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China's 'Belt and Road' Risks Paris Climate Goals: Analysis

posted by martyb on Tuesday September 03 2019, @04:50AM   
from the on-the-road-again dept.

Arthur T Knackerbracket has found the following story:

Carbon-heavy development in countries part of China's Belt and Road Initiative could render the Paris climate goals unreachable, according to a new analysis on the gargantuan global infrastructure project released Monday.

The massive network of ports, railways, roads and industrial parks spanning Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Europe will see trillions invested in new infrastructure across 126 countries.

While the Chinese state is putting up a significant part of the cash, the project will also see other national and private-sector investment, and opponents warn of its devastating environmental impact.

An analysis of the possible carbon footprint of infrastructure development in Belt and Road (BRI) countries said there was a significant risk of the initiative alone producing enough greenhouse gas emissions to derail the Paris climate goals.

The 2015 accord enjoins nations to cap temperature rises to "well below" two degrees Celsius (3.6 Farenheit) above pre-industrial levels.

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Original Submission

• [Citation needed] (Score: 5, Interesting) by c0lo on Tuesday September 03 2019, @06:56AM

  by c0lo (156) on Tuesday September 03 2019, @06:56AM (#889136) Journal

  TFA practically taken verbatim from AFP [afp.com].
  Neither of them provide a link to that "new analysis on the gargantuan global infrastructure project released Monday" mentioned, fucking journos.

  After spending some time hunting to the original doco, it seems I found one that fits the "Belt and Road" "Paris" and "Tsinghua Center for Finance and Development" [vivideconomics.com]

  Titled "Decarbonizing the Belt and Road - A GREEN FINANCE ROADMAP), with the terminology of "B&RC = Belt and Road countries" and "2DS = 2-Degree Scenario levels, the upper limit of the Paris Agreement’s temperature increase target", the executive summary reads:

  • The 126 B&RCs accounted for just 28% of emissions in 2015. If they follow the conventional growth pathways (BAU) seen historically and the rest of the world follows 2DS, they could account for 66% of global emissions by 2050 and result in global carbon emissions double the 2DS level.
  • If B&RCs follow historical carbon-intense growth patterns (‘Worst in Class’ growth), it may be enough to result in a 2.7 degree path even if the rest of the world adheres to 2DS levels of emissions.
  • Annual emissions for the 126 B&RCs could be 39% lower in 2050 than business-as-usual levels, if B&RCs achieved ‘commensurate historical best practices’ (i.e. effectively deploying leading-edge green technologies already in use, at a pace commensurate with their stage of development measured by income per capita).
  • However, a best in class growth scenario would still fall short of the reduction required to align with a 2DS, resulting in their carbon emissions still exceeding the aggregate 2DS budget by a huge margin, 17%, or 25Gt, by 2050.

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  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0 https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford

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