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posted by martyb on Saturday August 08 2020, @11:27AM   Printer-friendly
from the is-crime-data-report-trustworthy? dept.

I imagine most people here already know the stats, it's nothing new, but I found it interesting to review.

Many Americans Are Convinced Crime Is Rising In The U.S. They're Wrong:

"People estimated their risks for a whole host of bad-news life events — robbery, burglary, job loss and losing their health insurance. But the survey didn't just ask respondents to rate their chances: It also asked whether those things had actually happened to them in the last year.

And that combination of questions revealed something important about American fear: We are terrible at estimating our risk of crime — much worse than we are at guessing the danger of other bad things. Across that decade, respondents put their chance of being robbed in the coming year at about 15 percent. Looking back, the actual rate of robbery was 1.2 percent. In contrast, when asked to rate their risk of upcoming job loss, people guessed it was about 14.5 percent — much closer to the actual job loss rate of 12.9 percent."

[...] "In 2019, according to a survey conducted by Gallup, about 64 percent of Americans believed that there was more crime in the U.S. than there was a year ago. It's a belief we've consistently held for decades now, but as you can see in the chart below, we've been, just as consistently, very wrong."

Like I said, more of the same, but might be worth a discussion.


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  • (Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Saturday August 08 2020, @06:02PM (11 children)

    by fustakrakich (6150) on Saturday August 08 2020, @06:02PM (#1033526) Journal

    what about the fear mongering about white supremacy!!!, a force which is almost non-existent in modern America?

    HA! You're a funny guy! You working from home now that all the clubs are closed?

    --
    La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
  • (Score: 3, Insightful) by Phoenix666 on Saturday August 08 2020, @09:27PM (10 children)

    by Phoenix666 (552) on Saturday August 08 2020, @09:27PM (#1033643) Journal

    I don't know what reality you inhabit, but in this one the membership of the KKK is 3000 [adl.org]. The largest neo-Nazi group in the US has 400 [wikipedia.org] members. Even the panhandle of Idaho, a stronghold of Aryan Nations people in the 80's, has been largely rooted out.

    The reality is white supremacists are now a bugbear used by the Democratic party and others to keep minorities in line and drive their agenda.

    Meanwhile Antifa and BLM are rioting, committing arson, lobbing IEDs at federal officers, and seizing chunks of American cities to terrify businesses and residents. Does that constitute a threat to public order, or do they get a pass?

    --
    Washington DC delenda est.
    • (Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Saturday August 08 2020, @09:48PM (9 children)

      by fustakrakich (6150) on Saturday August 08 2020, @09:48PM (#1033654) Journal

      Ah, I see, you use statistics, not live the life. Well, it is true, from inside the plane, you can't see the tail is on fire. Happy landings!

      Meanwhile Antifa and BLM are rioting, committing arson, lobbing IEDs at federal officers, and seizing chunks of American cities to terrify businesses and residents.

      Yes, yes, of course they are...

      --
      La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
      • (Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday August 09 2020, @01:05PM (3 children)

        by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Sunday August 09 2020, @01:05PM (#1033775) Journal

        Ah, I see, you use statistics, not live the life.

        So statistics are yet another thing that frightens and confuses poor Caveman Fustakrakich? Who knew? I guess he heard you could lie with statistics.

        I have to say that I love the Caveman Fusta channel. You never know what crazy bullshit he'll pull next! Last episode, he redefined [soylentnews.org] the sociopathy/psychopathy thing (alert the DSM!), diagnosing thousands of people with psychopathy, and told us something was self-evident (though I guess we'll just have to wait to see what was supposed to be self-evident). Plus a guest appearance by aristarchus. Good times!

        • (Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Sunday August 09 2020, @06:24PM (2 children)

          by fustakrakich (6150) on Sunday August 09 2020, @06:24PM (#1033926) Journal

          No fear...

          I would never expect you to live in another man's shoes either. Just the nature of your psychosis. Your posts only clarify your condition

          --
          La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
          • (Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday August 09 2020, @10:59PM (1 child)

            by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Sunday August 09 2020, @10:59PM (#1034063) Journal

            I would never expect you to live in another man's shoes either.

            Hopefully, you will never use that sentence again, until you've lived in another man's shoes. /Sarc

            Funny how you can't express coherent thought, but there's red-bellied psychoses nesting in my posts. Quite the bird watcher!

            • (Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Sunday August 09 2020, @11:12PM

              by fustakrakich (6150) on Sunday August 09 2020, @11:12PM (#1034068) Journal

              Heh, you're quite a rare bird! Well, maybe not rare, but you sing an interesting tune

              --
              La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
      • (Score: 4, Insightful) by Phoenix666 on Sunday August 09 2020, @01:57PM (4 children)

        by Phoenix666 (552) on Sunday August 09 2020, @01:57PM (#1033808) Journal

        Sigh. So much for "believe the science" and "look at the facts," eh? Indeed, thank you for demonstrating how empty those slogans are.

        --
        Washington DC delenda est.
        • (Score: 2) by crafoo on Sunday August 09 2020, @02:42PM

          by crafoo (6639) on Sunday August 09 2020, @02:42PM (#1033827)

          Words have no meaning to a true believer. They are just sounds, vocal ticks, magic spells they use to achieve the outcomes they desire.

        • (Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Sunday August 09 2020, @06:22PM (2 children)

          by fustakrakich (6150) on Sunday August 09 2020, @06:22PM (#1033925) Journal

          There is no "science" in your stats. You're just talking racist trash. I fart in your general direction

          --
          La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
          • (Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Sunday August 09 2020, @10:10PM (1 child)

            by Phoenix666 (552) on Sunday August 09 2020, @10:10PM (#1034043) Journal

            You should write to Wikipedia and the Anti-Defamation League and tell them what racist trash they are, because they compiled those numbers. Go ahead. It would be funny.

            Your mother was a hamster, and your father smelled of elderberry.

            --
            Washington DC delenda est.
            • (Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Sunday August 09 2020, @11:00PM

              by fustakrakich (6150) on Sunday August 09 2020, @11:00PM (#1034064) Journal

              That game is such bullshit. Numbers of public organizations speak nothing of white supremacy. It only indicates how openly they can operate.

              You just will never understand, you can't. It's literally impossible. That's not a thing. I don't pretend to myself, but I can easily acknowledge what's in front of your damn face. What stands out is your utter arrogance and denial. You think you do understand, lying with statistics like they were made for you, so typical. The only way to respond is to say you are full of it. You can argue about it all you want, but you will still be full of it.

              Heh, funny that for me, your reputation didn't precede you, didn't know you were in that circle, but in these few marvelous moments much has been clarified, thankyouverymuch

              --
              La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..