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from the is-crime-data-report-trustworthy? dept.
I imagine most people here already know the stats, it's nothing new, but I found it interesting to review.
Many Americans Are Convinced Crime Is Rising In The U.S. They're Wrong:
"People estimated their risks for a whole host of bad-news life events — robbery, burglary, job loss and losing their health insurance. But the survey didn't just ask respondents to rate their chances: It also asked whether those things had actually happened to them in the last year.
And that combination of questions revealed something important about American fear: We are terrible at estimating our risk of crime — much worse than we are at guessing the danger of other bad things. Across that decade, respondents put their chance of being robbed in the coming year at about 15 percent. Looking back, the actual rate of robbery was 1.2 percent. In contrast, when asked to rate their risk of upcoming job loss, people guessed it was about 14.5 percent — much closer to the actual job loss rate of 12.9 percent."
[...] "In 2019, according to a survey conducted by Gallup, about 64 percent of Americans believed that there was more crime in the U.S. than there was a year ago. It's a belief we've consistently held for decades now, but as you can see in the chart below, we've been, just as consistently, very wrong."
Like I said, more of the same, but might be worth a discussion.
(Score: 2, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @01:09PM (35 children)
And for nearly every year over the previous 30 years or so.
Curious to see what happens in 2020 and 2021, though. Usually people think crime is rising because the media does everything possible to make it look like crime is rising, even though it isn't. Make policing impossible, and crime will actually start to rise.
(Score: 2, Insightful) by Runaway1956 on Saturday August 08 2020, @03:42PM (23 children)
No. Allow citizens to defend themselves, their property, and their loved ones. If 1/2 of all homes in the neighborhood were guaranteed to have an armed citizen inside, how many burglars would attempt to break into those homes? What if it were 3/4 of all homes? How about all homes?
The highest crime rates are in those cities where the politicians fuck with second amendment rights the most.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @05:01PM (4 children)
Yeah well, when your gun crimes stats go off the charts it's prooooobably not because of gun restrictions.
(Score: 4, Interesting) by Runaway1956 on Saturday August 08 2020, @06:41PM
Citations needed for "gun crimes go off the charts".
1. The term "gun crime" is worthless, useless, misleading propaganda. The issue is CRIME, not "gun crime". Guns don't commit crimes. Criminals are happy to use a gun to commit a crime, but guns don't commit crimes.
2. Just like crime is a far lesser problem than most Americans believe it to be, so-called "gun crimes" are a far lesser problem than Americans perceive them to be.
For years, the CDC, SPLC, and others have hyped up "gun crime", to make you quiver in fear of guns. What does the FBI have to say on the subject?
https://www.facebook.com/TippingPointonOAN/videos/fbi-gun-violence-stats/974775459341498/ [facebook.com]
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2018/crime-in-the-u.s.-2018/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-8.xls [fbi.gov]
If the gun lobby people were really interested in decreasing the number of people killed with firearms, they would simply STOP WORRYING about "assualt rifles" and concentrate on handguns. For every person killed with a rifle (of any sort) about 30 people are killed with a handgun.
(Score: 1) by hemocyanin on Saturday August 08 2020, @07:20PM (1 child)
Crimes are acts which are against the law. Lawful self-defense is not a crime and would have upward effect on crime stats.
(Score: 1) by hemocyanin on Saturday August 08 2020, @07:22PM
"WOULD NOT"
dammit
(Score: 2) by Bot on Saturday August 08 2020, @09:37PM
Let's find a middle ground. Like, permitting guns and banning SSRIs https://thoughtcatalog.com/jeremy-london/2019/09/37-mass-shooters-who-were-on-antidepressants/ [thoughtcatalog.com]
Account abandoned.
(Score: 2) by barbara hudson on Saturday August 08 2020, @05:27PM (12 children)
SoylentNews is social media. Says so right in the slogan. Soylentnews is people, not tech.
(Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @06:04PM (11 children)
many thieves won't take guns b/c it's a higher risk in many places. i.e. sometimes there's a higher charge for stealing the gun, then there's a higher charge for being in possession and selling, etc. not so much trouble to just steal cash and jewelry. easier to pocket too.
(Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @06:22PM (4 children)
Not much money in most guns either - street value is retail price at best, usually way less.
