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posted by chromas on Friday November 08 2019, @08:10AM   Printer-friendly

Unless warming is slowed, emperor penguins will be marching towards extinction:

Emperor penguins are some of the most striking and charismatic animals on Earth, but a new study from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) has found that a warming climate may render them extinct by the end of this century. The study, which was part of an international collaboration between scientists, published Nov. 7, 2019, in the journal Global Change Biology.

"If global climate keeps warming at the current rate, we expect emperor penguins in Antarctica to experience an 86 percent decline by the year 2100," says Stephanie Jenouvrier, a seabird ecologist at WHOI and lead author on the paper. "At that point, it is very unlikely for them to bounce back."

The fate of the penguins is largely tied to the fate of sea ice, which the animals use as a home base for breeding, feeding and molting, she notes. Emperor penguins tend to build their colonies on ice with extremely specific conditions—it must be locked in to the shoreline of the Antarctic continent, but close enough to open seawater to give the birds access to food for themselves and their young. As climate warms, however, that sea ice will gradually disappear, robbing the birds of their habitat, food sources, and ability to raise their chicks.

[...] Under the 1.5 degree [Celsius maximum global temperature increase sought under the Paris Accord] scenario, the study found that only 5 percent of sea ice would be lost by 2100, causing a 19 percent drop in the number of penguin colonies. If the planet warms by 2 degrees, however, those numbers increase dramatically: the loss of sea ice nearly triples, and more than a third of existing colonies disappear. The 'business as usual' scenario is even more dire, Jenouvrier adds, with an almost complete loss of the colonies ensured.

"Under that scenario, the penguins will effectively be marching towards extinction over the next century," she says.

Journal Reference:
Stéphanie Jenouvrier, The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins[$]. Global Change Biology, 2019; DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14864


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  • (Score: 4, Informative) by maxwell demon on Friday November 08 2019, @11:35AM (4 children)

    by maxwell demon (1608) on Friday November 08 2019, @11:35AM (#917833) Journal
    --
    The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
    Starting Score:    1  point
    Moderation   +2  
       Insightful=1, Informative=1, Total=2
    Extra 'Informative' Modifier   0  
    Karma-Bonus Modifier   +1  

    Total Score:   4  
  • (Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Friday November 08 2019, @12:21PM (3 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Friday November 08 2019, @12:21PM (#917839)

    They don't look at enough cycles to see the effect. The sun was more active than average for cycles 17-23 (~1933-2009), and less active than average for cycles 12-16 (~1880-1933): https://i.ibb.co/vvdRhnt/sunspots.png [i.ibb.co]

    The drop in activity began last cycle (# 24) and the next one (#25) is expected to be half as active as that: https://www.nasa.gov/feature/ames/solar-activity-forecast-for-next-decade-favorable-for-exploration [nasa.gov]

    • (Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Friday November 08 2019, @01:37PM (2 children)

      by Anonymous Coward on Friday November 08 2019, @01:37PM (#917848)

      You are a fool fool head. Come to the beach with me . Please.

      It is not 5 2019 and we are in trouble idiot. No chance of spots for decades idiot.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday November 08 2019, @08:33PM (1 child)

        by Anonymous Coward on Friday November 08 2019, @08:33PM (#918017)

        The above was a test. Someone marked the informative post troll and left the troll post alone. No doubt they are an avid democrat.

        • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday November 09 2019, @02:49AM

          by Anonymous Coward on Saturday November 09 2019, @02:49AM (#918137)

          I assume he's using the Mayan calendar. Cycle ended in 2012, game's over.