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EVs are now outselling manual transmissions in the US
The manual transmission continues to have a pretty tough time here in America, with buyers avoiding manual-transmission cars in record numbers. Such record numbers that now EV sales have surpassed sales of vehicles with manual transmissions, according to data from J.D. Power and reported recently by Driving.ca.
Why is that important? Well, the venerable stick shift has been around since someone decided that cars needed more than one gear. While its previous popularity has been eclipsed by the automatic transmission for decades, the manual transmission has managed to hang on.
According to J.D. Power, manual transmissions have approximately 1.1% market penetration in America, which for many enthusiasts is a fairly grim figure to see. Comparatively, electric vehicles -- which have really only been commercially available to the public for the last decade or so -- now represent 1.9% of car sales in the US.
A big chunk of the reason for this likely lies in good old-fashioned availability. The manual transmission used to be the cheap transmission of choice. It was what you got when you were buying a small, affordable car and didn't want to shell out several thousand dollars for an automatic.
Now, most of those same small, affordable cars are only sold as automatics. The manual transmission was also traditionally the way you'd go if you wanted to buy a high-performance car because old automatics were often slow to shift and shifted at the wrong time. That's also changed, with many of the most high-performing models from companies offered with either paddle-shifted dual-clutch transmissions or performance-tuned automatics.
It was only a matter of time as fewer and fewer cars with manual transmissions are being manufactured at the same time as more and more electric vehicles are being built. Who here saw this coming so soon?
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday November 09 2019, @10:45AM (26 children)
You can barely buy a truck with a manual transmission any more, even though a lot of buyers would rather have them. Ford and Chevy don't make them at all in the heavy duty trucks, and the Ram can't get them in combination with the high power engine.
Meanwhile, most of the proper sports cars have gone completely away, the only one that's left is the Miata (where manual transmissions are still quite popular), and BMWs, Porsches and Corvettes which are bought as status symbols more often than for driving enjoyment.
So the two segments where manual transmissions are actually desirable, there's almost no way to get them. Nobody wants them for grandma's Buick, and never did (although the manual transmission turbo Volvos had some stealth popularity).
(Score: 3, Informative) by damnbunni on Saturday November 09 2019, @12:56PM (4 children)
The reason the manufacturers don't make those vehicles with a manual transmission is that they didn't sell.
If 'a lot' of buyers would rather have a truck with a stick, they would still offer them. But 'a lot' don't. 'a few' do. It's not worth the design cost.
Same with sports cars. Modern high-end automatics are faster than a stick. And they're more efficient, too. A stick-shift Civic gives up about 5 MPG to the automatic.
The only reason to buy a car with a stick is that you find it fun. Which is a perfectly valid reason to get one. But not enough people find rowing their own to be fun that it's worth selling many models that way.
(Score: 2) by inertnet on Saturday November 09 2019, @01:31PM (3 children)
Another reason why high end sports cars don't make manual transmissions anymore, is because with their high powered engines, the clutch and transmission can't be protected from driver error. One little mistake can burn the clutch or ruin the transmission, or even the engine, resulting in enormous repair costs. Car owners often tried to claim warranty, so in response the manufacturers stopped offering manual transmissions.
(Score: 2) by RS3 on Saturday November 09 2019, @03:49PM (2 children)
All of the above can be damaged, plus axles, differential gears, "U"-joints, CV joints, tires, etc.
Also, the PCM (Powertrain Control Module) controls the engine and automatic transmission together for best power, efficiency, stability, emissions, etc. and you lose that control with a manual.
I've replaced clutches in good old-fashioned rear-drive vehicles. Not fun, but doable by a reasonably handy person and some inspiration. Clutches are much much more difficult to replace now, even in rear-drive trucks- there's so much more stuff to disconnect now.
More and more vehicles are 4wd / AWD, and again, so so much more difficult to replace a clutch.
Ask anyone who hauls heavy things or plows snow, etc.- very very busy with a clutch, and you'll burn up clutches fast.
You can often still manually shift an AT, as I often do, mainly to prevent unnecessary shifting when I'm in stop-and-go traffic.
Interesting thought: with electronic throttles, and a motor-controlled clutch, you could have an electronic clutch pedal and the PCM could control the throttle and clutch and not burn up the clutch. Not as much fun as a real sports car, but might be a good compromise for people who love stick in stop-and-go traffic (ugh!).
(Score: 3, Interesting) by inertnet on Saturday November 09 2019, @04:21PM (1 child)
In response to your interesting thought, theoretically it shouldn't be too hard to add such a clutch pedal to an existing dual-clutch transmission (DCT).
