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posted by martyb on Wednesday September 04 2019, @05:23PM   Printer-friendly
from the instead-of-batteries-just-use-a-very-long-extension-cord dept.

Forbes:

The future is not looking bright for oil, according to a new report that claims the commodity would have to be priced at $10-$20 a barrel to remain competitive as a transport fuel.

The new research, from BNP Paribas, says that the economics of renewable energy make it impossible for oil to compete at current prices. The author of the report, global head of sustainability Mark Lewis, says that "renewable electricity has a short-run marginal cost of zero, is cleaner environmentally, much easier to transport and could readily replace up to 40% of global oil demand".

[...] The report, Wells, Wires, And Wheels... Eroci And The Tough Road Ahead For Oil, introduces the concept of the Energy Return on Capital Invested (EROCI), focusing on the energy return on a $100bn outlay on oil and renewables where the energy is being used to power cars and other light-duty vehicles (LDVs).

"For a given capital outlay on oil and renewables, how much useful energy at the wheel do we get? Our analysis indicates that for the same capital outlay today, new wind and solar-energy projects in tandem with battery electric vehicles will produce six to seven times more useful energy at the wheels than will oil at $60 per barrel for gasoline powered light-duty vehicles, and three to four times more than will oil at $60 per barrel for light-duty vehicles running on diesel," says Lewis.

As fossil fuels phase out, will battery technology improve quickly enough to support the transition to renewables?


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  • (Score: 2, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 04 2019, @06:19PM (18 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 04 2019, @06:19PM (#889617)

    There's nothing in here about solving the actual, hard, real-world problems of transport infrastructure. "Light duty" can sound very cute when you think of it as a soccermom driving the soccermommyvan full of kids to the game 50 miles away, but is a hell of a lot less cute when you have a plumber driving a lot further with a heavier load with a "light duty" vehicle under bad conditions. It's a speculative statement about energy ROI, not about real-world engineering.

    I would love to have a one ton electric truck that could haul a couple of pallets for 400 miles, with that range maintained for a 10 year lifespan before battery overhaul, allowing for lots of time in freezing temperatures, recharging as fast as refilling a tank, for a price comparable with the IC engine equivalent.

    Nothing even remotely like that promises to be anywhere near the market in the next ten years, based on current, breathlessly reported, lab curiosities.

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  • (Score: 3, Informative) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday September 04 2019, @06:24PM (10 children)

    by DeathMonkey (1380) on Wednesday September 04 2019, @06:24PM (#889621) Journal

    Have you checked to make sure those aren't your own hands that are waving?

    Nothing even remotely like that promises to be anywhere near the market in the next ten years, based on current, breathlessly reported, lab curiosities.

    UPS Places Order for 950 Workhorse Electric Delivery Trucks [trucks.com]

    • (Score: 2) by Alfred on Wednesday September 04 2019, @06:32PM (4 children)

      by Alfred (4006) on Wednesday September 04 2019, @06:32PM (#889627) Journal
      950? That is just second stage feasibility study stuff for UPS. For UPS 9500 isn't that many.
      • (Score: 5, Informative) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday September 04 2019, @06:38PM (3 children)

        by DeathMonkey (1380) on Wednesday September 04 2019, @06:38PM (#889633) Journal
        • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 04 2019, @09:16PM (2 children)

          by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 04 2019, @09:16PM (#889695)

          The semis for Pepsi offer 500 mile range. On the scale of semis, that's not exactly an epoch-making range. Other aspects of performance? Not really mentioned, and it's not a light duty vehicle anyway.

          Shanghai: again, we're talking in-city, and they already have a large network of chargers - but no comment on how quickly they recharge. Great, fine for fleets, useless for small folks.

          Bronx: the same problem, it's in town and technical aspects largely unmentioned. Total puff piece.

          It's all very well to talk about how horrible the returns on petrochemical extraction investments are, but until the real-world technical challenges are solved, you might as well be extolling the virtues of donkey carts.

          • (Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday September 04 2019, @09:25PM (1 child)

            by DeathMonkey (1380) on Wednesday September 04 2019, @09:25PM (#889698) Journal

            Boy, that range requirement sure does keep growing, doesn't it!

            500 miles at 60 mph would mean you're driving for eight hours and twenty minutes without a break.

            • (Score: 2, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 04 2019, @09:47PM

              by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 04 2019, @09:47PM (#889709)

              Different vehicle classes, different situations. If you can't tell the difference in role between a Class 8 highway bulk haulage system, and an in-city light vehicle, then you don't even understand what the original article was about.

              100 miles for a package van is unimpressive. For many current industry purposes, it's utterly inadequate.

              500 miles for a semi is unimpressive. For many current industry purposes, it's utterly inadequate.

              A package van is not capable of taking the role of a Class 8 semi, and trying to pretend that they're equivalent is just showcasing your own ignorance.

    • (Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 04 2019, @08:44PM (4 children)

      by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 04 2019, @08:44PM (#889684)

      The UPS vans to which you refer have a 100 mile range, not 400. Battery life is unspecified, but given the track record of electric vehicles and hybrids, that 100 miles is probably going to diminish significantly in 10 years. There's no hint that they can be recharged in a couple of minutes, and their purchase price to the regular old Joe is hidden under some mumbling about TCO.

