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posted by martyb on Saturday August 08 2020, @11:27AM   Printer-friendly
from the is-crime-data-report-trustworthy? dept.

I imagine most people here already know the stats, it's nothing new, but I found it interesting to review.

Many Americans Are Convinced Crime Is Rising In The U.S. They're Wrong:

"People estimated their risks for a whole host of bad-news life events — robbery, burglary, job loss and losing their health insurance. But the survey didn't just ask respondents to rate their chances: It also asked whether those things had actually happened to them in the last year.

And that combination of questions revealed something important about American fear: We are terrible at estimating our risk of crime — much worse than we are at guessing the danger of other bad things. Across that decade, respondents put their chance of being robbed in the coming year at about 15 percent. Looking back, the actual rate of robbery was 1.2 percent. In contrast, when asked to rate their risk of upcoming job loss, people guessed it was about 14.5 percent — much closer to the actual job loss rate of 12.9 percent."

[...] "In 2019, according to a survey conducted by Gallup, about 64 percent of Americans believed that there was more crime in the U.S. than there was a year ago. It's a belief we've consistently held for decades now, but as you can see in the chart below, we've been, just as consistently, very wrong."

Like I said, more of the same, but might be worth a discussion.


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  • (Score: 4, Interesting) by Rosco P. Coltrane on Saturday August 08 2020, @12:12PM (11 children)

    by Rosco P. Coltrane (4757) on Saturday August 08 2020, @12:12PM (#1033407)

    The powers-that-be and their media buddies generally tend to portray things as worse than they are, or worsening, for the purpose of proposing themselves to fix the situation. This is nothing new, and it's brilliantly explained in Chomsky's Manufacturing Consent [wikipedia.org]. Not saying they actively make things worse to suit their purpose, but you can be sure as hell no politician is ever gonna go out and say "Nah, you're overreacting, it's really not that bad".

    Also, there's the simple media magnifier effect: you only read about bad news in the newspapers. You never get to hear about major achievements that better people's lives, let alone minor achievements in people's day-to-day lives.

    The more news you consume, the worse things look. It's plain logic. But I'll tell you what: look around you, and you'll see a lot of good things that never get reported: the local public park finally getting rehabilitated, your grandma's cancer test results improving, your colleague getting a promotion, your bicycle finally working right after days trying to find that squeak... It's also things like that that define how society is doing, not just what's in the news.

    Starting Score:    1  point
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  • (Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @12:26PM

    by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @12:26PM (#1033410)

    The powers-that-be and their media buddies generally tend to portray things as worse than they are

    Unless it fits their plan. They made no mention of Portland's descent into chaos until Trump sent federal police.

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @02:32PM (6 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @02:32PM (#1033453)

    > Nah, you're overreacting, it's really not that bad

    I think you'll find that is in fact very common. Why the fuck do you just talk out of your ass?

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @03:36PM (5 children)

      by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @03:36PM (#1033469)

      Well, why do you just hang on his posterior, and let him talk through you?

      • (Score: 1, Troll) by Phoenix666 on Sunday August 09 2020, @01:16PM (4 children)

        by Phoenix666 (552) on Sunday August 09 2020, @01:16PM (#1033786) Journal

        Cheap shots are cheap, and require no insight or wit. The truly hilarious thing is trolls are too dull to realize that every time they troll, what they're really doing is flashing a giant neon sign about how low brow and torpid they themselves are.

        --
        Washington DC delenda est.
        • (Score: 1, Flamebait) by aristarchus on Sunday August 09 2020, @08:11PM (3 children)

          by aristarchus (2645) on Sunday August 09 2020, @08:11PM (#1033985) Journal

          every time they troll, what they're really doing is flashing a giant neon sign about how low brow and torpid they themselves are.

          A hit! A palpable hit! You have sore wounded me, Phoenix666! I am hurt very badly by your insinuation. But perhaps the weapon you wield has more than one edge?

          • (Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Monday August 10 2020, @11:12AM (2 children)

            by Phoenix666 (552) on Monday August 10 2020, @11:12AM (#1034280) Journal

            I don't think of you as a troll, but does this mean you are self-identifying as one?

            --
            Washington DC delenda est.
            • (Score: 2) by aristarchus on Tuesday August 11 2020, @12:34AM (1 child)

              by aristarchus (2645) on Tuesday August 11 2020, @12:34AM (#1034639) Journal

              道可道,非常道

              The Troll that can be trolled is not really a troll.

              That trolling is a shameful thing, and that no one of sense would accept to be called ‘troll’, all are agreed; but what trolling is, and how many its species are, and whether there is an excellence of the troll, is unclear.

              Pseudo-Aristotle, On Trolling [cambridge.org].

              There was an aristarchus submission [soylentnews.org] on this?

              • (Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Tuesday August 11 2020, @01:30PM

                by Phoenix666 (552) on Tuesday August 11 2020, @01:30PM (#1034890) Journal

                道可道,非常道

                老子死了.

                Being a foil, a critic, or even a wag is fine, but being a troll (intentionally) is a waste of time. Dishing out troll mods instead of responding sucks more. Discourse is the way, not silencing.

                --
                Washington DC delenda est.
  • (Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Saturday August 08 2020, @05:57PM

    by fustakrakich (6150) on Saturday August 08 2020, @05:57PM (#1033523) Journal

    you can be sure as hell no politician is ever gonna go out and say "Nah, you're overreacting, it's really not that bad".

    The prez is doing exactly that. It's all a "democrat hoax"

    --
    La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @07:33PM

    by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @07:33PM (#1033593)

    The media plays up the bad stuff because that's what sells. Capitalism in action. Local improvements are usually in the local section of the local paper, not the main section and certainly not shared and hyped across the Internet or national TV.

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 09 2020, @04:07PM

    by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 09 2020, @04:07PM (#1033862)

    Not saying they actively make things worse to suit their purpose, but you can be sure as hell no politician is ever gonna go out and say "Nah, you're overreacting, it's really not that bad".

    It depends on what they are trying to achieve.

    Witness the reaction US Government's to school shootings, or police violence, or Flint's water, or Covid.

    It's very possible that things really aren't that bad for those subjects (often I think media does overblow topics sometimes)... but the specific point you say is not true.