(Score: 2) by RS3 on Saturday November 09 2019, @11:33PM
Admittedly I'm firmly clamped onto the back porch of technology. Dual-clutch trans... oh wow, that's pretty cool. Here's an interesting one: https://www.magna.com/products/power-vision/product/dual-clutch-transmissions [magna.com] Wonder how much they cost...
So yeah, I still don't know the answer, but a clutch pedal with some kind of spring for feel, and a sensor (potentiometer) and the PCM could actuate the clutches for you. It looks like the concept is that you're shifting, or pre-selecting the next gear, then hit the clutch and you switch to the other clutch which drives that gear, with very minimal decouple time.
Hmmm... too new to me, so I'll have to study more, but I've occasionally gone from like 2 to 4, and with the DCT, one would have to decouple the even-gear clutch, shift, and re-engage the same clutch. So you lose the advantage of the minimal decouple time the DCT gives you. Gotta think some more when more awake...
Automatics have come such a long way. 7-speed is not uncommon. The gas mileage is usually higher with automatics these days. I'd have a stick for a fun car (well, I have one but who knows if I'll ever get it on the road...)
(Score: 2) by VLM on Saturday November 09 2019, @03:22PM (12 children)
They're dead in the "eco" marketplace, which you hadn't mentioned.
Prius and strange CVT designs have eaten into the market from one direction, and in the other direction modern manufacturing makes a manual pointless as there's no longer a performance or economy or reliability gain by going manual.
As for my Yaris, manual curb weight would be 2315 Lbs although I own an automatic at 2335 Lbs. Yeah I could lose 20 pounds thus gaining around 1 percent better performance, but its just not worth the hassle. I'd rather take 20 pounds of junk out of the trunk, or go on a diet?
"Back when I was a kid" you needed a special transmission hoist to swap out an auto as a GM Hydramatic was around 200 pounds and you could only get maybe 50K to 100K out of a 70s American car, so you needed to swap transmissions... Now a days my Yaris XP130 series has a U340E transmission that'll last at least the life of the car (maybe a quarter million miles?). I wonder how rare transmission swaps are now a days, like do garages usually own a transmission hoist or is it so rare they just borrow/rent in the unusual event of needing one?
In the "old days" of slush-boxes autos were very slow. Unsurprisingly modern tech makes autos shift faster and more reliably than manuals can shift, so SOME cars under SOME conditions are faster 0-60 with autos than manuals. In the near future I'd expect that to be 100% of cars, there's really no reason a robot would shift slower than a human other than engineering laziness.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Immerman on Saturday November 09 2019, @03:50PM (7 children)
>makes a manual pointless as there's no longer a performance or economy or reliability gain by going manual.
There is still a control factor - one of the biggest complaints I've heard about automatic transmissions is that they tend to shift at inopportune moments. And as any race car driver knows, you need to be very careful deciding when to shift, because you lose a lot of traction and control over your vehicle for a moment while the engine spins up or down to match speed with the wheels.
Of course semi-automatic transmissions/paddle-shifters can address that quite a bit, but I don't recall seeing a lot of that in pickup trucks for some reason.
(Score: 2) by VLM on Saturday November 09 2019, @08:10PM
Yeah, in turns. I'm surprised the zillions of engine computers and transmission computers don't have a steering wheel position feed plus or minus an accelerometer feed to influence that decision.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday November 09 2019, @10:02PM (5 children)
The easy solution to that is a CVT. I had manuals exclusively up until my current vehicle, as I grew up and learned to drive in the mountains. Now I've got a hybrid with a CVT, and I love the smooth acceleration (and not having to shift in city traffic). Unfortunately, I seem to be in a minority in that opinion, and people love the shift sensation so much you get stuff like Lexus' new over-complicated hybrid with the fake-shifting sensation.
(Score: 2) by RS3 on Saturday November 09 2019, @11:41PM (4 children)
When I was a teenager I had a minibike with a CVT: belt with 2 cone pulleys with mechanisms to vary the width of the cone. It was cool to hear the engine at speed, and you felt yourself accelerating. I miss that thing. Many golf carts and other utility vehicles use them.
CVT seems like a really good thing. I don't know how reliable they are, or longevity, or how expensive to repair though.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday November 10 2019, @08:00AM
the old jazz/fit had a i-DSi and CVT. the engine was 1.5 liters, 4 cylinder with eight (8!) spark plugs.
the CVT has 6 "fake" gears which steering wheel paddel could control in "manual" mode.
it would keep the manually set gear faithful until going above engine red line ... then it would override.
add some light rims and light rubber and it was fun to drive with only 98 ps.
also it was possible to "engine break" this way. shifting to lower gear when approaching a ripe red light or overtaking.
(Score: 2) by VLM on Sunday November 10 2019, @03:02PM (1 child)
My grandparents had a golf cart with one and using mid last century technology it used springs and a rubber belt and the belt longevity was about what you'd expect from a tire.
