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Pace of Climate Change Underestimated

posted by martyb on Wednesday August 21 2019, @12:25AM   Printer-friendly
from the that's-science-for-you dept.

An Anonymous Coward writes:

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/scientists-have-been-underestimating-the-pace-of-climate-change/

Recently, the U.K. Met Office announced a revision to the Hadley Center historical analysis of sea surface temperatures (SST), suggesting that the oceans have warmed about 0.1 degree Celsius more than previously thought. The need for revision arises from the long-recognized problem that in the past sea surface temperatures were measured using a variety of error-prone methods such as using open buckets, lamb's wool–wrapped thermometers, and canvas bags. It was not until the 1990s that oceanographers developed a network of consistent and reliable measurement buoys.

[...] But that's where the good news ends. Because the oceans cover three fifths of the globe, this correction implies that previous estimates of overall global warming have been too low. Moreover it was reported recently that in the one place where it was carefully measured, the underwater melting that is driving disintegration of ice sheets and glaciers is occurring far faster than predicted by theory—as much as two orders of magnitude faster—throwing current model projections of sea level rise further in doubt.

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  • (Score: 1, Offtopic) by Coward, Anonymous on Wednesday August 21 2019, @04:39AM (4 children)

    by Coward, Anonymous (7017) on Wednesday August 21 2019, @04:39AM (#882965) Journal

    In the US, heat waves have decreased over the past 120 years [globalchange.gov].

    Starting Score:    1  point
    Moderation   0  
       Offtopic=2, Troll=1, Insightful=1, Interesting=1, Underrated=1, Total=6
    Extra 'Offtopic' Modifier   0  
    Total Score:   1  

  • (Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday August 21 2019, @05:42PM (1 child)

    by DeathMonkey (1380) on Wednesday August 21 2019, @05:42PM (#883241) Journal

    Wow, impressive, a double-cherry-pick!

    1: Heatwaves can decrease while the average increases.
    2: The US is not the globe.

    • (Score: 2) by Coward, Anonymous on Friday August 23 2019, @06:50PM

      by Coward, Anonymous (7017) on Friday August 23 2019, @06:50PM (#884285) Journal

      The post I was responding to said

      Meanwhile we have record heat waves with temperature increasing on the
      order of .05 C EVERY summer..

      My link regarding heatwaves was on-topic and not a cherry-pick at all. Their post said nothing about region. There's a good chance they meant the US. Anyway, a lot of US people are unaware of the long-term heat wave trend, so I posted the link for them to check it out.

  • (Score: 2, Interesting) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday August 21 2019, @05:46PM (1 child)

    by DeathMonkey (1380) on Wednesday August 21 2019, @05:46PM (#883242) Journal

    From your link:

    The frequency of intense heat waves (4-day, 1-in-5 year events) has generally increased since the 1960s in most regions except the Midwest and the Great Plains. , Since the early 1980s (Figure 6.4), there is suggestive evidence of a slight increase in the intensity of heat waves nationwide as well as an increase in the concurrence of droughts and heat waves.