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posted by LaminatorX on Saturday April 04 2015, @10:33PM   Printer-friendly
from the Que-lastima! dept.

A report that could be bad news for many Californians describes how 2 faults are, in fact, connected which might have significant consequences:

University of California, Berkeley seismologists have proven that the Hayward Fault is essentially a branch of the Calaveras Fault that runs east of San Jose, which means that both could rupture together, resulting in a significantly more destructive earthquake than previously thought. "The maximum earthquake on a fault is proportional to its length, so by having the two directly connected, we can have a rupture propagating across from one to the other, making a larger quake," said lead researcher Estelle Chaussard, a post-doctoral fellow in the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory. "People have been looking for evidence of this for a long time, but only now do we have the data to prove it."

The 70-kilometer-long Hayward Fault is already known as one of the most dangerous in the country because it runs through large population areas from its northern limit on San Pablo Bay at Richmond to its southern end south of Fremont. In an update of seismic hazards last month, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated a 14.3 percent likelihood of a magnitude 6.7 or greater earthquake on the Hayward Fault in the next 30 years, and a 7.4 percent chance on the Calaveras Fault. These are based on the assumption that the two faults are independent systems, and that the maximum quake on the Hayward Fault would be between magnitudes 6.9 and 7.0. Given that the Hayward and Calaveras faults are connected, the energy released in a simultaneous rupture could be 2.5 times greater, or a magnitude 7.3 quake.

"A rupture from Richmond to Gilroy would produce about a 7.3 magnitude quake, but it would be even greater if the rupture extended south to Hollister, where the Calaveras Fault meets the San Andreas Fault," Chaussard said.

 
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  • (Score: 2) by kaszz on Saturday April 04 2015, @10:40PM

    by kaszz (4211) on Saturday April 04 2015, @10:40PM (#166514) Journal

    With huge cities in a zone that will throw a serious earthquake. It must be a really precarious choice to stay in the region? When it occurs, you can't leave town because the exit roads will be clogged. Life and property will also be lost. Otoh there's Silicon Valley and nice beach life.

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  • (Score: 2, Interesting) by nitehawk214 on Sunday April 05 2015, @03:56AM

    by nitehawk214 (1304) on Sunday April 05 2015, @03:56AM (#166561)

    The time to leave California was the time they ran out of electricity due to corruption and did nothing to fix it or the time they ran out of water and did nothing to fix it. (until very recently)

    --
    "Don't you ever miss the days when you used to be nostalgic?" -Loiosh
    • (Score: 3, Touché) by kaszz on Sunday April 05 2015, @05:09PM

      by kaszz (4211) on Sunday April 05 2015, @05:09PM (#166697) Journal

      Without electricity or water California will have fixed itself ;-)

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday April 05 2015, @11:24PM

    by Anonymous Coward on Sunday April 05 2015, @11:24PM (#166794)

    New Orleans was rebuilt after Katrina...and another Katrina will have the same effect. New Orleans is still located in a big bowl just off the coast.

    Unless it truly falls into the ocean, people will live there.