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Asteroid Shock: NASA Preparing for 'Colossal God of Chaos' Rock to Arrive in Next 10 Years

posted by martyb on Tuesday August 20 2019, @07:34PM   Printer-friendly
from the where-is-an-Illudium-Q-36-Explosive-Space-Modulator-when-you-need-it? dept.

An Anonymous Coward writes:

NASA has already begun preparations for the arrival of asteroid 99942 Apophis - dubbed the 'God of Chaos' asteroid - which will skim past the earth in 10 years. The asteroid measures 340 meters across and will pass within just 19,000 miles of Earth's surface. Apophis is one of the largest asteroids to pass so close to the Earth's surface and a collision with the planet has the potential to be devastating for all life on Earth.

[...] The asteroid is set to get closer to the earth than communication and weather satellites in orbit. Most satellites in Earth's orbit are geostationary orbit 36,000 km away (22,236 miles) from the planet.

Apophis is travelling at almost 25,000 mph meaning a slight detour from its trajectory could be catastrophic.

Apophis' size and proximity to Earth have resulted in it being categorised as a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA) and NASA is keen to learn as much from the asteroid as possible to help prevent further asteroid issues in the future.

NASA scientist are aware that as the asteroid flies by the planet in 2029, its orbit trajectory may also change thus raising fears that in the future the massive rock could collide with the planet.

[...] According to some researchers, the immense size of the rock is not a cause for concern as there is a 1 to 100,000 chance of the asteroid striking the earth.

[...] Astronomer Davide Farnocchia added: "We already know that the close encounter with Earth will change Apophis' orbit.

"But our models also show the close approach could change the way this asteroid spins and it is possible that there will be some surfaces changes, like small avalanches."

https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1167554/asteroid-news-hit-earth-nasa-apophis-god-of-chaos-asteroids-space-asteroid-impact

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Original Submission

 
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  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 20 2019, @08:53PM (3 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 20 2019, @08:53PM (#882780)

    Computing the statistical Expected value considering just the humanity (7Bn) as a whole, 1 in 100,000 is almost a sure bet!

    Even sometimes someone wins the Powerball jackpot with a 2,922.01338 worse expected value!

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 20 2019, @10:02PM (2 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 20 2019, @10:02PM (#882816)

    Yes, the chance it doesn't hit anyone on earth is (1 - 1/100k)^7Bn 4.940656e-324

    I just got zero for any population larger than 74.5 million. We are fucked.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 20 2019, @11:31PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 20 2019, @11:31PM (#882853)

      Let's hope the press fooder of 1 in 100,000 chance was just a figure of speech and then the actual odds are obviously much lower.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday August 21 2019, @09:06AM

      by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday August 21 2019, @09:06AM (#883029)

      That would be correct if the 7Bn where randonm independent event, but aren't.