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from the is-crime-data-report-trustworthy? dept.
I imagine most people here already know the stats, it's nothing new, but I found it interesting to review.
Many Americans Are Convinced Crime Is Rising In The U.S. They're Wrong:
"People estimated their risks for a whole host of bad-news life events — robbery, burglary, job loss and losing their health insurance. But the survey didn't just ask respondents to rate their chances: It also asked whether those things had actually happened to them in the last year.
And that combination of questions revealed something important about American fear: We are terrible at estimating our risk of crime — much worse than we are at guessing the danger of other bad things. Across that decade, respondents put their chance of being robbed in the coming year at about 15 percent. Looking back, the actual rate of robbery was 1.2 percent. In contrast, when asked to rate their risk of upcoming job loss, people guessed it was about 14.5 percent — much closer to the actual job loss rate of 12.9 percent."
[...] "In 2019, according to a survey conducted by Gallup, about 64 percent of Americans believed that there was more crime in the U.S. than there was a year ago. It's a belief we've consistently held for decades now, but as you can see in the chart below, we've been, just as consistently, very wrong."
Like I said, more of the same, but might be worth a discussion.
(Score: 2, Insightful) by RedGreen on Saturday August 08 2020, @11:59AM (36 children)
you are bombarded with false information by useless lying sacks of shit spreading fear for their goal of obtaining and keeping power on a daily basis. It is everywhere you look add into it the total bias against any kind of rational scientific look at a problem by them "liberals and socialists" trying to distort the facts by using the scientific methods to try and do some good for society. In short Americans are selfish morons who deserve just about everything they get for being such gullible fools. I mean really that asshole Trump still has close to 40% approval rating, what does he have to do, get a million or more killed with his incompetence before them idiots will wake up.
"I modded down, down, down, and the flames went higher." -- Sven Olsen
(Score: 5, Interesting) by JoeMerchant on Saturday August 08 2020, @12:58PM (11 children)
Fear of crime is used for political motivation all the time, especially in HOAs.
I moved from Miami to a smaller town, the HOA (of 100 homes spread out over 3 miles of internal roads) was stirring the "crime is rising" pot about the neighborhood. I brought up: "we own our roads, we could put in an access control gate" - statistically, in Miami and similar cities, access controlled neighborhoods experience a dramatic drop in crime when the gates are installed.
Turns out, when pressed for "what are our actual crime stats" all the HOA president could come up with was two instances of kids stealing stuff from open garages - over the past 5 years. Now, 2 years later, a random home invasion assault happened in a nearby neighborhood - put an elderly couple in the hospital. If their neighborhood had had an access control gate, that crime probably would have happened somewhere else instead. But, at what cost? That was a one-time event in the 50 year history of the suburbs out there - to access control all the neighborhoods for that whole period would have increased property taxes by 10-20% for the entire time.
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @01:28PM
The White House has access control and crimes are committed there all the time.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Phoenix666 on Saturday August 08 2020, @01:35PM (9 children)
I agree with you: at what cost? We need to measure the net cost and benefit of our decisions. We measure the net cost and benefit of that kind of decision, and choose accordingly. We measure the net cost and benefit of flying in airplanes, and despite the risk of dying a flaming death, fly anyway. We measure the net cost and benefit of driving, running the risk of dying a horrible death or suffering the lifelong disability that happens to tens of thousands of people every year, but drive anyway.
Somehow, though, when it comes to nuking our global economy, throwing several hundred millions of people who just climbed out of poverty back into want, and causing a bevy of attendant ills, we just do it because of the fear, the FEAR!
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @02:24PM
Not fear for me.
The infrastructure of office/cube that enforces boss/worker division is absent in my house. The Leadership (at my workplace) has shown itself to be a Fwd Fwd Fwd machine, 16 layers deep, who's main role is to create new Leadership layers that elevate non-productive employees and provide additional Fwd'ing prowess to the Leadership higher up.
(Score: 5, Informative) by JoeMerchant on Saturday August 08 2020, @03:12PM (7 children)
All comrades are equal, but some are more equal than others.
