SoylentNews is people
SoylentNews is powered by your submissions, so send in your scoop. Only 17 submissions in the queue.
SoylentNews
posted by
martyb
on Friday July 10 2020, @07:39AM
from the blizzards-and-downpours-and-lightning-oh-my! dept.
from the blizzards-and-downpours-and-lightning-oh-my! dept.
Tesla 'very close' to full self-driving, Musk says:
Tesla will be able to make its vehicles completely autonomous by the end of this year, founder Elon Musk has said.
It was already "very close" to achieving the basic requirements of this "level-five" autonomy, which requires no driver input, he said.
Tesla's current, level-two Autopilot requires the driver to remain alert and ready to act, with hands on the wheel.
But a future software update could activate level-five autonomy in the cars - with no new hardware, he said.
Regulatory hurdles could block implementation even if the remaining technical hurdles are overcome.
This discussion has been archived.
No new comments can be posted.
Elon Musk Says Full Self-Driving Tesla Tech "Very Close"
|
Log In/Create an Account
| Top
| 78 comments
| Search Discussion
The Fine Print: The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. We are not responsible for them in any way.
The last time I saw him he was walking down Lover's Lane holding his own hand.
-- Fred Allen
(Score: 2) by Immerman on Friday July 10 2020, @01:57PM (9 children)
Almost there - all that's left is the last 10% that takes 90% of the work.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by DannyB on Friday July 10 2020, @03:01PM (8 children)
Incorrect. It actually works like this. As one would expect.
The first 90% of the result takes 90% of the work, time and cost.
The remaining 10% of the result takes the other 90% of the work, time and cost.
To transfer files: right-click on file, pick Copy. Unplug mouse, plug mouse into other computer. Right-click, paste.
(Score: 2) by Immerman on Friday July 10 2020, @04:08PM (4 children)
I have never heard it expressed that way. In fact, the Pareto principle (usually referring to the 80:20 rule rather than the 90:10 rule often used in software development) is often applied to distributions as well - e.g. 20% of the population owns 80% of the wealth. Not the smartass *other* 80%. 80% of the total.
You get your project 90% done - it's basically working, all that's left is the the final few features and smoothing out the rough edges, handling corner cases, etc. Which when completed will have taken 90% of the total amount of work spent on the project.
(Score: 2) by Freeman on Friday July 10 2020, @04:42PM (3 children)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chunkamui/2018/02/28/driverless-cars-90-percent-done-90-percent-left-to-go/#54288ca520a0 [forbes.com]
I've heard it before, not exactly sure how far back it goes, but it's a reasonably popular expression.
Joshua 1:9 "Be strong and of a good courage; be not afraid, neither be thou dismayed: for the Lord thy God is with thee"
(Score: 2) by Immerman on Friday July 10 2020, @08:29PM (2 children)
Okay, so the 90-90 saying does exist. Still makes no logical sense (even if the meaning is clear), and I strongly suspect it's a bastardization of the 90/10 rule*, which itself is a more extreme version of the 80/20 rule, aka the Pareto Principle, which was coined in 1876.
*a dramatically weaker bastardization at that, since it claims the 90% completion mark is the halfway point in terms of labor (the "other 90%", aka 50%, still to go), rather than the 10% mark
(Score: 2) by deimtee on Saturday July 11 2020, @09:32AM (1 child)
I always thought it was having a go at over-optimistic estimators. 80% over original time and budget seems fairly usual.
If you cough while drinking cheap red wine it really cleans out your sinuses.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by Immerman on Saturday July 11 2020, @01:20PM
Not specifically, it doesn't even have anything to do with whether your estimate was accurate. It's more of an observational commentary about a frequently occurring exponential-like* distribution pattern.
It's not totally unlike commenting on a bell curve: a whole lot of random distributions tend to follow a Gaussian distribution, with you might say follows the "68/1" rule - 68% of the results fall within 1 standard deviation of the mean.
If instead it follows an exponential-like distribution, something like the 80/20 or 90/10 rule applies (depending on just how dramatically the exponential curve climbs). It seems to crop up a lot when you have self-amplifying effects at work - e.g. the richer you are, the easier it is to acquire an additional $1000, and so wealth distribution follows such a curve.
For programming - the larger the code base, the more work is generally required to fix a bug or add a feature, so that adding the last 10% of features may take much longer than adding the first 90%. Ideally you'd keep that in mind when making an estimate, recognize that our brains are really terrible at forecasting exponential growth, and multiply your initial estimate by 5x to 10x to compensate for that grueling last mile of progress. (Or as sometimes expressed - take your first estimate, multiply by two, then switch to the next larger unit of time. Three weeks => six months.)
*I say exponential-like because an "exponential distribution" refers to a very specific distribution curve, which I'm not sure it's actually relevant.
(Score: 2) by RS3 on Friday July 10 2020, @04:22PM (1 child)
I don't know if you've ever listened to "Car Talk" but Ray used to refer to the "third half of our show".
(Score: 2) by DannyB on Friday July 10 2020, @04:26PM
I didn't listen, but my wife did, long ago. So I heard some of it.
To transfer files: right-click on file, pick Copy. Unplug mouse, plug mouse into other computer. Right-click, paste.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday July 12 2020, @06:46PM
That's why the developers need to give 110% otherwise it won't get finished [del]on time[/del] late.