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Drop in Global Travel May Have Hurt Weather Forecasts:
In normal times, hundreds of thousands of planes and ships crisscross the planet daily, ferrying passengers or transporting cargo.
Many of these vessels are equipped with sensitive instruments that can collect a variety of scientific information about their surroundings—everything from air or ocean temperatures to wind speeds and humidity. Scientists often use the data to feed the models they use for weather forecasts and climate projections.
But the slowdown in global travel has triggered concern among researchers, who are worried their forecasts may be suffering.
One new study, published last week in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, suggests the decline in global air travel has taken a toll.
[...] The findings suggest that forecasts across much of the world became less accurate after the pandemic struck.
[...] It's not just aircraft data that's taken a hit.
A recent survey from the Global Ocean Observing System, a United Nations ocean monitoring initiative, suggests that a number of ocean-observing programs have suffered during the pandemic.
Data from the Ship of Opportunity Programme—an initiative that collects ocean measurements from commercial and other nonscientific vessels around the world—has decreased by about 90%, the report suggests. Meteorological data from a similar program, known as the Automated Shipboard Aerological Programme, has declined by 10%-15%.
The decline in ship-based observations isn't catastrophic on its own. Scientists collect a great deal of ocean data from networks of buoys they've set up across the seas, rigged with instruments that continuously send information back to land.
But even these autonomous systems require updates and maintenance. And with fewer ships crossing the ocean, they may not be getting the attention they need.
The Argo network—one of the world's largest and most important systems of autonomous ocean sensors—recently reported a 10% reduction in data, the Global Ocean Observing System report notes. It's not clear yet how much pandemic-related disruptions are to blame. But it's an issue to watch, the report suggests.
Journal Reference:
Ying Chen. COVID‐19 Pandemic Imperils Weather Forecast, Geophysical Research Letters (DOI: 10.1029/2020GL088613)
(Score: 2) by looorg on Wednesday July 22 2020, @03:10PM (1 child)
Nobody disputes any of that I think. It's not a matter of it not needing data anymore. But a lot of data input comes from unmanned sensors, a lot of them are on land. What the commercial traffic gives is basically input from areas where there is no land like over the oceans etc, where there is only the traffic that passes, buoys and possibly satellite data. So it's not like they are data starved. Predictions might become somewhat more iffy in the long term. But normally a model also needs more input in the creation but the hope is that it will need less data once it's up and running. A loss of 10-15% data shouldn't really crash the models or computations.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 22 2020, @10:25PM
Commercial ocean traffic data collection is mostly confined to shipping lanes.