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Saturday August 08 2020, @06:45PM (3 children)
Street value is usually about 1/10 the value of the weapon. Pawn shop value is only about 1/3 to 1/2 the value of the weapon, street value even lower. The exception is when an individual is looking for a murder weapon, or a gang is arming up for a gang war, then all bets are off. You might get $500 for a worthless cheap automatic pistol that sells for $200 anywhere in America.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @08:06PM (2 children)
Intrigues me how you know so much about criminal firearms sales. Hmm.
(Score: 2) by Bot on Saturday August 08 2020, @09:39PM (1 child)
Yeah he talks about guns almost as much as a leftist. That's suspect.
Account abandoned.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 10 2020, @03:59AM
Everyone is suspect around there. Just about the only person I believe here anymore is when NCommander says something neat about computing.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @09:14PM
true, most professional/experienced criminals go after jewelry. They won't go after big things like television, they don't try to steal cars (they will try to steal something small and expensive in the car). They want a quick getaway.
A gun is a mixed bag. You steal a piece of jewelry and someone sees you with it later you can say it belongs to you and it's harder to prove otherwise. Guns need to be registered, get reported stolen, all this makes them harder to resell so you have to discount their sale price, etc...
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 09 2020, @08:30AM (4 children)
How many thieves have told you this?
Did you read a study that looked at whether thieves decline to steal guns or not?
Or are you just talking out of your ass?
I vote for the latter.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday August 09 2020, @01:11PM (3 children)
Ignoring that enough thieves may have told him so, we still have that the underlying argument is true. There are greatly penalties for stealing, selling, and carrying stolen weapons than there is for jewelry. And I strongly bet that police are going to get more worked up over $10,000 in stolen firearms on the street than in $10,000 in stolen jewelry or electronics, because you can't easily kill a police officer with a stolen wrist bracelet or TV.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 09 2020, @04:06PM (2 children)
And just as studies have shown that the death penalty (how much harsher can you get) is not a deterrent to committing murder, I'm not buying the story that harsher penalties for stealing guns (does that even exist?) deters thieves from stealing guns when they are available to steal.
GP needs provide some evidence* to be convincing. *Claiming* something is true isn't evidence.*
*Kind of like this for my claim:
https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/stories/states-with-no-death-penalty-share-lower-homicide-rates [deathpenaltyinfo.org]
https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/facts-and-research/murder-rates/murder-rate-of-death-penalty-states-compared-to-non-death-penalty-states [deathpenaltyinfo.org]
https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/news/study-international-data-shows-declining-murder-rates-after-abolition-of-death-penalty [deathpenaltyinfo.org]
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 09 2020, @08:17PM
murder and what to steal are vastly different situations. people aren't usually in the throws of passion when they decide to steal a handbag, despite the anitpiracy videos claiming otherwise. deterrents work for less important things. i even doubt the finding of the death penalty not being a deterrent, as i think i would kill certain people if it wasn't for the whole manhunt, prison and death penalty thing.
(Score: 2, Informative) by khallow on Monday August 10 2020, @03:56AM
And of course, there is a federal agency which specializes in tracking gun-related theft, smuggling, etc, the ATF (Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives) and makes a lot of firearm-related crimes, federal crimes [wklaw.com].
Stealing an expensive TV isn't going to trigger federal charges (except in relatively unusual circumstances like crossing state lines).
So then we're left with your assertion:
Compared to what? The kind of people who kill by impulse (which generally is the class of people who aren't deterred by murder, right?) generally don't face the death penalty.
And murder isn't comparable to theft. A lot more people steal stuff and steal a lot more often than people who murder. Sure, there's a few who aren't evaluating the risks of stealing stuff. But those who make a career of it (and what murderers do you know who make a career out of murder?) have a pretty good understanding of the risks. In particular, they often look for the easy marks. For example, looking for unlocked houses or vehicles, looking for valuables in plain view, etc. Theft of guns can be feasible, but the same thieves who are careful about taking extra chances probably are familiar with the risks of involving federal law enforcement in their activities (and the enhanced difficulty of selling stolen firearms).
Robbing dozens of houses of jewelry or electronics is going to put you on the radar of the local police or perhaps state level police. Robbing dozens of houses of guns is going to put you on the radar for the ATF.
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @06:21PM (4 children)
The crimes that are increasing are hillbillies with guns assaulting people, white jerk lawyers and spouses brandishing guns, and white supremacists attacking Americans exercising their First Amendment Rights. All the increase is crime is due to conservative right-wing nut-jobs, "standing their ground" because they are too scared to respond like a real human being, and that they have a gun. Oh, and they are refusing to wear a mask. Mad dogs, Crazy Karens, Runaway1956.
