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posted by martyb on Friday August 30 2019, @04:33AM   Printer-friendly
from the HHGTTG dept.

I happened upon a couple stories that, though factually accurate, prey on people's inability to comprehend big numbers so as to paint things to be far more dangerous than they really are. Can you say "click bait sensationalism!" Further, being forewarned of what might soon be in the public zeitgeist, we can be prepared to dispel the fears and encourage a state of reasonableness.

NASA Asteroid Tracker: 2,133-Foot Hazardous NEO Is Headed Towards Earth:

NASA is closely monitoring a potentially hazardous asteroid that is expected to dangerously approach Earth a month from now. According to the agency's Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), the approaching asteroid is almost twice as big as the Empire State Building.

The asteroid has been identified by CNEOS as 467317 (2000 QW7). According to the agency's database, the asteroid is currently traveling at a speed of around 14,400 miles per hour. It has an estimated diameter of around 2,133 feet. Given its size, the space rock is almost as big as the Burj Khalifa in Dubai, which is known as the tallest manmade structure in the world.

According to CNEOS, 467317 (2000 QW7) is expected to fly close to Earth on Sept. 14 at 7:54 pm EDT. During its approach, the asteroid will be about 0.03564 astronomical units or around 3.3 million miles from the planet's center.

The other story is NASA Detects Planet-Killer Asteroid That Might Hit Earth Next Year:

NASA has detected that one of the largest known potentially hazardous asteroids will approach Earth less than a year from now. Depending on several factors in space, the approaching planet-killer asteroid could end up on a path straight to Earth.

The approaching asteroid has been identified by the space agency as 1998 OR2. It was first discovered on June 30, 1987, and is known to frequently approach the orbits of Earth and Jupiter. It was classified as an Amor asteroid, which means its orbit covers both the Sun and Earth.

As indicated by NASA's asteroid tracking department, which is known as the Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), 1998 OR2 has an estimated diameter of 13,500 feet. Given its size, the asteroid is longer than the National Mall in Washington D.C., which stretches from the Capitol Building to the Lincoln Memorial.

According to CNEOS, 1998 OR2 will fly past Earth on April 29, 2020, at 5:56 am EDT. During its approach, the asteroid will be about 0.04205 astronomical units or around 3.9 million miles from the planet's center.

The stories then go on to describe potential perturbations that could affect the orbit and possibly cause an impact with Earth. One is a "gravitational keyhole" ... "a region in space that's heavily affected by the gravitational pull of a nearby large object such as planets". The other is the Yarkovsky effect which is basically asymmetric heating of a rotating body in space which causes a slight deflection to the asteroid's orbit.

Obligatory quote from The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Universe by Douglas Adams:

Space is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind-bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space.

For the sake of comparison, assume the largest of the mentioned asteroids was shrunk to the size of a US 1 cent piece (aka penny) 19.05mm diameter which is about the same size as a 5 euro cent coin (€0.05) 21.25 mm. For ease of calculation we'll just round that to 20 mm.

How would the sizes of — and closest approach to — the Earth-Moon system compare?

If the larger of two asteroids (long axis of 620 meters) were shrunk to a ~20 mm cent, then the Moon would be just over 100 meters across, the Earth would be just over 400 meters in diameter, the Moon would be nearly 13 km away from the Earth, and the nearest approach of one of the asteroids would be... nearly 180 km away.

Put another way, at this scale, the football-field-sized Moon would be nearly 8 miles away from the 4-football-field-sized Earth, and the nearest approach of one of the cent-sized asteroid would be... about 100 miles away.

In other words, "Nothing to see here; move along!"


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  • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Friday August 30 2019, @10:43AM (1 child)

    by JoeMerchant (3937) on Friday August 30 2019, @10:43AM (#887707)

    If dust starts to blok our sun and the world cools it would be nice to have some nuclear power reactors left to power up and generate some heat.

    You must be German, not French.

    If we, politically, decided we need nuclear power, it could be rolled out wide-scale in 20 years or less. The regulations and construction delays are mostly a symptom of the political opposition it faces.

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  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday August 30 2019, @02:31PM

    by Anonymous Coward on Friday August 30 2019, @02:31PM (#887755)

    Could you construct something like that when it is like -20 degrees C? (We're talking about the sun being mostly blocked 24/7 for decades, my guess is temperatures go down quickly, like within a week).