Hundreds of millions of people live in poverty today, as they did yesterday, years and centuries ago, and in the opinion of those not in poverty this situation is inevitable and will continue for years and centuries into the future. A few more or less is just irrelevant, if you're not the one trying to sleep in a home infested with pests and disease, going to great lengths for water to drink for the day, etc. Clue: the people who make the decisions aren't the ones that brush away insects from their faces at night and spend hours just attending to basic necessities of life every day.
The people who make the decisions see chaos (like the COVID response) as opportunity, not to eradicate poverty, but to become richer and more powerful. If a few hundred million people slip deeper into poverty, that boosts the relative power of those who are not in poverty - it's a net win, for the decision makers.
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Phoenix666 on Saturday August 08 2020, @06:06PM (6 children)
I agree with everything you wrote.
The rest of us who are not decision makers really must stop taking our cues from them, exactly because they are manipulating public opinion for their own benefit. It does not serve any of us to submit to their selective outrage porn, which pits us against each other. Rather, we ought to be phlegmatic in general. If we can stop savaging each other like good little puppets on strings we can progress; if not, we'll wind up coming to blows whether we want to or not, because the larger currents of social unrest will sweep us all away.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @06:22PM (4 children)
You'rea moron promoting death by touting the rebellious ideology of the US over proper medical advice.
Go fuck yourself shill and/or traitor.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @06:40PM (1 child)
Hey! You can't talk to Phoenix666 like that! Even if it is true!
(Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Sunday August 09 2020, @01:01PM
You both walked right into my trap and proved me right. Cheers.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Phoenix666 on Sunday August 09 2020, @01:00PM (1 child)
Thank you for helping me make my case.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 09 2020, @08:06PM
(He thinks he's winning! Isn't that cute!)
In the Words of Gordon Lightfoot (he's Canadian, you know):
♫Sometimes, I think it's a shame, that I get feeling better when I'm feeling no pain.♫
And
♫Sometimes, I think it's a sin, when I feel like I'm winning but I'm losing again.♫
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @07:42PM
Words of wisdom from one of the puppets.
(Score: 2) by driverless on Saturday August 08 2020, @01:14PM (2 children)
B-b-b-b-but if crime isn't constantly getting worse, how can we be persuaded to vote for politicians who promise to get tough on crime?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @02:27PM
Send in the Feds, he's out of control. Stop resisting. Sir, why are you resisting? *taze* Calm down, Sir. *takes him away*
(Score: 2) by crafoo on Sunday August 09 2020, @02:33PM
You know who has low crime? Saudi Arabia. Singapore. Two things both of these countries have in common: extremely economically disparity, and, extremely tough on crime.
(Score: 1, Flamebait) by stack on Saturday August 08 2020, @01:49PM (5 children)
But most of the false information is coming from the media themselves in their "Orange Man Bad" stance. They will lie just to make Trump look bad. They twist numbers and statistics daily to say what they want them to say. It makes scientists look incompetent when the news media companies bring out unqualified morons to say "SCIENCE!" when it isn't actual science. It's why we don't see proper virologists on the news giving us information, rather we see TV quacks who say whatever the news bias of the day wants them to say. When a "published article" matches what they want, they advertise the heck out of it. When actual science says that article is wrong and retracts the article, it's rare they even mention it but they certainly don't apologize for their mistake. The news companies are worse then the conspiracy theorists on social media!
The news companies WANT you to be afraid, because you are more likely to keep tuning in. Then they can sell more eye-balls to their advertising group. It's a common ploy to screw with poll numbers just to lift one side "polling" higher than the other to force more spending with them. They are absolutely loving the fear that they can spread with 2020 and they don't care how many they kill because no one will ever hold them responsible for it. They don't care how many people they can be directly linked to deaths because of inaccurate reporting just so long as the bad orange man isn't president anymore.
As for the perception of crime, I understand that for most people crime hasn't actually gone up. But where I live, there's a lot more people (of all colors and races) that respect the police so its no surprise that these leftist morons taking advantage of real societal issues just so they can loot everything hasn't had an impact here. That's not true elsewhere. And if you are watching social media and the news for information, then all you might see is that over a hundred children killed in Philly this year alone from violent crimes, or that there are more shootings in a month in Portland than in decades combined, or that New York shootings and homicides are surging. And that's not even mentioning how bad it is in Chicago. Links for all that below. But as someone who has friends who live in downtown Chicago and New York, all of them are saying that it's a heluva lot worse then what is on the news. They have all been victim of or direct witness of assaults during these protests. One friend in New York, the protest attempted to light his apartment building on fire after looting the stores on the ground level. All the news said was that the store had some damage in the protest that night because it didn't fit their narrative. Had that fire not been put out, a lot of people could have died that night. No wonder why people are fleeing these cities!
