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posted by
martyb
on Friday July 10 2020, @07:39AM
from the blizzards-and-downpours-and-lightning-oh-my! dept.
from the blizzards-and-downpours-and-lightning-oh-my! dept.
Tesla 'very close' to full self-driving, Musk says:
Tesla will be able to make its vehicles completely autonomous by the end of this year, founder Elon Musk has said.
It was already "very close" to achieving the basic requirements of this "level-five" autonomy, which requires no driver input, he said.
Tesla's current, level-two Autopilot requires the driver to remain alert and ready to act, with hands on the wheel.
But a future software update could activate level-five autonomy in the cars - with no new hardware, he said.
Regulatory hurdles could block implementation even if the remaining technical hurdles are overcome.
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Elon Musk Says Full Self-Driving Tesla Tech "Very Close"
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TAPPING? You POLITICIANS! Don't you realize that the END of the "Wash
Cycle" is a TREASURED MOMENT for most people?!
(Score: 2) by deimtee on Saturday July 11 2020, @09:32AM (1 child)
I always thought it was having a go at over-optimistic estimators. 80% over original time and budget seems fairly usual.
If you cough while drinking cheap red wine it really cleans out your sinuses.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by Immerman on Saturday July 11 2020, @01:20PM
Not specifically, it doesn't even have anything to do with whether your estimate was accurate. It's more of an observational commentary about a frequently occurring exponential-like* distribution pattern.
It's not totally unlike commenting on a bell curve: a whole lot of random distributions tend to follow a Gaussian distribution, with you might say follows the "68/1" rule - 68% of the results fall within 1 standard deviation of the mean.
If instead it follows an exponential-like distribution, something like the 80/20 or 90/10 rule applies (depending on just how dramatically the exponential curve climbs). It seems to crop up a lot when you have self-amplifying effects at work - e.g. the richer you are, the easier it is to acquire an additional $1000, and so wealth distribution follows such a curve.
For programming - the larger the code base, the more work is generally required to fix a bug or add a feature, so that adding the last 10% of features may take much longer than adding the first 90%. Ideally you'd keep that in mind when making an estimate, recognize that our brains are really terrible at forecasting exponential growth, and multiply your initial estimate by 5x to 10x to compensate for that grueling last mile of progress. (Or as sometimes expressed - take your first estimate, multiply by two, then switch to the next larger unit of time. Three weeks => six months.)
*I say exponential-like because an "exponential distribution" refers to a very specific distribution curve, which I'm not sure it's actually relevant.