For a golf cart it was no big deal and one human could unbolt the transmission and lift it with one hand while installing a new (cheap and small) belt.
So for a car you'd need something as heavy duty and expensive as four tires worth of torque, and nobody has engineered a way to replace a beast of a belt like that quickly and cheaply.
There were application layer problems, where you can weld a trailer hitch to the back to tow boats in and out of the lake, but getting water in there screwed stuff up. We worked around the hitch weight "problem" by having kids stand on the back of boats. Note that it takes a $80K pickup truck to tow a pontoon boat at 90 mph up a hill, but a $500 used golf cart works fine up to walking speed or so, although sometimes on the ramp people had to help push.
(Score: 2) by RS3 on Sunday November 10 2019, @07:32PM
You have me chuckling: I've messed with cars a bit- not a big hotrodder but a little. I'm imagining a slipping-belt transmission making a lot of smoke behind a supercharged V8. In fact, the friction would liquefy or vaporize the belt pretty quickly.
My dad used to tell me about the first "automatic transmission"- the Buick "DynaFlow". It had 2 forward speeds using a complicated fluid-coupled torque converter and planetary gears and you had to shift it. Evidently it was not impressive.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday November 11 2019, @02:48PM
Can't speak to repair costs, but mine has almost 150k miles on it and hasn't had an issue. Not a lightweight, either, as it's in an LS600hl, which is a 5 liter V8 hybrid.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday November 10 2019, @02:40AM
I have* the manual Yaris. It gets quite a bit better mileage when driven in a sane** manner, than the auto is capable of (saw 47+mpg several times on a road trip to New Mexico, and averaged over 45mpg-- mostly 70-85mph highway driving with lots of elevation change; odometer + topping off tank method of measuring).
I also have a bad habit when driving automatics-- I put my passengers through the windshield as I slam on that huge brake pedal when trying to operate the clutch-- annoys the cars following me too. Better for everyone that I'm not forced to drive automatics.
.
*It was damn near impossible to find, though. Only 2 manual transmission (+ no extra electronic crap) Yaris hatchbacks in the entire state (California), in 2009, when I bought mine.
** No jackrabbit starts; coasting up to red lights rather than accelerating until last minute, then stomping on the brake.
(Score: 3, Informative) by Pslytely Psycho on Sunday November 10 2019, @09:37AM (2 children)
"modern manufacturing makes a manual pointless as there's no longer a performance or economy or reliability gain by going manual."
Provably false on a dynamometer. A typical performance standard transmission loses about 15-18% of the engine's power. An automatic loses 18-22%.
Alex Jones lawyer inspires new TV series: CSI Moron Division.
(Score: 2) by xorsyst on Monday November 11 2019, @10:59AM (1 child)
Provably false in theory - in reality, the vast majority of drivers are really not very good at getting high mileage out of their manual transmissions, and that's why real-life figures for equivalent autos come out better then their manual counterparts.
It's also partly why manuals remain popular in Europe, as manufacturers are allowed to quote "real world" mileage figures by hiring a pro driver to drive in the most eco-friendly way. The manuals get quite a bit higher than the autos in those figures. If you later look at real-life figures a couple of years later, the manual never get close to their advertised capabilities, whereas the autos very nearly do.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by Pslytely Psycho on Monday November 11 2019, @09:35PM
Ah, fuck. I wrote quite a nice dissertation that I had to scrap just before submitting due to a massive reading fail on my part. It was eloquent, not insulting nor dismissive, covered the points and ultimately was utterly wrong and bone-headed. I completely misunderstood your point. Glad I re-read before posting.
Never reply before coffee.
Yes you are correct, and my post should of been more clearly limited to the purely technical performance aspect as I am well aware that the art of driving a manual transmission is a fading skill, now more useful as a theft deterrent than a real world benefit of economy. Pure performance driving itself will fade out completely in a generation or so as driving itself disappears in favor of autonomous chauffeurs unless some as yet undiscovered fatal flaw shows up that renders it impossible. Something I highly doubt. In the early days the difference between a 2 speed slushbox and a 4 speed manual was so massive the worst driver got better performance, fuel economy and reliability out of a manual. Modern smooth-shift and clutchless transmissions have blurred the lines significantly and this is no longer true.
I realize I may be among the last couple of generations that has the opportunity to experience the thrill, excitement and pure joy only driving a vehicle at the edge of it's performance envelope while fully in control of all of its elements can provide.
