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from the is-crime-data-report-trustworthy? dept.
I imagine most people here already know the stats, it's nothing new, but I found it interesting to review.
Many Americans Are Convinced Crime Is Rising In The U.S. They're Wrong:
"People estimated their risks for a whole host of bad-news life events — robbery, burglary, job loss and losing their health insurance. But the survey didn't just ask respondents to rate their chances: It also asked whether those things had actually happened to them in the last year.
And that combination of questions revealed something important about American fear: We are terrible at estimating our risk of crime — much worse than we are at guessing the danger of other bad things. Across that decade, respondents put their chance of being robbed in the coming year at about 15 percent. Looking back, the actual rate of robbery was 1.2 percent. In contrast, when asked to rate their risk of upcoming job loss, people guessed it was about 14.5 percent — much closer to the actual job loss rate of 12.9 percent."
[...] "In 2019, according to a survey conducted by Gallup, about 64 percent of Americans believed that there was more crime in the U.S. than there was a year ago. It's a belief we've consistently held for decades now, but as you can see in the chart below, we've been, just as consistently, very wrong."
Like I said, more of the same, but might be worth a discussion.
(Score: 2) by barbara hudson on Saturday August 08 2020, @01:25PM (6 children)
In between those extremes you'll find a higher rate of property crimes such as theft and vandalism, because people are out and about more, there's simply more opportunities. Bicycle theft is a simple example - only a hard-core alcoholic will be balancing a 2-4 (case of 24 beer for non-canucks) on the handlebars of a bicycle during a raging snowstorm, and if he leaves his bike outside while shopping, nobody will steal it. But when the weather is nice, more people are out cycling, so more opportunities for bike theft, and the thief doesn't exactly stand out as the only one on a bike in the Middle East blizzard. Same with theft from cars - can't see too well inside cars to see if they have anything worth stealing inside when the windows are covered in frost and snow. But in summer, it's easy. Throw in many more daylight hours, of course people will be out more. This also leaves homes empty longer - making them targets for robbery.
Lockdown changed the natural seasonal cycle of human activity. Hardly any vehicular traffic, the only people out and about were walking their dogs or doing essential things like getting groceries or meds. So a drastic drop in home robbery because people were home, and it was much easier to spot someone who didn't live in the neighbourhood. They also couldn't blend into normal traffic when streets and sidewalks were bare.
Some shifted their targets to empty stores and businesses, but again, they stuck out like sore thumbs when the alarm would go off, and it was much harder to fence goods when places like pawn shops were closed.
More measures were put in place and heavily advertised to let victims of domestic violence get the hell out, because obviously being stuck with someone who you no longer get along with gives more opportunities for physical and mental abuse. People were more on the lookout for signs because of. The advertising campaigns offering advice and shelter, and safety when leaving. So I'd expect a rise in couples breaking up and probably a rise in divorces over the next year (for those who still practice marriage - it's kind of frowned upon nowadays as unnecessary for being a family or raising kids, and one benefit is breakups no longer involve divorce).
Of course, as lockdown is eased and more people are out and about, crime will go back up. Just because there will be more opportunities post-lockdown. But because of social distancing, people are more aware of a stranger following too closely, or loitering, so maybe there will be a permanent change. But that's probably too much to hope for.
SoylentNews is social media. Says so right in the slogan. Soylentnews is people, not tech.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @02:46PM (1 child)
Such meandering stream of consciousness bullshit.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @06:13PM
Man! You're not kidding!
That's obviously a very lonely person. And the meds probably don't hurt
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @03:55PM (3 children)
Could you prepare a list of all the cities in the world that experience temperatures of -30 (did you mean F or C?) routinely? Most Americans these days think that it's cold when standing water gets a skimming of ice on it. Canadians aren't a lot different - the major cities in Canada, that is, the major population centers, are only a few degrees further north than Detroit and Chicago.
(Score: 2) by barbara hudson on Saturday August 08 2020, @05:24PM
The Europeans who first came to North America were not prepared for how cold it gets even in the north-eastern US. The Fahrenheit scale originally stopped at zero degrees because they couldn't imagine things getting colder than that. Increased travel proved that idea wrong. Winters are getting shorter and warmer overall, and summers hotter and longer. It's why you can now grow oranges in Vancouver, for example. But more people are dying of heat than cold already, and that's going to get worse.
SoylentNews is social media. Says so right in the slogan. Soylentnews is people, not tech.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @06:27PM (1 child)
Could you prepare a list of all the cities in the world that experience temperatures of -30 (did you mean F or C?) routinely?
Love it, man! Drown 'em in paperwork! Are you a lawyer?
-30, F or C, (imagine Kelvin!) is damn cold! It's not routinely that cold south of Barrow, Alaska, but will get that cold in Springfield
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @10:00PM
-30 Kelvin doesn't exist.