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Saturday August 08 2020, @07:23PM (3 children)
It isn't a crime to beat down Anonymous Cowards caught in the act of insulting and assaulting our intelligence.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @07:44PM (1 child)
So fascism. I like all these admissions you keep making. Hope you can keep it in your pants so we don't have to go all WWII on y'all.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @08:11PM
QOTD
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @09:21PM
What about a certain Runaway? Is it a crime to beat him down while "caught in the act of insulting and assaulting our intelligence"? Just asking.
(Score: 1, Troll) by hemocyanin on Saturday August 08 2020, @04:57PM (10 children)
Crime is actually rising in some places. Portland politicians forced the police to disband the Gun Violence Reduction Team on July 1st.
https://www.oregonlive.com/crime/2020/07/portland-police-record-highest-number-of-death-investigations-in-single-month-in-more-than-three-decades.html [oregonlive.com]
(Score: 2, Informative) by hemocyanin on Saturday August 08 2020, @06:22PM (9 children)
In the thread where we are talking about science and facts and ideology, a neutral fact is modded as troll. Democrats are as religious about their science as Republicans.
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @06:44PM (3 children)
Hemo, we know you are scared, but that does not give you the right to lie. This is why you get modded troll. You either need to grow some ovaries, or start telling the truth.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @06:46PM
Why grow an ovary, when we've got you around?
(Score: 2, Insightful) by hemocyanin on Saturday August 08 2020, @07:24PM (1 child)
So it's an ad hominem mod, not one based in substance. And you wonder why liberals look askance at the authoritarian left?
(Score: -1, Flamebait) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @08:08PM
Remember, hemo, ad hominem is saying you are wrong because you are a frightened idiot. What we are saying here is that you are a frightened idiot because you are wrong. Not the same thing at all. So, just stop it, you coward!
(Score: 3, Informative) by Runaway1956 on Saturday August 08 2020, @08:15PM (4 children)
I didn't mod you down - but you make mention of a "neutral fact". Sorry, Bubba, but any statement about "gun violence" is a partisan opinion. The fact is, guns don't do violence, they don't commit crimes, they don't even cause crimes. You would do as well to blame the wind on the the trees in your yard. "Every time the trees start swaying, it gets windy around here!"
(Score: -1, Flamebait) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @08:33PM (3 children)
NRA talking-points from the guy with a journal on them? Strange.
Guns facilitate violence, especially lethal violence. They make it easy, they have triggers for the easily triggered. And, America has a problem with gun fetishism. A gun, for a soldier, a cop, or a criminal, means they have power, and makes up for, um, shortcomings in other areas of masculinity. Most "self-defense" firearms end up being used on the owner their self, most often by their self. Guns make suicide quick and easy, and more likely to be fatal. Even the White House has admitted that limiting access to guns is preventative of veteran suicides. [npr.org] Not the mention the great success of gun-therapy in the case of the American Snipper dude. [nbcnews.com]
Moar Guns, for Freedumb!!
(Score: 3, Informative) by Runaway1956 on Saturday August 08 2020, @08:54PM (2 children)
Your hand facilitate crime. Should we cut them off?
Citation needed. Oh - you refer to suicide? So, it is your position that a person may not end their lives, when they see fit? That person must be "saved" so that corporate America can make another few thousand dollars off their miserable lives?
As for Kyle, he went out doing what he wanted to do in life.
Hey - I want you to understand something. If you are a hoplophobe - that is, if you are afraid of guns, there is no need for you to own a gun! Don't want one? Just don't get one! You'll be safe from guns. If there is no gun in your house, then it can't jump down from the mantle, or pick the lock on your gunsafe, and set out to cause murder and mayhem.
None of us Second Amendment advocates demands that you buy a gun. You are safe from guns, if you want to be safe from guns.
After all, I wouldn't expect someone who is afraid of snakes to keep snakes in the house. Or dogs. Or cats. It should be mentioned that you have more reason to fear cats, than you have to fear guns.
(Score: -1, Flamebait) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @09:29PM (1 child)
Well, not quite. Sort of. In a recent discussion (a few months ago, I think) the Buzztard called me damn stupid when I admitted that in my more than fifty years of life I had never owned a gun. While that is not exactly a "demand" to buy a gun, it comes pretty damn close.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @09:38PM
Sorry for double posting but I wanted to add that I'm beginning to see a rather worrying trend which comes pretty damn close to equating guns and God. [youtube.com] Are you sure you 2A types haven't gone over the edge worshiping your guns?