For total fun though, nothing beats a Lenco! And it virtually guarantees even someone who can drive stick won't steal your car!
http://www.superchevy.com/how-to/transmission/sucp-0102-lenco-street-transmissions/ [superchevy.com]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJIbpijYBVQ [youtube.com]
This is very similar to a friends car, the only one I ever drove (with supervision!). His was the same year, red and not nearly as powerful as this one. Unfortunately he died from a drunk driver taking him out back in 1989. But shows they can be used on the street.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BfPoAUdvswQ [youtube.com]
Alex Jones lawyer inspires new TV series: CSI Moron Division.
(Score: 2) by Immerman on Saturday November 09 2019, @03:39PM (5 children)
Hmm... might that actually help improve the appeal of electric trucks? When your engine has a wide enough power band to not need multiple gears, you eliminate the stick in the best possible way - by removing all the problems that made you want multiple gears in the first place.
Of course I could actually see the appeal of a 2-speed transmission in a heavy duty pickup - essentially adding "granny low" in case you want to drag a house off its foundation without stressing your motor by putting huge loads on it at extreme low speeds. But that's not the sort of shifting you're going to do a lot of while driving.
Out of curiosity - what are your thoughts on semi-automatic transmissions? Where the transmission is automatic, but it only shifts when you tell it to?
(Score: 2) by RS3 on Saturday November 09 2019, @03:58PM (1 child)
As I mentioned above, I've always manually shifted automatics to some extent. Mostly to prevent unnecessary shifting- I know when I'm going to accelerate more, or when traffic is slowing ahead, and there's no reason for it to drop into 3, then back to 2 and 1. It's done with planning, thought, and control of wear-and-tear in mind.
Yes, I've seen and even driven some cars that have no manual control. Not a big fan- I'm the type to keep a car for a very long time and trans repairs can be outrageously costly. Partly because shops always want to do a full rebuild or replace it, rather than fix 1 bad valve, servo, actuator, etc. Clutches and bands rarely wear out- it's usually some electrical or solenoid valve that goes bad. I recently saw a service bulletin (that should be a recall) because the solenoid (electro-magnet) valve clogs up with metal particles because- the solenoid is a MAGNET and the particles build up and logjam. The factory fix: replace the solenoid valve, fluid, filter, and place a magnet in the bottom of the pan to trap the particles. Most trans have magnets now, but some are too small to catch enough of the particles.
(Score: 2) by RS3 on Saturday November 09 2019, @04:01PM
I meant to add: careful thoughtful manual shifting can prevent much unnecessary shifting, the resulting wear and tear, and metal particles that just accelerate the wear and clog solenoid valves. And no, filters don't trap all of the particles unfortunately. The "stuff" you'll find on a pan magnet is as fine as talcum powder.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday November 09 2019, @05:34PM (2 children)
The problem with electric trucks is that they are expected to operate far from the major urban centers where it's possible to recharge, so range becomes a problem again. Especially if you're towing.
Semi-automatic transmissions are garbage. The "only shifts when you tell it to" is not at all how they behave. They still shift any time they please. Mostly they allow you to downshift before you start to accelerate instead of hunting for gears after, but if the transmission decides it doesn't like the gear you picked, it hunts for gears anyway. They're not too great at the downshifting part, either. With a manual transmission you decide "I need third gear for this situation" and shift into third gear. With a manual transmission you think "I wonder what gear the transmission is in, and whether it is going to let me shift into third, and how many times I have to push the shifter to get there, and if I push it too fast or too slow it's not going to take it, and it's probably going to shift again anyway, and... " It's just not useful.
Supposedly the 4th generation Ram 2500/3500 actually has a decent pretend-manual mode, but I've never driven one, just the play pretend manuals from Mazda and Toyota, which are not useful.
(Score: 2) by Immerman on Saturday November 09 2019, @05:50PM
That's a good point, manual does force you to keep track of what gear you're actually in. You could do so in an automatic but that's a matter of discipline rather than necessity... which means almost nobody is going to do it.
(Score: 2) by Immerman on Saturday November 09 2019, @05:55PM
As for range - do you often drive several hundred miles in a day? Because you don't have to go to urban areas to recharge - one of the nice things about rural areas is that it's easy to run an extension cord out to your vehicle and recharge overnight. Don't even need to drive in to town to go to the gas station.
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Saturday November 09 2019, @04:49PM
That's why there are aftermarket parts makers. For the car makers, it's not worth it to produce stick shift trannies but for a manufacturer that makes niche parts as a business model, it's another story entirely.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday November 10 2019, @08:44AM
Another reason they switched to automatics in trucks is that the modern locking torque converter allows the same size engine to have more torque at the low end. This eliminates the need for lower gear ratios, improving both performance and mileage. Plus the modern ECUs can compensate for the higher loads much better than Joe Schmoe off the street can on the one occasion a year he actually gets anywhere near the capacity of the truck.