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posted by martyb on Saturday August 08 2020, @11:27AM   Printer-friendly
from the is-crime-data-report-trustworthy? dept.

I imagine most people here already know the stats, it's nothing new, but I found it interesting to review.

Many Americans Are Convinced Crime Is Rising In The U.S. They're Wrong:

"People estimated their risks for a whole host of bad-news life events — robbery, burglary, job loss and losing their health insurance. But the survey didn't just ask respondents to rate their chances: It also asked whether those things had actually happened to them in the last year.

And that combination of questions revealed something important about American fear: We are terrible at estimating our risk of crime — much worse than we are at guessing the danger of other bad things. Across that decade, respondents put their chance of being robbed in the coming year at about 15 percent. Looking back, the actual rate of robbery was 1.2 percent. In contrast, when asked to rate their risk of upcoming job loss, people guessed it was about 14.5 percent — much closer to the actual job loss rate of 12.9 percent."

[...] "In 2019, according to a survey conducted by Gallup, about 64 percent of Americans believed that there was more crime in the U.S. than there was a year ago. It's a belief we've consistently held for decades now, but as you can see in the chart below, we've been, just as consistently, very wrong."

Like I said, more of the same, but might be worth a discussion.


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  • (Score: 2, Informative) by hemocyanin on Saturday August 08 2020, @06:22PM (9 children)

    by hemocyanin (186) on Saturday August 08 2020, @06:22PM (#1033538) Journal

    In the thread where we are talking about science and facts and ideology, a neutral fact is modded as troll. Democrats are as religious about their science as Republicans.

    Starting Score:    1  point
    Moderation   +1  
       Informative=1, Total=1
    Extra 'Informative' Modifier   0  

    Total Score:   2  
  • (Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @06:44PM (3 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @06:44PM (#1033549)

    Hemo, we know you are scared, but that does not give you the right to lie. This is why you get modded troll. You either need to grow some ovaries, or start telling the truth.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @06:46PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @06:46PM (#1033555)

      Why grow an ovary, when we've got you around?

    • (Score: 2, Insightful) by hemocyanin on Saturday August 08 2020, @07:24PM (1 child)

      by hemocyanin (186) on Saturday August 08 2020, @07:24PM (#1033586) Journal

      So it's an ad hominem mod, not one based in substance. And you wonder why liberals look askance at the authoritarian left?

      • (Score: -1, Flamebait) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @08:08PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @08:08PM (#1033612)

        Remember, hemo, ad hominem is saying you are wrong because you are a frightened idiot. What we are saying here is that you are a frightened idiot because you are wrong. Not the same thing at all. So, just stop it, you coward!

  • (Score: 3, Informative) by Runaway1956 on Saturday August 08 2020, @08:15PM (4 children)

    by Runaway1956 (2926) Subscriber Badge on Saturday August 08 2020, @08:15PM (#1033622) Journal

    I didn't mod you down - but you make mention of a "neutral fact". Sorry, Bubba, but any statement about "gun violence" is a partisan opinion. The fact is, guns don't do violence, they don't commit crimes, they don't even cause crimes. You would do as well to blame the wind on the the trees in your yard. "Every time the trees start swaying, it gets windy around here!"

    • (Score: -1, Flamebait) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @08:33PM (3 children)

      by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @08:33PM (#1033628)

      The fact is, guns don't do violence, they don't commit crimes, they don't even cause crimes.

      NRA talking-points from the guy with a journal on them? Strange.

      Guns facilitate violence, especially lethal violence. They make it easy, they have triggers for the easily triggered. And, America has a problem with gun fetishism. A gun, for a soldier, a cop, or a criminal, means they have power, and makes up for, um, shortcomings in other areas of masculinity. Most "self-defense" firearms end up being used on the owner their self, most often by their self. Guns make suicide quick and easy, and more likely to be fatal. Even the White House has admitted that limiting access to guns is preventative of veteran suicides. [npr.org] Not the mention the great success of gun-therapy in the case of the American Snipper dude. [nbcnews.com]

      Moar Guns, for Freedumb!!

      • (Score: 3, Informative) by Runaway1956 on Saturday August 08 2020, @08:54PM (2 children)

        by Runaway1956 (2926) Subscriber Badge on Saturday August 08 2020, @08:54PM (#1033633) Journal

        Your hand facilitate crime. Should we cut them off?

        Most "self-defense" firearms end up being used on the owner their self, most often by their self.

        Citation needed. Oh - you refer to suicide? So, it is your position that a person may not end their lives, when they see fit? That person must be "saved" so that corporate America can make another few thousand dollars off their miserable lives?

        As for Kyle, he went out doing what he wanted to do in life.

        Hey - I want you to understand something. If you are a hoplophobe - that is, if you are afraid of guns, there is no need for you to own a gun! Don't want one? Just don't get one! You'll be safe from guns. If there is no gun in your house, then it can't jump down from the mantle, or pick the lock on your gunsafe, and set out to cause murder and mayhem.

        None of us Second Amendment advocates demands that you buy a gun. You are safe from guns, if you want to be safe from guns.

        After all, I wouldn't expect someone who is afraid of snakes to keep snakes in the house. Or dogs. Or cats. It should be mentioned that you have more reason to fear cats, than you have to fear guns.

        • (Score: -1, Flamebait) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @09:29PM (1 child)

          by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @09:29PM (#1033645)

          None of us Second Amendment advocates demands that you buy a gun.

          Well, not quite. Sort of. In a recent discussion (a few months ago, I think) the Buzztard called me damn stupid when I admitted that in my more than fifty years of life I had never owned a gun. While that is not exactly a "demand" to buy a gun, it comes pretty damn close.

          • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @09:38PM

            by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 08 2020, @09:38PM (#1033650)

            Sorry for double posting but I wanted to add that I'm beginning to see a rather worrying trend which comes pretty damn close to equating guns and God. [youtube.com] Are you sure you 2A types haven't gone over the edge worshiping your guns?