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from the instead-of-batteries-just-use-a-very-long-extension-cord dept.
The future is not looking bright for oil, according to a new report that claims the commodity would have to be priced at $10-$20 a barrel to remain competitive as a transport fuel.
The new research, from BNP Paribas, says that the economics of renewable energy make it impossible for oil to compete at current prices. The author of the report, global head of sustainability Mark Lewis, says that "renewable electricity has a short-run marginal cost of zero, is cleaner environmentally, much easier to transport and could readily replace up to 40% of global oil demand".
[...] The report, Wells, Wires, And Wheels... Eroci And The Tough Road Ahead For Oil, introduces the concept of the Energy Return on Capital Invested (EROCI), focusing on the energy return on a $100bn outlay on oil and renewables where the energy is being used to power cars and other light-duty vehicles (LDVs).
"For a given capital outlay on oil and renewables, how much useful energy at the wheel do we get? Our analysis indicates that for the same capital outlay today, new wind and solar-energy projects in tandem with battery electric vehicles will produce six to seven times more useful energy at the wheels than will oil at $60 per barrel for gasoline powered light-duty vehicles, and three to four times more than will oil at $60 per barrel for light-duty vehicles running on diesel," says Lewis.
As fossil fuels phase out, will battery technology improve quickly enough to support the transition to renewables?
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 04 2019, @09:42PM (2 children)
Look again, read for detail.
The UPS vans have roughly a 2 tonne capacity, fully loaded. They are single unit, light vehicles comparable with a Ford Econoline 350 or similar. They have a 100 mile range because of the limitations of their batteries. If they had more battery, they could have more range, but as you'd learn if you actually looked at the battery specs, batteries are heavy and bulky. Their energy density is quite low compared to diesel. You could certainly quadruple their range (given various assumptions) but at the expense of internal capacity and payload.
The Teslas from Pepsi are not inner city package movers. They're class 8 vehicles, which means a GVWR over 15 tonnes. They have a lot more room for a lot more capacity, and that 500 mile range is still quite unimpressive for a semi. 1000 miles is easily available in diesel, and a hell of a lot more is on the market. So the Tesla is not a good answer to the Workhorse van's range problems, and in fact just illustrates some of the same problems in a different scale.
(Score: 2) by Tokolosh on Thursday September 05 2019, @03:13AM (1 child)
The article only claims a 40% replacement of oil demand. There are scenarios and requirements where EV is superior, and at the same time there will be others where EV is inferior.
Let's not have the perfect be the enemy of the good. Just let unfettered economics and the free market do its thing.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 05 2019, @03:38AM
Sure, as far as it goes, that's great. The in-city things work well, but that's not my situation any more than it is a lot of other people's. Yay for UPS, and Pepsi, and whoever.
The rest of us peons appear to have another ... oh, twenty-five years to wait?