So I agree, it's no shock people think crime is up everywhere when there is civil unrest in some places which gets wide coverage by a news media that wants people to be afraid of their specific narrative and doesn't give all the facts. But I don't think America is nearly in as bad of a position as those same people want us to be in.
https://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2020/08/06/100-children-have-been-shot-in-philadelphia-so-far-this-year-police-say/ [cbslocal.com]
https://www.oregonlive.com/crime/2020/07/portland-police-record-highest-number-of-death-investigations-in-single-month-in-more-than-three-decades.html [oregonlive.com]
https://abc7ny.com/brooklyn-deadly-shooting-16-year-old-killed-teen-fatally-shot-teenager-critically-injured/6336129/ [abc7ny.com]
Also, never been a Trump supporter. I hate how he's turned our country into a bad reality TV series of rabid-media all-consumed with him (even if it is fun to watch libtards like Maddow spiral into madness over him). I'd never vote for Biden because it is clear he is no longer competent to run the country. I disagree with so much of Jorgensen's stances but she's at least not crooked as hell from what I can tell.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @02:31PM (1 child)
> leftist morons taking advantage of real societal issues just so they can loot everything
Ah thanks for explaining the last. So it was all about the Adidas.
(Score: 2, Touché) by stack on Monday August 10 2020, @10:46PM
Or cheesecakes
https://heavy.com/news/2020/05/seattle-woman-steals-cheesecake-protests-video/ [heavy.com]
or Valentino
https://summit.news/2020/08/10/chicago-riots-woman-shouts-i-cant-breathe-as-she-loots-luxury-clothing-store/ [summit.news]
or just looting for the sake of looting.
https://disrn.com/news/looters-vandals-take-over-chicago-shopping-district-after-police-involved-shooting/ [disrn.com]
This news is now so common it is just about daily. They don't actually care about the social problems, they just want free stuff.
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Saturday August 08 2020, @03:34PM (2 children)
Exactly. As the article suggests, the media spends 24/7 broadcasting the worst, and ignores the best. Politicians take advantage of that.
The mainstream news is not to be trusted, it's just that simple.
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @05:11PM (1 child)
No news is to be trusted, period. There's no reason to qualify that with mainstream, tiny propaganda outfits are just as much propagandists as large propaganda outfits.
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Saturday August 08 2020, @07:12PM
That troll mod didn't come from me.
I'll point out that many of us have advocated reading your news from many news sources, around the world. Yes, they're all biased. Chinese news sources are going to hype Chinese policy, etc. But, if you're not reading any Chinese news, you're missing out on a lot of news.
The trick is to balance all of it. Some incident in say - ohhh - Beirut. The Russians have a slant, the Chinese have their point of view, Iran has their own ideas, and Israel offers their perspective. And, mainstream United States media mostly babbles meaninglessly while Trump suggests that terrists done it.
IMHO, Al Jazeera and Euro news sources nailed it early, and nailed it accurately: six years of negligence on the part of corrupt Beirut officials caused the blast. Add in a couple idiots at the port allowing welding operations to take place in proximity to flammables, which in turn were too damned close to the explosives. Big fucking boom, because no one could do their job properly.
(Score: 1) by hemocyanin on Saturday August 08 2020, @04:50PM (6 children)
And 1300 public health officials tell us that rioting doesn't impact COVID.
IF we are to be honest, we'd acknowledge that Democrats AND Republicans abuse science and that both take their ideology religiously rather than experimentally.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @04:59PM (3 children)
If we're honest, you're being disingenuous about being honest.
(Score: 1) by hemocyanin on Saturday August 08 2020, @07:13PM (2 children)
From the Democratic inverse of Rush: https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/05/health/health-care-open-letter-protests-coronavirus-trnd/index.html [cnn.com]
(Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Saturday August 08 2020, @10:08PM
You will not topple them from their pedestal.
