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posted by Fnord666 on Friday March 13 2020, @03:54PM   Printer-friendly
from the the-forest-of-a-lifetime dept.

Arthur T Knackerbracket has found the following story:

Large ecosystems, such as the Amazon rainforest, will collapse and disappear alarmingly quickly, once a crucial tipping point is reached, according to calculations based on real-world data.

Writing in Nature Communications, researchers from Bangor University, Southampton University and The School of Oriental & African Studies, University of London, reveal the speed at which ecosystems of different sizes will disappear, once they have reached a point beyond which they collapse -- transforming into an alternative ecosystem.

For example, once the 'point of no return' is reached, the iconic Amazon rainforest could shift to a savannah-type ecosystem with a mix of trees and grass within 50 years, according to the work.

Some scientists argue that many ecosystems are currently teetering on the edge of this precipice, with the fires and destruction both in the Amazon and in Australia.

"Unfortunately, what our paper reveals is that humanity needs to prepare for changes far sooner than expected," says joint lead author Dr Simon Willcock of Bangor University's School of Natural Sciences.

"These rapid changes to the world's largest and most iconic ecosystems would impact the benefits which they provide us with, including everything from food and materials, to the oxygen and water we need for life."

-- submitted from IRC

Gregory S. Cooper, Simon Willcock & John A. Dearing. Regime shifts occur disproportionately faster in larger ecosystems. Nature Communications, 2020 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-15029-x


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  • (Score: 2) by corey on Friday March 13 2020, @09:18PM (9 children)

    by corey (2202) on Friday March 13 2020, @09:18PM (#970867)

    What can we do about this? How do we convince Brazil to stop logging it?

    I wish the billionaires of this world would get together and buy tens of millions of acres of it to just lock up with armed patrols.

    We can't let this happen.

    I feel like the Amazon is so important to all humanity that most of it that remains should be taken from Brazil and designated an international protected zone. Like international waters, not owned by anybody but in this case, owned by all, like a body corporate owns shared rental property. Then Brazil, which has demonstrated so far that it's incapable of managing such an important asset, can farm, mine and log what it wants on its own land.

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  • (Score: 1) by khallow on Friday March 13 2020, @09:42PM (1 child)

    by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Friday March 13 2020, @09:42PM (#970873) Journal
    Not much point to doing that, if you can't do better. The same poor people dynamics that prevent Brazil from curbing deforestation would stop most international efforts too - and you'd probably have a hostile Brazilian government to deal with too.
    • (Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday March 14 2020, @03:14PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Saturday March 14 2020, @03:14PM (#971211)

      The Brazilian government is ultimately the largest part of the problem. The current administration has been encouraging it and ignoring regulations.

      The best way to solve the problem would be to find ways of cracking down on the import of resources generated by burning down the rainforests while finding ways of helping the local communities profit by preserving the rainforest as they were. Perhaps paying a fee for maintining and a smaller one for restoration efforts. Ecotourism is also often a great option where possible. You give up some measure of what was there originally, but you gain the revenue and resources necessary to preserve a larger section.

  • (Score: 2) by legont on Friday March 13 2020, @11:08PM (4 children)

    by legont (4179) on Friday March 13 2020, @11:08PM (#970911)

    Once upon a time the US cut all her trees to get on top of the world economy. Why would Brazil behave any different?
    This whole green movement is designed to make sure Brazil never develops. Guess what, they not only want to develop, they actually want to lead the world and have the US girls for house help.

    --
    "Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
    • (Score: 1) by khallow on Saturday March 14 2020, @05:51PM (1 child)

      by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Saturday March 14 2020, @05:51PM (#971254) Journal

      This whole green movement is designed to make sure Brazil never develops.

      My take is that it's just an unintended consequence - different parts of the world with different interests and concerns.

      Guess what, they not only want to develop, they actually want to lead the world and have the US girls for house help.

      They'll have a long ways before that's possible.

      • (Score: 2) by legont on Saturday March 14 2020, @10:11PM

        by legont (4179) on Saturday March 14 2020, @10:11PM (#971340)

        I might agree with you, but nevertheless, whoever asks for sacrifices for a greater good should do it herself. One can't ask Brazil to stop cutting trees until her personal comfort is better than Brazil's.
        My point is not moral, mind you. It simply would never work otherwise. Once Brazil is better developed that the US, they will start green movement for sure.

        --
        "Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
    • (Score: 2) by corey on Sunday March 15 2020, @08:46PM (1 child)

      by corey (2202) on Sunday March 15 2020, @08:46PM (#971676)

      Because we're all fucked if they cut it, read the article.
      The difference is, the US was able to, without major ramifications to Earth's oxygen production. This is different.

      • (Score: 2) by legont on Monday March 16 2020, @02:50AM

        by legont (4179) on Monday March 16 2020, @02:50AM (#971771)

        The US is totally willing to risk extermination of life on Earth (re: Soviets) to get her goals. Therefore Brazil can, and will, get her goals no matter what.

        --
        "Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday March 14 2020, @03:12AM

    by Anonymous Coward on Saturday March 14 2020, @03:12AM (#971002)

    What can we do about this?
    Give the Amazon a Brazilian.

  • (Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Saturday March 14 2020, @11:57AM

    by Phoenix666 (552) on Saturday March 14 2020, @11:57AM (#971151) Journal

    No, that's not the answer at all.

    Brazil has the answer at hand--terra preta. Look it up. It's the man-made soil the vanished inhabitants of the Amazon basin manufactured. It's incredibly fertile. Some researchers have calculated it can produce up to eight crops a year. That's mind-boggling.

    Since they have been cutting down the trees mostly to farm, with terra preta they won't have to.

    There has been progress toward figuring out how to replicate what the natives did, and once they've cracked it they'll be set. Clearing jungle is, after all, a lot of work you'd rather not have to do if you have a better way.

    --
    Washington DC delenda est.