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from the is-crime-data-report-trustworthy? dept.
I imagine most people here already know the stats, it's nothing new, but I found it interesting to review.
Many Americans Are Convinced Crime Is Rising In The U.S. They're Wrong:
"People estimated their risks for a whole host of bad-news life events — robbery, burglary, job loss and losing their health insurance. But the survey didn't just ask respondents to rate their chances: It also asked whether those things had actually happened to them in the last year.
And that combination of questions revealed something important about American fear: We are terrible at estimating our risk of crime — much worse than we are at guessing the danger of other bad things. Across that decade, respondents put their chance of being robbed in the coming year at about 15 percent. Looking back, the actual rate of robbery was 1.2 percent. In contrast, when asked to rate their risk of upcoming job loss, people guessed it was about 14.5 percent — much closer to the actual job loss rate of 12.9 percent."
[...] "In 2019, according to a survey conducted by Gallup, about 64 percent of Americans believed that there was more crime in the U.S. than there was a year ago. It's a belief we've consistently held for decades now, but as you can see in the chart below, we've been, just as consistently, very wrong."
Like I said, more of the same, but might be worth a discussion.
(Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @06:04PM (11 children)
many thieves won't take guns b/c it's a higher risk in many places. i.e. sometimes there's a higher charge for stealing the gun, then there's a higher charge for being in possession and selling, etc. not so much trouble to just steal cash and jewelry. easier to pocket too.
(Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @06:22PM (4 children)
Not much money in most guns either - street value is retail price at best, usually way less.
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Saturday August 08 2020, @06:45PM (3 children)
Street value is usually about 1/10 the value of the weapon. Pawn shop value is only about 1/3 to 1/2 the value of the weapon, street value even lower. The exception is when an individual is looking for a murder weapon, or a gang is arming up for a gang war, then all bets are off. You might get $500 for a worthless cheap automatic pistol that sells for $200 anywhere in America.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @08:06PM (2 children)
Intrigues me how you know so much about criminal firearms sales. Hmm.
(Score: 2) by Bot on Saturday August 08 2020, @09:39PM (1 child)
Yeah he talks about guns almost as much as a leftist. That's suspect.
Account abandoned.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 10 2020, @03:59AM
Everyone is suspect around there. Just about the only person I believe here anymore is when NCommander says something neat about computing.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @09:14PM
true, most professional/experienced criminals go after jewelry. They won't go after big things like television, they don't try to steal cars (they will try to steal something small and expensive in the car). They want a quick getaway.
A gun is a mixed bag. You steal a piece of jewelry and someone sees you with it later you can say it belongs to you and it's harder to prove otherwise. Guns need to be registered, get reported stolen, all this makes them harder to resell so you have to discount their sale price, etc...
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 09 2020, @08:30AM (4 children)
How many thieves have told you this?
Did you read a study that looked at whether thieves decline to steal guns or not?
Or are you just talking out of your ass?
I vote for the latter.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday August 09 2020, @01:11PM (3 children)
Ignoring that enough thieves may have told him so, we still have that the underlying argument is true. There are greatly penalties for stealing, selling, and carrying stolen weapons than there is for jewelry. And I strongly bet that police are going to get more worked up over $10,000 in stolen firearms on the street than in $10,000 in stolen jewelry or electronics, because you can't easily kill a police officer with a stolen wrist bracelet or TV.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 09 2020, @04:06PM (2 children)
And just as studies have shown that the death penalty (how much harsher can you get) is not a deterrent to committing murder, I'm not buying the story that harsher penalties for stealing guns (does that even exist?) deters thieves from stealing guns when they are available to steal.
GP needs provide some evidence* to be convincing. *Claiming* something is true isn't evidence.*
*Kind of like this for my claim:
https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/stories/states-with-no-death-penalty-share-lower-homicide-rates [deathpenaltyinfo.org]
https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/facts-and-research/murder-rates/murder-rate-of-death-penalty-states-compared-to-non-death-penalty-states [deathpenaltyinfo.org]
https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/news/study-international-data-shows-declining-murder-rates-after-abolition-of-death-penalty [deathpenaltyinfo.org]
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 09 2020, @08:17PM
murder and what to steal are vastly different situations. people aren't usually in the throws of passion when they decide to steal a handbag, despite the anitpiracy videos claiming otherwise. deterrents work for less important things. i even doubt the finding of the death penalty not being a deterrent, as i think i would kill certain people if it wasn't for the whole manhunt, prison and death penalty thing.
(Score: 2, Informative) by khallow on Monday August 10 2020, @03:56AM
And of course, there is a federal agency which specializes in tracking gun-related theft, smuggling, etc, the ATF (Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives) and makes a lot of firearm-related crimes, federal crimes [wklaw.com].
Stealing an expensive TV isn't going to trigger federal charges (except in relatively unusual circumstances like crossing state lines).
So then we're left with your assertion:
Compared to what? The kind of people who kill by impulse (which generally is the class of people who aren't deterred by murder, right?) generally don't face the death penalty.
And murder isn't comparable to theft. A lot more people steal stuff and steal a lot more often than people who murder. Sure, there's a few who aren't evaluating the risks of stealing stuff. But those who make a career of it (and what murderers do you know who make a career out of murder?) have a pretty good understanding of the risks. In particular, they often look for the easy marks. For example, looking for unlocked houses or vehicles, looking for valuables in plain view, etc. Theft of guns can be feasible, but the same thieves who are careful about taking extra chances probably are familiar with the risks of involving federal law enforcement in their activities (and the enhanced difficulty of selling stolen firearms).
Robbing dozens of houses of jewelry or electronics is going to put you on the radar of the local police or perhaps state level police. Robbing dozens of houses of guns is going to put you on the radar for the ATF.