      Also, not a lot discussed about temperature swings - and given that they're probably city vehicles, given those specs, they probably won't be looking at the biggest swings.

      So, no. Even your cherry-picked pilot use case is not a counterexample of anything that I mentioned.

      Try again.

      • (Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday September 04 2019, @09:23PM (3 children)

        by DeathMonkey (1380) on Wednesday September 04 2019, @09:23PM (#889697) Journal

        The UPS vans to which you refer have a 100 mile range, not 400.

        That's because UPS is using them for local deliveries and doesn't need to drive 60mph for 7 hours straight.

        The Teslas Pepsi bought have a 500 mile range.

        • (Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 04 2019, @09:42PM (2 children)

          by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 04 2019, @09:42PM (#889707)

          Look again, read for detail.

          The UPS vans have roughly a 2 tonne capacity, fully loaded. They are single unit, light vehicles comparable with a Ford Econoline 350 or similar. They have a 100 mile range because of the limitations of their batteries. If they had more battery, they could have more range, but as you'd learn if you actually looked at the battery specs, batteries are heavy and bulky. Their energy density is quite low compared to diesel. You could certainly quadruple their range (given various assumptions) but at the expense of internal capacity and payload.

          The Teslas from Pepsi are not inner city package movers. They're class 8 vehicles, which means a GVWR over 15 tonnes. They have a lot more room for a lot more capacity, and that 500 mile range is still quite unimpressive for a semi. 1000 miles is easily available in diesel, and a hell of a lot more is on the market. So the Tesla is not a good answer to the Workhorse van's range problems, and in fact just illustrates some of the same problems in a different scale.

          • (Score: 2) by Tokolosh on Thursday September 05 2019, @03:13AM (1 child)

            by Tokolosh (585) on Thursday September 05 2019, @03:13AM (#889833)

            The article only claims a 40% replacement of oil demand. There are scenarios and requirements where EV is superior, and at the same time there will be others where EV is inferior.

            Let's not have the perfect be the enemy of the good. Just let unfettered economics and the free market do its thing.

            • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 05 2019, @03:38AM

              by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 05 2019, @03:38AM (#889842)

              Sure, as far as it goes, that's great. The in-city things work well, but that's not my situation any more than it is a lot of other people's. Yay for UPS, and Pepsi, and whoever.

              The rest of us peons appear to have another ... oh, twenty-five years to wait?

  • (Score: 2) by DannyB on Wednesday September 04 2019, @06:37PM (6 children)

    by DannyB (5839) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday September 04 2019, @06:37PM (#889628) Journal

    EVs may not be suitable for every porpoise.

    Nonetheless, there are significant use cases, and there are significant portions of the population that could find them generally useful today for commuting to work.

    I have a grueling ten minute commute to work with five (5!) yes five annoyitating traffic lights. While I can moan and complain that it used to be only 3 traffic lights, I would find an EV quite nice for going to work, running around town, etc. But I'm not ready to attempt to make buying one a spending priority just yet.

    "Light duty" can sound very cute

    Infrared motion detectors do not complain about having to be on duty. Nor do they fall asleep on duty.

    --
    People today are educated enough to repeat what they are taught but not to question what they are taught.
    • (Score: 2) by legont on Wednesday September 04 2019, @07:12PM (1 child)

      by legont (4179) on Wednesday September 04 2019, @07:12PM (#889650)

      The answer to your issue is bicycle. Even if you can't bike, Tesla is not needed for this. Golf cart is more than sufficient.

      I'd love to live like this and have a full size diesel truck to go in the country.

      --
      "Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
      • (Score: 2) by DannyB on Wednesday September 04 2019, @07:53PM

        by DannyB (5839) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday September 04 2019, @07:53PM (#889667) Journal

        Too old for bike. Golf cart is not a solution. Its a joke. It would take a very long time to get to work. Not going to work in snow, bad rain or thunder storm, or sub zero conditions.

        I also said an EV would be useful for getting around town. A golf cart wouldn't even be useful for getting to the nearby grocery store.

        (I heard some lightning! Yes, and I saw some thunder!)

        --
        People today are educated enough to repeat what they are taught but not to question what they are taught.
    • (Score: 5, Funny) by JNCF on Wednesday September 04 2019, @07:15PM (3 children)

      by JNCF (4317) on Wednesday September 04 2019, @07:15PM (#889652) Journal

      EVs may not be suitable for every porpoise

      but you don't have to worry about blowing a seal.

      • (Score: 4, Funny) by DannyB on Wednesday September 04 2019, @07:49PM (2 children)

        by DannyB (5839) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday September 04 2019, @07:49PM (#889662) Journal

        Teslas and maybe other EVs use a single fixed gear reduction. So you also don't have to worry about blowing a tranny.

        --
        People today are educated enough to repeat what they are taught but not to question what they are taught.
        • (Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday September 04 2019, @09:14PM

          by DeathMonkey (1380) on Wednesday September 04 2019, @09:14PM (#889693) Journal

          Boy, you guys are really putting a crimp in my plans for Friday!

        • (Score: 2) by Tokolosh on Thursday September 05 2019, @03:03AM

          by Tokolosh (585) on Thursday September 05 2019, @03:03AM (#889828)

          There go my plans of pimping my ride.