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from the is-crime-data-report-trustworthy? dept.
I imagine most people here already know the stats, it's nothing new, but I found it interesting to review.
Many Americans Are Convinced Crime Is Rising In The U.S. They're Wrong:
"People estimated their risks for a whole host of bad-news life events — robbery, burglary, job loss and losing their health insurance. But the survey didn't just ask respondents to rate their chances: It also asked whether those things had actually happened to them in the last year.
And that combination of questions revealed something important about American fear: We are terrible at estimating our risk of crime — much worse than we are at guessing the danger of other bad things. Across that decade, respondents put their chance of being robbed in the coming year at about 15 percent. Looking back, the actual rate of robbery was 1.2 percent. In contrast, when asked to rate their risk of upcoming job loss, people guessed it was about 14.5 percent — much closer to the actual job loss rate of 12.9 percent."
[...] "In 2019, according to a survey conducted by Gallup, about 64 percent of Americans believed that there was more crime in the U.S. than there was a year ago. It's a belief we've consistently held for decades now, but as you can see in the chart below, we've been, just as consistently, very wrong."
Like I said, more of the same, but might be worth a discussion.
(Score: 5, Interesting) by JoeMerchant on Saturday August 08 2020, @12:58PM (11 children)
Fear of crime is used for political motivation all the time, especially in HOAs.
I moved from Miami to a smaller town, the HOA (of 100 homes spread out over 3 miles of internal roads) was stirring the "crime is rising" pot about the neighborhood. I brought up: "we own our roads, we could put in an access control gate" - statistically, in Miami and similar cities, access controlled neighborhoods experience a dramatic drop in crime when the gates are installed.
Turns out, when pressed for "what are our actual crime stats" all the HOA president could come up with was two instances of kids stealing stuff from open garages - over the past 5 years. Now, 2 years later, a random home invasion assault happened in a nearby neighborhood - put an elderly couple in the hospital. If their neighborhood had had an access control gate, that crime probably would have happened somewhere else instead. But, at what cost? That was a one-time event in the 50 year history of the suburbs out there - to access control all the neighborhoods for that whole period would have increased property taxes by 10-20% for the entire time.
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @01:28PM
The White House has access control and crimes are committed there all the time.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Phoenix666 on Saturday August 08 2020, @01:35PM (9 children)
I agree with you: at what cost? We need to measure the net cost and benefit of our decisions. We measure the net cost and benefit of that kind of decision, and choose accordingly. We measure the net cost and benefit of flying in airplanes, and despite the risk of dying a flaming death, fly anyway. We measure the net cost and benefit of driving, running the risk of dying a horrible death or suffering the lifelong disability that happens to tens of thousands of people every year, but drive anyway.
Somehow, though, when it comes to nuking our global economy, throwing several hundred millions of people who just climbed out of poverty back into want, and causing a bevy of attendant ills, we just do it because of the fear, the FEAR!
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @02:24PM
Not fear for me.
The infrastructure of office/cube that enforces boss/worker division is absent in my house. The Leadership (at my workplace) has shown itself to be a Fwd Fwd Fwd machine, 16 layers deep, who's main role is to create new Leadership layers that elevate non-productive employees and provide additional Fwd'ing prowess to the Leadership higher up.
(Score: 5, Informative) by JoeMerchant on Saturday August 08 2020, @03:12PM (7 children)
All comrades are equal, but some are more equal than others.
Hundreds of millions of people live in poverty today, as they did yesterday, years and centuries ago, and in the opinion of those not in poverty this situation is inevitable and will continue for years and centuries into the future. A few more or less is just irrelevant, if you're not the one trying to sleep in a home infested with pests and disease, going to great lengths for water to drink for the day, etc. Clue: the people who make the decisions aren't the ones that brush away insects from their faces at night and spend hours just attending to basic necessities of life every day.
The people who make the decisions see chaos (like the COVID response) as opportunity, not to eradicate poverty, but to become richer and more powerful. If a few hundred million people slip deeper into poverty, that boosts the relative power of those who are not in poverty - it's a net win, for the decision makers.
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Phoenix666 on Saturday August 08 2020, @06:06PM (6 children)
I agree with everything you wrote.
The rest of us who are not decision makers really must stop taking our cues from them, exactly because they are manipulating public opinion for their own benefit. It does not serve any of us to submit to their selective outrage porn, which pits us against each other. Rather, we ought to be phlegmatic in general. If we can stop savaging each other like good little puppets on strings we can progress; if not, we'll wind up coming to blows whether we want to or not, because the larger currents of social unrest will sweep us all away.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @06:22PM (4 children)
You'rea moron promoting death by touting the rebellious ideology of the US over proper medical advice.
Go fuck yourself shill and/or traitor.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @06:40PM (1 child)
Hey! You can't talk to Phoenix666 like that! Even if it is true!
(Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Sunday August 09 2020, @01:01PM
You both walked right into my trap and proved me right. Cheers.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Phoenix666 on Sunday August 09 2020, @01:00PM (1 child)
Thank you for helping me make my case.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 09 2020, @08:06PM
(He thinks he's winning! Isn't that cute!)
In the Words of Gordon Lightfoot (he's Canadian, you know):
♫Sometimes, I think it's a shame, that I get feeling better when I'm feeling no pain.♫
And
♫Sometimes, I think it's a sin, when I feel like I'm winning but I'm losing again.♫
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @07:42PM
Words of wisdom from one of the puppets.