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from the instead-of-batteries-just-use-a-very-long-extension-cord dept.
The future is not looking bright for oil, according to a new report that claims the commodity would have to be priced at $10-$20 a barrel to remain competitive as a transport fuel.
The new research, from BNP Paribas, says that the economics of renewable energy make it impossible for oil to compete at current prices. The author of the report, global head of sustainability Mark Lewis, says that "renewable electricity has a short-run marginal cost of zero, is cleaner environmentally, much easier to transport and could readily replace up to 40% of global oil demand".
[...] The report, Wells, Wires, And Wheels... Eroci And The Tough Road Ahead For Oil, introduces the concept of the Energy Return on Capital Invested (EROCI), focusing on the energy return on a $100bn outlay on oil and renewables where the energy is being used to power cars and other light-duty vehicles (LDVs).
"For a given capital outlay on oil and renewables, how much useful energy at the wheel do we get? Our analysis indicates that for the same capital outlay today, new wind and solar-energy projects in tandem with battery electric vehicles will produce six to seven times more useful energy at the wheels than will oil at $60 per barrel for gasoline powered light-duty vehicles, and three to four times more than will oil at $60 per barrel for light-duty vehicles running on diesel," says Lewis.
As fossil fuels phase out, will battery technology improve quickly enough to support the transition to renewables?
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 05 2019, @05:17AM (3 children)
no. hydrogen is wrong. it is closer to being a sub atomic particle then a badly burned piece of wood, coal.
lookinto economics of hydrogen. it's miserable. if hydrogen needs to be made artifically, then less then half of original energy invested hits the tyre. dont do hydrogen, unless you wanna make helium++.
also consider the technology/machinary required to handle/produce/store hydrogen. it's not something anbody can do.
consider how tight all tolerances need to be. duct tape goes out the window with hydrogen. if the world ends, hydrogen tech is first to go.
anybody can make liquid fuels, say corn and ferment and go got moonshine. chop down a tree, dry it and burn it covered bt dirt and you can burn it to make iron and steam powered stuff, like a water pump.
hydrogen is levels of industry upon levels upon levels of industry. theres noway you are going to service and manage it yurself. hydrogen is the cloud version of energy sources: everything needs to be managed by "experts" and you are 100% dependant on them ...
now, on topic, batteries are great but ... it's a expensive energy tank to build (and continue building).
also electricty is "fickle". once the battery powered lawnmower can beat an indestructable honda one, left in the shed, collecting dust, exposed to temp and weather and starts after 5 pulls ... maybe batteries are ready ... today it's def. better then refilling your lawnmower with hydrogen ... at 200 bar?
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 05 2019, @06:09AM (1 child)
Here's the thing. ICE is gone.
I agree it's a sad thing. I grew up with it, and yes it's low tech. But we're in the process of moving to carbon sequestering, let alone not creating more! Good or bad, right or wrong, that's where it's at. Realism must be employed here...
So, with that realism? Don't worry about the tech level to make fuel. Bear in mind that H2 has been used to generate electricity for 70+ years, in industrial applications. It was used on moon shots, in the 60s! Creating fuel cells is simple, easy, and hell you can even just burn H2. Generating H2 is simplistic, and can be done with water and two electrodes. If the 'shit hits the fan', it won't be until a rebuild that people make their own fuel.
Any scenario you can imagine, from zombies to plague to war, don't think you'll be growing crops, or having farm animals with a lot of fat on them, or even harvesting fat from dead humans.. because, raiders and "those that want what you have" will be there too.. taking down any infrastructure you build.
When in that scenario, you'll be scavenging... whatever the fuel is.
So you'll only be making your own fuel when things start to recover. And H2 really isn't that high tech. For example, you can easily make H2 from natural gas... and even keep the carbon dioxide (which is useful when creating many chemicals..)
https://www.engadget.com/2017/02/21/tiny-engine-turns-natural-gas-into-hydrogen/ [engadget.com]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 05 2019, @09:43AM
> Here's the thing. ICE is gone.
In that case, Long Live ICE! Come back in 10 years and let me know how your statement stands up. The reality is more like: ICE will lose some market share to other types of power for transportation, but at the same time it will also keep improving in efficiency and emissions. See my other AC post for references, #889772.
(Score: 2) by Reziac on Friday September 06 2019, @04:30AM
Five pulls, hell... I found a beat-up old two-stroke Lawn Boy (how old? pre-1965) sitting in the bushes where it had been for 20 years or more (judging by the known history of the place and the depth of the detritus covering it) ... poured gas in the carb, two pulls and it started right up and ran like brand new. (We then spent six hours cutting weeds together, on just one gallon of gas. Think of all the steel and machining we saved by not needing a new lawn mower.)
But yeah, good point -- how impractical is it to replace all those bush-use small IC engines with battery power, let alone with H2 ?? What's the error tolerance on the required tech?
Meanwhile the old IC engine scrapes by on anything with enough carbon chains, and if Things Fall Apart, it can keep on running.
I do find it amusing that the people most in favor of tech with no margin for error are also those yelling loudest about how everything is going to fall apart if we don't switch over. Since a total switchover is at best a matter of decades, and possibly centuries, what happens when things fall apart when you're only halfway switched? (Since we're doing dystopias today...)
And there is no Alkibiades to come back and save us from ourselves.