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posted by janrinok on Sunday September 22 2019, @03:38AM   Printer-friendly
from the fly-in-the-ointment dept.

Submitted via IRC for Bytram

'Worse Than Anyone Expected': Air Travel Emissions Vastly Outpace Predictions

Greenhouse gas emissions from commercial air travel are growing at a faster clip than predicted in previous, already dire, projections, according to new research — putting pressure on airline regulators to take stronger action as they prepare for a summit next week.

The United Nations aviation body forecasts that airplane emissions of carbon dioxide, a major greenhouse gas, will reach just over 900 million metric tons in 2018, and then triple by 2050.

But the new research, from the International Council on Clean Transportation, found that emissions from global air travel may be increasing more than 1.5 times as fast as the U.N. estimate. The researchers analyzed nearly 40 million flights around the world last year.

"Airlines, for all intents and purposes, are becoming more fuel efficient. But we're seeing demand outstrip any of that," said Brandon Graver, who led the new study. "The climate challenge for aviation is worse than anyone expected."

Airlines in recent years have invested in lighter, more fuel-efficient aircraft, and have explored powering their planes with biofuel.

Over all, air travel accounts for about 2.5 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions — a far smaller share than emissions from passenger cars or power plants. Still, one study found that the rapid growth in plane emissions could mean that by 2050, aviation could take up a quarter of the world's "carbon budget," or the amount of carbon dioxide emissions permitted to keep global temperature rise to within 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.

[...] The decision by Greta Thunberg, a young climate activist, to sail across the Atlantic rather than travel by air ahead of her speech at the United Nations next week, has refocused attention on aviation's role in causing climate change and its consequences, including sea-level rise and more intense heat waves, hurricanes, flooding and drought.

Climate protesters have said they plan to gather in Montreal next week, where airline regulators are set to hold their own summit.

William Raillant-Clark, a spokesman for the U.N. aviation body, stood by its emissions projection, which he said was "the most up-to-date" and provided "a clear picture on the future environmental trends." He added that the group "endorses and welcomes wholeheartedly" calls for the aviation industry to address climate change with greater urgency.


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  • (Score: 2) by Hartree on Sunday September 22 2019, @05:32PM (4 children)

    by Hartree (195) on Sunday September 22 2019, @05:32PM (#897168)

    Bingo! That was exactly my point.

    Individual transport usually pollutes more per passenger mile than group transport like planes, trains and buses.

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  • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Sunday September 22 2019, @07:30PM (3 children)

    by JoeMerchant (3937) on Sunday September 22 2019, @07:30PM (#897224)

    And, per passenger mile, the Space Shuttle is one of the most efficient (and safe) forms of transport ever created....

    The real question is: how much do people really NEED to travel. It's not an easy one to answer, for instance: sales, definitely more effective in person, but, is sending one sales rep all over a million square mile territory really a necessary approach? As long as jet travel is as cheap as it is, it will be the economically sensible thing to do.

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    • (Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday September 22 2019, @10:02PM (1 child)

      by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Sunday September 22 2019, @10:02PM (#897265) Journal

      The real question is: how much do people really NEED to travel.

      Well, how many people really NEED to exist? For real NEEDs, there just isn't the need for more than three people. Any residual travel after this reasonable population reduction would be at my direction and by definition NEEDed. The real question is when are we going to implement this? I'm tired of looking at all these unNEEDed people. It's so inefficient.

    • (Score: 2) by Hartree on Monday September 23 2019, @02:10AM

      by Hartree (195) on Monday September 23 2019, @02:10AM (#897357)

      Teleconferencing has its downsides, but environmental impact certainly isn't one of them.

      I've long been a taker of stay-cations. There's usually lots to do near where your at, though I must admit, you have to really like corn and soybean fields for scenery if it's central Illinois.