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from the is-crime-data-report-trustworthy? dept.
I imagine most people here already know the stats, it's nothing new, but I found it interesting to review.
Many Americans Are Convinced Crime Is Rising In The U.S. They're Wrong:
"People estimated their risks for a whole host of bad-news life events — robbery, burglary, job loss and losing their health insurance. But the survey didn't just ask respondents to rate their chances: It also asked whether those things had actually happened to them in the last year.
And that combination of questions revealed something important about American fear: We are terrible at estimating our risk of crime — much worse than we are at guessing the danger of other bad things. Across that decade, respondents put their chance of being robbed in the coming year at about 15 percent. Looking back, the actual rate of robbery was 1.2 percent. In contrast, when asked to rate their risk of upcoming job loss, people guessed it was about 14.5 percent — much closer to the actual job loss rate of 12.9 percent."
[...] "In 2019, according to a survey conducted by Gallup, about 64 percent of Americans believed that there was more crime in the U.S. than there was a year ago. It's a belief we've consistently held for decades now, but as you can see in the chart below, we've been, just as consistently, very wrong."
Like I said, more of the same, but might be worth a discussion.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by Phoenix666 on Saturday August 08 2020, @01:41PM (17 children)
Michael Moore has moments of lucidity. He skewered the Bush administration in Fahrenheit 911. He was the only one on the side of the progressives who correctly understood Trump's victory in 2016. Even back in Roger and Me he hit the nail on the head.
These days his insight has become quite selective. Fine that he takes fear mongering with crime stats to task, but what about the fear mongering about white supremacy!!!, a force which is almost non-existent in modern America? How about the fear mongering about coronavirus? He's quite fine with those, it seems.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @02:39PM (4 children)
https://www.statista.com/chart/18892/number-of-hate-crimes-recorded-in-us-cities/ [statista.com]
It doesn't exist. I can't see it.
(Score: 2, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @04:52PM (2 children)
http://www.fakehatecrimes.org/ [fakehatecrimes.org]
(Score: -1, Flamebait) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @05:19PM (1 child)
Of course! It's the fake moon landings argument. Carry on.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @07:17PM
Is that you Jussie?
Or maybe just someone less famous but fabulously toxic? https://www.newsweek.com/racist-threats-attacks-that-rattled-california-university-campus-were-faked-police-say-1497533 [newsweek.com]
(Score: 3, Informative) by Phoenix666 on Sunday August 09 2020, @01:53PM
Have you read the report cited in the article you linked to? It plays pretty fast and loose with definitions in order to support their thesis that "Hate Crime is Rising!!!" Page 18, they categorize the 2017 truck attack in Manhattan as a "hate crime," when it was nothing of the kind. The attacker drove onto the West Side bike path and mowed people down indiscriminately; five of his victims were childhood friends from Argentina who were taking a once-in-a-lifetime dream vacation to NYC. It was terrorism, plain and simple, but the authors of your report just call it a hate crime.
Again, on page 21, the authors call the mass shooting in Las Vegas a hate crime. Is shooting up a country music festival really a hate crime?
On page 22 they cite the "Pepe the Frog" meme as PROOF that hate is multiplying online, but the joke's on them because Pepe the Frog is a meme designed to mock people who find white supremacists under every bush and behind every tree.
Their entire approach to categorizing "hate online" is preposterous, citing key word searches on Google:
Did you catch that coy little admission at the end, "though some of those queries may have non-bigoted motivations." Basically, if a pack of reporters, a number of anti-hate crime advocates, and a handful of curious citizens search for those terms then it's 100% proof that hate online is skyrocketing. Look at the chart below that quote, where they point to a spike in searches for the term "kike" with the caveat:
In other words, because most people don't know how or don't bother to enter é in the search field, these credulous oafs who are the authors have concluded that "kike," a smear used against Jews that has not been used since the 70's, has made a resurgence and think they excuse themselves with a fig leaf of a footnote.
On page 11, the authors confess: "Because not all of the thirty cities surveyed broke down their data, and there was divergence among those that did, CSHE compiled
various data sets. In 18 cities, we arranged the 2018 bias motive data individually by city, and of those there were fourteen with
more specific breakdowns. " In other words, they artfully aggregated and broke out incidents that were not so categorized by the original reporting agencies, or, in layman's terms, they made it up.