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Phoenix666 on Sunday August 09 2020, @01:07PM
Jesus, that's cynical, isn't it? They give themselves a free pass on protesting by categorizing it as a public health matter, and therefore co-equal to coronavirus. They have turned the hypocrisy dial to 11.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by dry on Sunday August 09 2020, @05:31AM (1 child)
Had lots of protests here, cases stayed around 10-20 a day, up to a dozen hospitalizations at a time and a death a week. Mostly the protesters kept apart and were outside. Now we have kids partying and cases getting close to 50 a day as things deteriorate with the reopening.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 09 2020, @08:22AM
I'd also note that here in New York City, there have been protests every single day since the end of May.
And since then, cases, hospitalizations and deaths have continued to decline [nyc.gov].
(Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Saturday August 08 2020, @05:52PM (7 children)
that asshole Trump still has close to 40% approval rating
Which is a fascinating thing to study, but I wish we didn't have to live in the lab. Isolation protocols are very weak.
However, all this stuff was already very well documented 90 years ago by Freud, Jung, Reich, etc... All we can do is confirm their findings, but contrarily, most people choose to remain in denial
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Phoenix666 on Sunday August 09 2020, @01:14PM (6 children)
You're mystified because you're inhabiting a bubble projected by a different tribe. If you really wanted to understand, you'd approach it like an anthropologist and enter their perception bubble and live as one of them. You would have to check your own biases and assumptions at the door, so it can be a challenge. But you might discover that those people are neither stupid, deceived, or malign, and instead see things differently. It's a useful exercise if you care about living in a pluralistic democracy with multiple perspectives and creeds, but if you don't care about that keep on rowing us toward the crashing thunder of the falls--the current is taking you there anyways.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by crafoo on Sunday August 09 2020, @02:39PM (2 children)
"and instead see things differently"
Yes, I would say instead that they have different values. The authoritarian left values equality above freedom. The USA was built on freedom as a core value, over equality. Therefore, the left is engaged in their multi-generation plan to destroy the USA as we know it and replace it with a society that values equality over freedom. They could go live in Venezuela, a country much more aligned with their values. Instead they prefer the USA, because our society built prosperity, economic mobility, and scientific advancement.
Communism. Always 1 murder away from utopia.
(Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Sunday August 09 2020, @06:50PM
Therefore, the left is engaged in their multi-generation plan to destroy the USA as we know it and replace it with a society that values equality over freedom.
LOL! Good one!
You people are insane!
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Phoenix666 on Sunday August 09 2020, @10:29PM
That is absolutely correct if we're talking about Marxists. We all believe in equality, as in "equal justice under law" and "all men are created equal," but Marxists believe in equal outcomes regardless of effort, summed up in the famous, "from each according to his ability, to each according to his need." Those people have infiltrated a great many institutions and organizations and are now having some success in driving the narrative.
But there are large portions of the left who are not Marxists. They want public health care and a more sustainable economy, but they have no interest in sending people to gulags or collectivization. They call themselves liberals, and believe in the same freedoms that the rest of America does. I know you weren't talking about them, but wanted call it back up because it's easy to forget these days.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Sunday August 09 2020, @06:48PM (2 children)
Not "mystified" at all. Biology is remarkably simple. You are only projecting your own impulses
To say that white supremacy does not exist in the US is so totally absurd. And those stupid numbers! Absolutely meaningless. There is nothing to discuss with a fool that believes such a thing. It's hardly worth working up the fart.
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
(Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Sunday August 09 2020, @10:08PM (1 child)
I didn't say it didn't exist. I said it was minimal, and brought statistics from sources (ADL, Wikipedia) predisposed to inflate the numbers to back it up. You brought no numbers.
So, which is it? Do you believe numbers from those sources, or not? If you don't, that rather makes you anti-science, anti-facts, does it not? It seems that if you fly in the face of the evidence, then you are being foolish.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Sunday August 09 2020, @11:09PM
I said it was minimal
Yeah! For you it would be! DUH! Your numbers are still meaningless bullshit in the real world, especially obvious to those that aren't white.
You shouldn't read that stuff. It's fogging your brain, making you believe things that aren't true
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..