reference, or the Fractal imaging software - I was kind of surprised it lacked a disambiguation.

    --
    🌻🌻 [google.com]
    • (Score: 2) by qzm on Wednesday August 21 2019, @12:02AM (1 child)

      by qzm (3260) on Wednesday August 21 2019, @12:02AM (#882865)

      The reason they put 1/100,000 odds on projections like this is more likely that it helps them get funding.

      Also, no, painting one side is highly unlikely to make a difference - a huge low density object could vary if its albedo changed a lot, however this is a compact high density object..
      (Not to mention that it is unlikely anyone zips out there with a tin of paint..)

      They may not have characterized the orbit well enough once upon a time, however the 100,000 number is just too nice and round to be an actual figure..
      It feels much like a 'well, we need to make this scary somehow, otherwise how will we get enough hype to up out funding?'

      Not to mention.. the Express.. possibly the WORST news source you could look for.

      Its chances of imact are now effectively zero, as it has been well characterised.
      https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=99942 [nasa.gov]

      Sorry to let actual facts get in the way of a super-hyped tabloid story that no one seems to bother checking up on.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday August 21 2019, @12:16AM

        by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday August 21 2019, @12:16AM (#882870)

        Its chances of imact are now effectively zero,

        That is the chances it will impact you. When you add up the 7 billion people on earth it is bound to hit someone.

  • (Score: 2) by Nuke on Wednesday August 21 2019, @09:07AM (1 child)

    by Nuke (3162) on Wednesday August 21 2019, @09:07AM (#883030)

    Indeed. As Earth is not going to be sitting still until next time the asteroid comes round, it does not matter if the asteroid's (or our) orbit is changed a bit. It might increase the chance of a strike in the future or it might decrease it - someone (not me) will do the sums and let us know.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday August 21 2019, @07:25PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday August 21 2019, @07:25PM (#883281)

      It turns out global warming will speed the revolution of the Earth up just a fraction of a second... but long enough to move us out of the way of this asteroid.