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posted by Fnord666 on Tuesday October 29 2019, @04:28PM   Printer-friendly
from the 15-hour-work-week dept.

In 1930, a year into the Great Depression, John Maynard Keynes sat down to write about the economic possibilities of his grandchildren. Despite widespread gloom as the global economic order fell to its knees, the British economist remained upbeat, saying that the ‘prevailing world depression … blind[s] us to what is going on under the surface’. In his essay, he predicted that in 100 years’ time, ie 2030, society would have advanced so far that we would barely need to work. The main problem confronting countries such as Britain and the United States would be boredom, and people might need to ration out work in ‘three-hour shifts or a 15-hour week [to] put off the problem’. At first glance, Keynes seems to have done a woeful job of predicting the future. In 1930, the average worker in the US, the UK, Australia and Japan spent 45 to 48 hours at work. Today, that is still up around 38 hours.

Keynes has a legendary stature as one of the fathers of modern economics – responsible for much of how we think about monetary and fiscal policy. He is also famous for his quip at economists who deal only in long-term predictions: ‘In the long run, we are all dead.’ And his 15-hour working week prediction might have been more on the mark than it first appears.

If we wanted to produce as much as Keynes’s countrymen did in the 1930s, we wouldn’t need everyone to work even 15 hours per week. If you adjust for increases in labour productivity, it could be done in seven or eight hours, 10 in Japan (see graph below). These increases in productivity come from a century of automation and technological advances: allowing us to produce more stuff with less labour. In this sense, modern developed countries have way overshot Keynes prediction – we need to work only half the hours he predicted to match his lifestyle.

The progress over the past 90 years is not only apparent when considering workplace efficiency, but also when taking into account how much leisure time we enjoy. First consider retirement: a deal with yourself to work hard while you’re young and enjoy leisure time when you’re older. In 1930, most people never reached retirement age, simply labouring until they died. Today, people live well past retirement, living a third of their life work-free. If you take the work we do while we’re young and spread it across a total adult lifetime, it works out to less than 25 hours per week. There’s a second factor that boosts the amount of leisure time we enjoy: a reduction in housework. The ubiquity of washing machines, vacuum cleaners and microwave ovens means that the average US household does almost 30 hours less housework per week than in the 1930s. This 30 hours isn’t all converted into pure leisure. Indeed, some of it has been converted into regular work, as more women – who shoulder the major share of unpaid domestic labour – have moved into the paid labour force. The important thing is that, thanks to progress in productivity and efficiency, we all have more control over how we spend our time.

So if today’s advanced economies have reached (or even exceeded) the point of productivity that Keynes predicted, why are 30- to 40-hour weeks still standard in the workplace? And why doesn’t it feel like much has changed? This is a question about both human nature – our ever-increasing expectations of a good life – as well as how work is structured across societies.


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  • (Score: 5, Touché) by Gaaark on Tuesday October 29 2019, @05:49PM (8 children)

    by Gaaark (41) on Tuesday October 29 2019, @05:49PM (#913359) Journal

    and what the rich don't seem to understand is that the more people who have money to buy their products, the more will buy their products, the more money they'll make.

    No: if they cut their employees to nothing, then nobody will be able to buy their products seems to be a viable profit venture for them.

    whatsthatsaying? Stupid is as stupid lays off all their workers....or something something....

    It's like when talk of recession/depression starts: corporations start laying off people which starts the recession/depression, which means you have to layoff more people which deepens the recession/depression.....
    .....or, hey! Keep people working and the recession/depression won't happen, especially if the media stops reporting that there is a recession/depression......

    ....or, hey! Stupid is as stupid does. Being rich doesn't always mean you have intelligence.... google it...or read Ayn Rands Atlas Shrugged.... 80 FUCKING PAGES OF "A IS A AND B IS B" AND NONSENSE LIKE THAT.... FUCKING READ IT! SHITE GARBAGE.

    --
    --- Please remind me if I haven't been civil to you: I'm channeling MDC. ---Gaaark 2.0 ---
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  • (Score: 4, Insightful) by PartTimeZombie on Tuesday October 29 2019, @09:11PM

    by PartTimeZombie (4827) on Tuesday October 29 2019, @09:11PM (#913428)

    ...when talk of recession/depression starts:

    The rich demand taxpayers prop up their businesses, (again).

  • (Score: 3, Touché) by c0lo on Tuesday October 29 2019, @10:33PM

    by c0lo (156) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday October 29 2019, @10:33PM (#913471) Journal

    No: if they cut their employees to nothing, then nobody will be able to buy their products seems to be a viable profit venture for them.

    Meh, if I can't get any richer, getting the others poorer may be a good substitute, it maintains the differential. That's where a competition** oriented society drives you.

    ** Contrast with 'cooperation'

    --
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0 https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
  • (Score: 4, Insightful) by mhajicek on Tuesday October 29 2019, @10:52PM (1 child)

    by mhajicek (51) on Tuesday October 29 2019, @10:52PM (#913479)

    "It is not enough that I succeed, others must fail."

    --
    The spacelike surfaces of time foliations can have a cusp at the surface of discontinuity. - P. Hajicek
    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 30 2019, @02:18AM

      by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 30 2019, @02:18AM (#913544)

      Heh, such a simple yet powerful explanation.

  • (Score: 2) by legont on Wednesday October 30 2019, @02:13AM

    by legont (4179) on Wednesday October 30 2019, @02:13AM (#913537)

    Rich do understand. The issue is that they compete with each other so anyone who is not ripping poor would become poor herself.

    --
    "Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
  • (Score: 5, Insightful) by Phoenix666 on Wednesday October 30 2019, @12:58PM

    by Phoenix666 (552) on Wednesday October 30 2019, @12:58PM (#913672) Journal

    What you said reminds me of a conversation I had with a cop a few years ago. Thieves had stolen flowers out of planters at the school. I mused, "Why would they steal the flowers and spend more time and money trying to keep the things alive after the shock of being uprooted, when they could walk a block away and get a dozen fresh for a couple dollars?" The cop said, "That's because you are thinking like a normal person."

    The rich don't think like a normal person. It is physically, biologically impossible for psychopaths to understand concepts like cooperation or reason when they lack the actual circuitry to perceive empathy.

    --
    Washington DC delenda est.
  • (Score: 1) by Goghit on Thursday October 31 2019, @06:28AM (1 child)

    by Goghit (6530) on Thursday October 31 2019, @06:28AM (#914050)

    No.

    I got 50 pages into Atlas Shrugged before I quit. I want that 50 pages of my life back.

    • (Score: 2) by Gaaark on Thursday October 31 2019, @10:05AM

      by Gaaark (41) on Thursday October 31 2019, @10:05AM (#914075) Journal

      Yeah...I know how you feel.

      --
      --- Please remind me if I haven't been civil to you: I'm channeling MDC. ---Gaaark 2.0 ---