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from the instead-of-batteries-just-use-a-very-long-extension-cord dept.
The future is not looking bright for oil, according to a new report that claims the commodity would have to be priced at $10-$20 a barrel to remain competitive as a transport fuel.
The new research, from BNP Paribas, says that the economics of renewable energy make it impossible for oil to compete at current prices. The author of the report, global head of sustainability Mark Lewis, says that "renewable electricity has a short-run marginal cost of zero, is cleaner environmentally, much easier to transport and could readily replace up to 40% of global oil demand".
[...] The report, Wells, Wires, And Wheels... Eroci And The Tough Road Ahead For Oil, introduces the concept of the Energy Return on Capital Invested (EROCI), focusing on the energy return on a $100bn outlay on oil and renewables where the energy is being used to power cars and other light-duty vehicles (LDVs).
"For a given capital outlay on oil and renewables, how much useful energy at the wheel do we get? Our analysis indicates that for the same capital outlay today, new wind and solar-energy projects in tandem with battery electric vehicles will produce six to seven times more useful energy at the wheels than will oil at $60 per barrel for gasoline powered light-duty vehicles, and three to four times more than will oil at $60 per barrel for light-duty vehicles running on diesel," says Lewis.
As fossil fuels phase out, will battery technology improve quickly enough to support the transition to renewables?
(Score: 3, Informative) by RS3 on Thursday September 05 2019, @04:57AM (4 children)
Well, I'll say that battery systems are pretty poorly designed considering the limitations and best electrical environment for the cells. Li-ion by definition have much better charge, temperature, and discharge control. But for example a power tool battery pack of NiCd or NiMN batteries just has a bunch of cells in series, guaranteeing that some cells will see cell-killing reverse-bias when the pack is close to discharge state and the user pushes harder on the drill. But at some point, the cost of a sophisticated control circuit is probably not worth it.
400A charger is a bit much. A guy I know has had a Chevy Bolt for 2.5+ years and loves it. He installed a 40 A (or is it 60...) charger. His house has 2 200A panels, which is becoming common in "luxury" homes. I forget how many miles he has on the Bolt- a lot- and he said the battery still has 85% of the original range- I think he gets 270 miles on a full charge.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by JoeMerchant on Thursday September 05 2019, @03:11PM (3 children)
The point at which that control circuit would raise the manufacture cost of your power drill from $10.75 to $11.02, meaning it has to retail for $49.95 instead of $39.95, meaning that sales volume will be reduced by 80% in the competitive marketplace because the competition effectively lies and convinces the consumers they have those sophisticated control circuit benefits in their product, whether they do or not.
And, besides, why sell one drill for $49.95 every 30 years when you can sell a POS for $39.95 every 3 years?
ISO and similar regulations requiring LiIon charging safety circuitry are a very good thing... I'd much rather pay more for my consumer goods than have spontaneous fires all over the place and the occasional Chinese factory owner apologizing via suicide.
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(Score: 3, Interesting) by RS3 on Thursday September 05 2019, @04:29PM (2 children)
I don't know whether to laugh or cry. Sadly of course you're right.
What bugs me is the eternal lack of choice. I would hope that someone would offer an improved battery pack. If I had the time and motivation, I'd sell upgraded battery packs with individual cell monitoring and control. I know I'd only sell a few, but if you've ever done construction and all of your batteries are weak or dead, and new ones are $90 in stores, you get frustrated and wish you could have bought something that would last longer- you'd gladly pay for it. Even just a bunch of Schottky diodes would stop the reverse-bias problem. Yes, you'd lose some power, but greatly increase the battery life, and you might be willing to do that the next time around. I've noticed even LiIon packs don't do individual cell control.
BTW, I'm not talking about $40 toys, I mean real professional DeWalt, Milwaukee, Hilti, Makita, Festool, etc.
Something else I notice in people: they'd rather buy "new" anyway. I just inherited a bunch of NiMH power tools (I already had some of that brand) because my friend decided to buy new LiIon ones. He could have bought the retrofit LiIon batteries, but he fell prey to the marketing word "New!"
But another factor- in business you get to depreciate things and then write them off, generally 3 years, so that drives much of the market behavior too.
(Score: 3, Informative) by JoeMerchant on Thursday September 05 2019, @04:46PM (1 child)
I've noticed over the years that "respected" brand names, whether that's Milwaukee, Denon, Maytag, or whatever, tend to cash out and start selling high volume trash eventually.
I bought into the Kobalt line of rechargeable tools, I got sucked in by the impact driver - had a need, borrowed a Bosch from a friend, it was a very good thing for the application - then comes the drill, leaf blower, string trimmer, etc... At least their battery packs are only $50 for a 4Ah pack, and I think they have one more cell in them as compared to the competition - voltage label shenanigans notwithstanding.
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(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 06 2019, @12:02AM
Its when they get sold to someone else. All three of the examples you gave was acquired by one of their competitors. Once that happened, there is no downside to using their name to sell crap. You get the money either way and simultaneously make your own brand look better by comparison.