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posted by Fnord666 on Friday March 13 2020, @03:54PM   Printer-friendly
from the the-forest-of-a-lifetime dept.

Arthur T Knackerbracket has found the following story:

Large ecosystems, such as the Amazon rainforest, will collapse and disappear alarmingly quickly, once a crucial tipping point is reached, according to calculations based on real-world data.

Writing in Nature Communications, researchers from Bangor University, Southampton University and The School of Oriental & African Studies, University of London, reveal the speed at which ecosystems of different sizes will disappear, once they have reached a point beyond which they collapse -- transforming into an alternative ecosystem.

For example, once the 'point of no return' is reached, the iconic Amazon rainforest could shift to a savannah-type ecosystem with a mix of trees and grass within 50 years, according to the work.

Some scientists argue that many ecosystems are currently teetering on the edge of this precipice, with the fires and destruction both in the Amazon and in Australia.

"Unfortunately, what our paper reveals is that humanity needs to prepare for changes far sooner than expected," says joint lead author Dr Simon Willcock of Bangor University's School of Natural Sciences.

"These rapid changes to the world's largest and most iconic ecosystems would impact the benefits which they provide us with, including everything from food and materials, to the oxygen and water we need for life."

-- submitted from IRC

Gregory S. Cooper, Simon Willcock & John A. Dearing. Regime shifts occur disproportionately faster in larger ecosystems. Nature Communications, 2020 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-15029-x


Original Submission

 
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  • (Score: 4, Informative) by Phoenix666 on Friday March 13 2020, @06:12PM (3 children)

    by Phoenix666 (552) on Friday March 13 2020, @06:12PM (#970801) Journal

    Rainforests are not constant. The Amazon has changed over time [wikipedia.org]:

    There is evidence that there have been significant changes in the Amazon rainforest vegetation over the last 21,000 years through the last glacial maximum (LGM) and subsequent deglaciation. Analyses of sediment deposits from Amazon basin paleolakes and the Amazon Fan indicate that rainfall in the basin during the LGM was lower than for the present, and this was almost certainly associated with reduced moist tropical vegetation cover in the basin.[15] There is a debate, however, over how extensive this reduction was. Some scientists argue that the rainforest was reduced to small, isolated refugia separated by open forest and grassland;[16] other scientists argue that the rainforest remained largely intact but extended less far to the north, south, and east than is seen today.

    There is also evidence that the Amazonian basin was much more densely populated (and therefore deforested) in the past than now:

    However, recent anthropological findings have suggested that the region was actually densely populated. Some 5 million people may have lived in the Amazon region in AD 1500, divided between dense coastal settlements, such as that at Marajó, and inland dwellers.[26] By 1900, the population had fallen to 1 million and by the early 1980s it was less than 200,000

    Evidence of prior deforestation and widespread human habitation has been found in geoglyphs (like the Nazca Lines) that would have been created in earlier periods of deforestation, and also:

    Terra preta is found over large areas in the Amazon forest; and is now widely accepted as a product of indigenous soil management. The development of this fertile soil allowed agriculture and silviculture in the previously hostile environment; meaning that large portions of the Amazon rainforest are probably the result of centuries of human management, rather than naturally occurring as has previously been supposed.[32] In the region of the Xingu tribe, remains of some of these large settlements in the middle of the Amazon forest were found in 2003 by Michael Heckenberger and colleagues of the University of Florida. Among those were evidence of roads, bridges and large plazas

    The Wikipedia article linked above shows pictures of those.

    Additional [businessinsider.com] articles [newscientist.com] point up that the Amazon is not a pristine rainforest, but rather:

    Remote sensing [LIDAR] has revealed extensive earthworks, including cities, causeways, canals, graveyards and huge areas of ridged fields that kept crops like manioc, maize and squash clear of floods and frosts.

    Yes, let's do a better job of conserving our natural resources, but let's stop repeating myths for political reasons when scientific evidence has revealed a different picture.

    --
    Washington DC delenda est.
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  • (Score: 0, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Friday March 13 2020, @07:10PM (2 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Friday March 13 2020, @07:10PM (#970831)

    Because you are more qualified than the entire scientific community (besides those handful of shills that get their money from folks like Exon Mobile).

    Sure thing, whatever you say.

    • (Score: 1) by khallow on Friday March 13 2020, @07:57PM

      by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Friday March 13 2020, @07:57PM (#970838) Journal
      What does the entire scientific community have to do with this study? A better rebuttal would be that current human presence is more than an order of magnitude larger, and it's heavily industrialized to boot. Meaning a far greater environmental perturbation and higher risk of hitting a tipping point.
    • (Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Saturday March 14 2020, @11:53AM

      by Phoenix666 (552) on Saturday March 14 2020, @11:53AM (#971149) Journal

      I cited scientific researchers who have found evidence the Amazon was heavily populated before and much more deforested than it is now.

      You cited...nothing.

      I provided multiple links, with a limited claim.

      You gave an expansive, insulting dismissal and backed it up with nothing.

      Sure thing, whatever you say.

      --
      Washington DC delenda est.