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posted by martyb on Tuesday August 20 2019, @07:34PM   Printer-friendly
from the where-is-an-Illudium-Q-36-Explosive-Space-Modulator-when-you-need-it? dept.

NASA has already begun preparations for the arrival of asteroid 99942 Apophis - dubbed the 'God of Chaos' asteroid - which will skim past the earth in 10 years. The asteroid measures 340 meters across and will pass within just 19,000 miles of Earth's surface. Apophis is one of the largest asteroids to pass so close to the Earth's surface and a collision with the planet has the potential to be devastating for all life on Earth.

[...] The asteroid is set to get closer to the earth than communication and weather satellites in orbit. Most satellites in Earth's orbit are geostationary orbit 36,000 km away (22,236 miles) from the planet.

Apophis is travelling at almost 25,000 mph meaning a slight detour from its trajectory could be catastrophic.

Apophis' size and proximity to Earth have resulted in it being categorised as a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA) and NASA is keen to learn as much from the asteroid as possible to help prevent further asteroid issues in the future.

NASA scientist are aware that as the asteroid flies by the planet in 2029, its orbit trajectory may also change thus raising fears that in the future the massive rock could collide with the planet.

[...] According to some researchers, the immense size of the rock is not a cause for concern as there is a 1 to 100,000 chance of the asteroid striking the earth.

[...] Astronomer Davide Farnocchia added: "We already know that the close encounter with Earth will change Apophis' orbit.

"But our models also show the close approach could change the way this asteroid spins and it is possible that there will be some surfaces changes, like small avalanches."

https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1167554/asteroid-news-hit-earth-nasa-apophis-god-of-chaos-asteroids-space-asteroid-impact

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  • (Score: 2) by KritonK on Wednesday August 21 2019, @01:47PM (6 children)

    by KritonK (465) on Wednesday August 21 2019, @01:47PM (#883114)

    There are infinite points on the piece of paper, so the probability of picking a specific one at random is, 1/∞, i.e., 0.

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  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday August 21 2019, @07:22PM (3 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday August 21 2019, @07:22PM (#883278)

    There are infinite points on the piece of paper,

    No, there are not.

    • (Score: 2) by KritonK on Thursday August 22 2019, @11:00AM (2 children)

      by KritonK (465) on Thursday August 22 2019, @11:00AM (#883554)

      Yes, there are. [wikipedia.org]

      • (Score: 1, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday August 22 2019, @05:02PM (1 child)

        by Anonymous Coward on Thursday August 22 2019, @05:02PM (#883714)

        You are wrong. And here are not.
        An imaginary virtual mathematic "paper" is just a model of reality and not the contrary. At least with our current understanding of fundamental physics.

        • (Score: 2) by KritonK on Friday August 23 2019, @01:37PM

          by KritonK (465) on Friday August 23 2019, @01:37PM (#884091)

          I'm talking about fundamental statistics, using fundamental Euclidian geometry as an example. Feel free to demolish my analogy, but the fact remains that the probability of something happening being zero, and the certainty that something will not happen are not necessarily the same thing.

          Perhaps I should have used a car analogy, with an infinite number of cars stalled in the NJ turnpike, and something random happening to one of them.

  • (Score: 3, Insightful) by AthanasiusKircher on Thursday August 22 2019, @06:48PM (1 child)

    by AthanasiusKircher (5291) on Thursday August 22 2019, @06:48PM (#883757) Journal

    Your PIN has finite size. Therefore any "point" it sticks into will be finite, not infinitesimal, in size. Your piece of paper cannot have an infinite number of "points" of that magnitude.

    You can't mix a physical object with finite size (a "pin") with a calculation about infinitesimals and claim the probability calculation is valid.

    • (Score: 2) by KritonK on Friday August 23 2019, @01:22PM

      by KritonK (465) on Friday August 23 2019, @01:22PM (#884081)

      Analogies can go so far. I could refine it by saying that the pin has only one Euclidian point at its center, and so on, but the point is that, out of an infinite number of outcomes, the probability of a finite amount of outcomes happening is zero, even though these outcomes can still happen.

      The asteroid having a probability of hitting us equal to 0 is not the same as the certainty that it won't hit us.