We can go on and on with this shoddy, willful piece of "scholarship." They cite ADL for stats on anti-Semitic incidents, completely omitting the fact that the ADL makes bank on perceptions of anti-Semitism so they have a financial interest in over-reporting such. They cite Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) stats on hate crimes, whose data has been previously debunked because they read every incident from police reports that said, "African-American male mugged" as a hate crime, because it happened to a black person, not because the mugger was motivated by racial bias.
We shouldn't let ourselves be spoonfed by garbage studies like these.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Saturday August 08 2020, @06:02PM (11 children)
what about the fear mongering about white supremacy!!!, a force which is almost non-existent in modern America?
HA! You're a funny guy! You working from home now that all the clubs are closed?
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Phoenix666 on Saturday August 08 2020, @09:27PM (10 children)
I don't know what reality you inhabit, but in this one the membership of the KKK is 3000 [adl.org]. The largest neo-Nazi group in the US has 400 [wikipedia.org] members. Even the panhandle of Idaho, a stronghold of Aryan Nations people in the 80's, has been largely rooted out.
The reality is white supremacists are now a bugbear used by the Democratic party and others to keep minorities in line and drive their agenda.
Meanwhile Antifa and BLM are rioting, committing arson, lobbing IEDs at federal officers, and seizing chunks of American cities to terrify businesses and residents. Does that constitute a threat to public order, or do they get a pass?
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Saturday August 08 2020, @09:48PM (9 children)
Ah, I see, you use statistics, not live the life. Well, it is true, from inside the plane, you can't see the tail is on fire. Happy landings!
Meanwhile Antifa and BLM are rioting, committing arson, lobbing IEDs at federal officers, and seizing chunks of American cities to terrify businesses and residents.
Yes, yes, of course they are...
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
(Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday August 09 2020, @01:05PM (3 children)
So statistics are yet another thing that frightens and confuses poor Caveman Fustakrakich? Who knew? I guess he heard you could lie with statistics.
I have to say that I love the Caveman Fusta channel. You never know what crazy bullshit he'll pull next! Last episode, he redefined [soylentnews.org] the sociopathy/psychopathy thing (alert the DSM!), diagnosing thousands of people with psychopathy, and told us something was self-evident (though I guess we'll just have to wait to see what was supposed to be self-evident). Plus a guest appearance by aristarchus. Good times!
(Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Sunday August 09 2020, @06:24PM (2 children)
No fear...
I would never expect you to live in another man's shoes either. Just the nature of your psychosis. Your posts only clarify your condition
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
(Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday August 09 2020, @10:59PM (1 child)
Hopefully, you will never use that sentence again, until you've lived in another man's shoes. /Sarc
Funny how you can't express coherent thought, but there's red-bellied psychoses nesting in my posts. Quite the bird watcher!
(Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Sunday August 09 2020, @11:12PM
Heh, you're quite a rare bird! Well, maybe not rare, but you sing an interesting tune
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
(Score: 4, Insightful) by Phoenix666 on Sunday August 09 2020, @01:57PM (4 children)
Sigh. So much for "believe the science" and "look at the facts," eh? Indeed, thank you for demonstrating how empty those slogans are.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 2) by crafoo on Sunday August 09 2020, @02:42PM
Words have no meaning to a true believer. They are just sounds, vocal ticks, magic spells they use to achieve the outcomes they desire.
(Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Sunday August 09 2020, @06:22PM (2 children)
There is no "science" in your stats. You're just talking racist trash. I fart in your general direction
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
(Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Sunday August 09 2020, @10:10PM (1 child)
You should write to Wikipedia and the Anti-Defamation League and tell them what racist trash they are, because they compiled those numbers. Go ahead. It would be funny.
Your mother was a hamster, and your father smelled of elderberry.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Sunday August 09 2020, @11:00PM
That game is such bullshit. Numbers of public organizations speak nothing of white supremacy. It only indicates how openly they can operate.
You just will never understand, you can't. It's literally impossible. That's not a thing. I don't pretend to myself, but I can easily acknowledge what's in front of your damn face. What stands out is your utter arrogance and denial. You think you do understand, lying with statistics like they were made for you, so typical. The only way to respond is to say you are full of it. You can argue about it all you want, but you will still be full of it.
Heh, funny that for me, your reputation didn't precede you, didn't know you were in that circle, but in these few marvelous moments much has been clarified, thankyouverymuch
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..