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Arthur T Knackerbracket has found the following story:
Recently published climate research led by Sanjiv Kumar, a professor in Auburn University's School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, has already provided the basis of a pioneering new outlook product that is capable of forecasting drought.
Kumar and his team published their findings in the May issue of the Journal of Climate.
In August, the Massachusetts-based Climate Impact Company introduced an innovative new forecasting product developed based on that research. An article and accompanying chart on the company's website now exhibits the most likely dry or drought-prone areas in North America for meteorological autumn, or September, October and November. The article cites the soil reemergence process as its source, breaking down the science behind it.
"It is striking to see the speed at which basic climate science research can deliver a practical solution nationally and internationally—in this case, less than four months," said Kumar, who leads Auburn University's Climate, Water and Society, or CWS, Lab in the School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences. "This development highlights the way in which basic climate research can fuel practical solutions world-wide."
[...] School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences Dean Janaki Alavalapati said the rapid development of a forecast product based on Kumar's research affirms that the findings will significantly affect climate science in the years to come.
"The findings that Dr. Kumar and his team have made in this research represent a major breakthrough in terms of the role of the land in climate predictability science," Alavalapati said. "This could result in substantially improved predictability of drought, which could positively impact the lives of people affected by drought each year and affect the decisions of natural resource managers and policymakers."
(Score: 2) by Rupert Pupnick on Sunday October 06 2019, @03:57PM (2 children)
They can’t say if it’s accurate without comparing the outcome to the prediction. And that could take some time.
They need to show their prediction track record before laying claim to a breakthrough, IMO.
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Sunday October 06 2019, @04:12PM (1 child)
Well, they could(-ish) if they hadn't been tweaking the numbers on climate data to the point where they need to be in the fiction section rather than the reference section. You just only give the model data up to say 1970 and ask it to make predictions on climate events that've already happened but it doesn't have data on. Ain't perfect but with true input you should be able to see whether it's worth pursuing further at least.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 2) by Rupert Pupnick on Sunday October 06 2019, @05:00PM
On further reading, the article on the Climate Impact Company website explains that they use standard rainfall estimates as input to the drought model. The drought estimates generarated are based on measurements of how dry the soil is, not how much rainfall is predicted. A local farmer can probably make the same estimates based on experience and observation, so this doesn’t seem all that useful considering the effort you have to go through to get data.
This is not a breakthrough.