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posted by mrcoolbp on Sunday April 05 2015, @10:38PM   Printer-friendly
from the first-law-of-robotics dept.

Could the Tesla factor push the market for self driving cars faster than most anticipate.? Self-driving features may give them the edge on the increasing competition in the emerging electric vehicle market.

“Tech” is an attribute that is authentically a part of the Tesla brand. Self-driving features are essentially tech and in this area Tesla has been pushing out in front; most recently with an announcement that this summer an over-the-air update will enable their “Autopilot” feature on all Model Ss. (Autopilot will allow, as Tesla puts it, on-ramp to off-ramp self-driving.)

This new feature could be Tesla's saving grace, as well as a market force to more quickly push other automakers to use the new technology.

The convenience and safety of self-driving technologies offers Tesla a lifeline; “reasons to buy” for consumers who lack the environmental fervor of their early customers. And these reasons are compelling to a large number of car buyers; enough for many to overlook the limitations on an electric power-train–opening up a vastly larger market for Tesla.

 
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  • (Score: 3, Insightful) by frojack on Monday April 06 2015, @02:03AM

    by frojack (1554) on Monday April 06 2015, @02:03AM (#166820) Journal

    Tesla's tech edge is not in driver-less cars though.

    There are at least three or seven companies much closer to driverless than is Tesla. The car that just drove cross country was a beamer as I recall.
    And if you bolt on driverless capabilities to a tesla they are just as range limited by the batteries as they are now.

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  • (Score: 2) by takyon on Monday April 06 2015, @04:17AM

    by takyon (881) <reversethis-{gro ... s} {ta} {noykat}> on Monday April 06 2015, @04:17AM (#166840) Journal

    Driverless is a natural fit for Tesla. The major auto manufacturers may face trouble if driverless leads to a driverless Uber model that cuts into car ownership. Tesla is targeting the luxury market and still has relatively low sales. Even if Tesla manages to produce a $30k or $20k car, they will still be pricey.

    Tesla needs the cheapest and most energy dense batteries it can get. Which is why the company/Musk is building a "gigafactory" to try and cut battery costs by 50% and sell batteries to solar panel owners. If Tesla abandoned a move into the mass car market, driverless would still make a great addition to their futuristic $70k luxury cars, especially if it only adds $2-5k to the price tag. Clearly some basic systems are already factored into the price if they can enable Level 2-3 driverless [nhtsa.gov] in the Model S with an OTA update.

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    • (Score: 2) by frojack on Monday April 06 2015, @04:59AM

      by frojack (1554) on Monday April 06 2015, @04:59AM (#166847) Journal

      A 20K car is not pricey. Especially if you never need to put gas in it.

      The Cheapest new cars [autobytel.com] you can buy are around 16 to 18K.

      The Model S is a nice car, but its not all that futuristic any more. Its safety tech package is only now catching up with high end Cadillac, Chrysler, BMW, Lexus, etc. Their tech is in the drive motors, battery systems, etc.

      They have a bigger jump to get to driverless than does Audi or BMW.

      On another issue, I wonder how eager owners will be to send a driverless car out on an uber run? Thats a big investment out running around on its own.

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      • (Score: 2) by takyon on Monday April 06 2015, @05:12AM

        by takyon (881) <reversethis-{gro ... s} {ta} {noykat}> on Monday April 06 2015, @05:12AM (#166850) Journal

        Big companies like Uber itself and rental car companies will send cars out on an Uber run. They will buy, operate, and maintain driverless cars. Companies like Uber with deep investment will kick drivers to the curb and pocket the profits. It will be possible for the little guy to buy a driverless car and work out a ridesharing agreement with friends or strangers, but it is risky and Uber/etc. will negotiate lower costs and higher revenues.

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  • (Score: 2) by bziman on Monday April 06 2015, @04:22AM

    by bziman (3577) on Monday April 06 2015, @04:22AM (#166841)

    Range isn't an issue for most daily drives. Even the cheap 25 mile electric Ford would be enough for any commute I've had in the last 20 years. The 200+ mile range of a Tesla is almost as limiting as my inability to sit in a car for several hours.

    Right now, the twice a year I need a pickup truck, I go rent one. If I had a Tesla and really needed to take a 400 mile road trip, I'd just rent something for that one occasion.

    If you have a two hour commute each way and no charging station at your office, then it won't work for you. But most people I know would think four hours a day on the road would be insane.... not normal.

    • (Score: 2) by frojack on Monday April 06 2015, @05:42AM

      by frojack (1554) on Monday April 06 2015, @05:42AM (#166854) Journal

      My grandkids live 400 miles away.
      I see them far more than once a year.
      We just got back from a drive to baseball spring training, 1400 miles each way, not counting the side trip to Vegas, and wine country in California. After buying an $90,000 Tesla, I'd be more than a little perturbed to have to rent a car for three weeks or a weekend several times a year.

      Never assume your work-a-day situation is the target market for an electric car. Never assume anybody goes to work, and from work every day with no side trips to the barber shop, veterinarian, deli or what have you. You think you could live in a 25 mile ford? Reset your odometer every morning for the next two weeks and see if you really believe that.

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      • (Score: 2) by bob_super on Monday April 06 2015, @06:50PM

        by bob_super (1357) on Monday April 06 2015, @06:50PM (#167084)

        The problem might be how driving is the best solution for a "1400 miles each way" trip. The gas, wear&tear, oil change and driver strain should in theory put other transport systems at a significant competitive advantage.
        It is the case in denser Europe/Asia.

        • (Score: 2) by frojack on Monday April 06 2015, @08:56PM

          by frojack (1554) on Monday April 06 2015, @08:56PM (#167163) Journal

          You't think so, and rail travel would have been a distant second choice, if it wasn't so ridiculously expensive and actually WENT where I wanted to go.

          With two drivers, 1400 miles isn't that far, and modern roads and modern cars make for an enjoyable trip.

          We spent 30 years in Alaska, where you can't drive anywhere except back and forth to work. We like driving, and had a lot of pent up demand, and the ability to take a detour on the spur of a moment, or stop to look at a historical marker are things we enjoy. Seeking our enjoyable new routes, back roads, and visiting out of the way towns is also enjoyable.

          All those things go out the window with scheduled mass transit, planes, trains or busses.
          And that kind of travel also is also not an option when you have range anxiety, sparse refueling locations, and long refueling times (measured in hours).

          Realistically, to be other than a shopping or commuting platform Tesla would have to double the battery range, or maybe triple it.

          Some people are fine with the limitation. Right now, electric vehicles are another source of social regimentation. Live in the apartment. Work in the office building. Watch tv. Don't do anything or say anything or go anywhere. Sit there and be a good little citizen.

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          • (Score: 2) by bob_super on Monday April 06 2015, @09:15PM

            by bob_super (1357) on Monday April 06 2015, @09:15PM (#167173)

            > Realistically, to be other than a shopping or commuting platform Tesla would have to double the battery range, or maybe triple it.

            The extra weight would kill the concept, and the cheap EVs couldn't even exist.
            Most people now live in cities, and few people drive over 80 miles in a day. Since most US households have multiple cars, and very few need all of them to exceed the current Tesla range, plus the car borrow/rental option for the occasional need, there isn't that big of a market to warrant the extra engineering. But someone may attack it using Tesla's free patents (or the Gigafactory output), if they believe otherwise.

            But if rationality was the main driver of car buying, I wouldn't be dodging massive pickup trucks and SUVs on the roads every day.
              - It's huge! how many humans does it carry?
              - Usually one.