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posted by martyb on Friday June 05 2020, @12:03AM   Printer-friendly
from the orly? dept.

FiveThirtyEight is covering the efficacy of fact-checking and other methods to combat the spread of misinformation and disinformation. Fact-checking, after the fact, is better than nothing, it turns out. There are some common factors in the times when it has been done successfully:

Political scientists Ethan Porter and Thomas J. Wood conducted an exhaustive battery of surveys on fact-checking, across more than 10,000 participants and 13 studies that covered a range of political, economic and scientific topics. They found that 60 percent of respondents gave accurate answers when presented with a correction, while just 32 percent of respondents who were not given a correction expressed accurate beliefs. That’s pretty solid proof that fact-checking can work.

But Porter and Wood have found, alongside many other fact-checking researchers, some methods of fact-checking are more effective than others. Broadly speaking, the most effective fact checks have this in common:

  1. They are from highly credible sources (with extra credit for those that are also surprising, like Republicans contradicting other Republicans or Democrats contradicting other Democrats).
  2. They offer a new frame for thinking about the issue (that is, they don’t simply dismiss a claim as “wrong” or “unsubstantiated”).
  3. They don’t directly challenge one’s worldview and identity.
  4. They happen early, before a false narrative gains traction.

It is as much about psychology as actually rebutting the disinformation because factors like partisanship and worldview have strong effects, and it is hard to reach people inside their social control media echo chambers from an accurate source they will accept.

[Though often incorrectly attributed to Mark Twain, one is reminded of the adage: “A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is still putting on its shoes”. --Ed.]

Previously:
(2020) Nearly Half of Twitter Accounts Pushing to Reopen America May be Bots
(2019) Russians Engaging in Ongoing 'Information Warfare,' FBI Director Says
(2019) How Fake News Spreads Like a Real Virus
(2019) More and More Countries are Mounting Disinformation Campaigns Online
(2019) At Defcon, Teaching Disinformation Campaigns Is Child's Play
(2018) Why You Stink at Fact-Checking
(2017) Americans Are “Under Siege” From Disinformation
(2015) Education Plus Ideology Exaggerates Rejection of Reality


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  • (Score: 2) by takyon on Friday June 05 2020, @10:48AM

    by takyon (881) <takyonNO@SPAMsoylentnews.org> on Friday June 05 2020, @10:48AM (#1003664) Journal

    Reasonable post. But let me throw this out here: Poll results can take days or weeks to reflect the mood caused by current events. And Hillary was dealing with the Comey investigation just days before Election Day. Comey was the MVP of the Trump campaign. He threw and withdrew an October Surprise, sparking a lot of bad press for Hillary right in the final moments of the campaign. Clinton apparently blames Sanders for her loss, but Comey may be the one person on the planet most responsible for the outcome.

    On the electoral vote margin, it was still just a handful of states that swung the election, with very close vote counts in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. A shift of less than 1% of votes between Clinton, Trump, and "eh, I can't be bothered" would have changed the outcome.

    If you are right about modeling, maybe polling is just done for good, and forecasters need to use more cerebral Big Data methods to correctly predict the outcome. Like measuring the mood of people on social media without asking them anything, or paying to insert stuff into their feeds to see how they react to it.

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