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We've been reading headlines about Tesla, Nissan Leaf, and several other recent arrivals in the EV market the past few years, but the growth curves are starting to look very interesting:
We already wrote about the recent ZSW report that found that the world electric car market was up to 740,000 at the end of 2014. Other cool stats noted there included:
- China saw 54,000 electric cars registered in 2014, a growth of 120%.
- The US grew 69% to hit 290,000 total electric cars, about 39% of all electric cars on the road.
- Japan grew 45% to hit 110,000 total electric cars.
- The overall global electric car market saw a growth of 76%.
However, we missed sharing a big one, but thanks to reve putting it in a headline and a hat tip from Bob Wallace, we’re getting it now. Actually, you just saw it in the title: ~43% of the world’s electric cars were bought in 2014.
Coupled with the ongoing steep drop in the price of solar panels, we are quickly approaching an epochal tipping point in transportation, energy, and many other realms. My family is ready to switch to an EV as soon as a mass market car is available where we are. How about other Soylentils, do you plan to jump to an EV too, or hang on to your ICE?
(Score: 2, Troll) by tftp on Tuesday April 21 2015, @06:18AM
I won't be waiting until the government cancels the tax credit. I own a Prius since 2005. Taxes are used to incentivize something that the society wants more of. Why should I reject the offer? Solar panels are also incentivized with a tax break - should I insist on burning coal instead? (I have solar panels as well, 6 kW of them.) I just do what I think is appropriate.
I bought a hybrid 10 years ago because I needed a new car, and this one was priced right, and offered significant savings. However after getting one I realized that it comes with yet another advantage - the electric CVT. It is extremely smooth and pleasant.
Today, were I looking for another vehicle, I can't buy an EV. It's hilly around here, and nobody has a calculator for effects of hills. I rarely drive more than 50-70 miles per day, but when I do it becomes 200 to 500 miles per day. No chargers anywhere - you are lucky to find gas on rural roads of CA and NV. Today a hybrid is the only type of a vehicle that fits the bill - it has unlimited range and it requires no charger at the parking. I do not want to worry every day about the battery in the car - I have enough other worries to deal with. There are too many scenarios that can leave you with no joules in the battery and no way to put them in. Rarely people choose something that costs more to run, but in return is less dependable than the alternative.
EVs are OK for some people, but those must fit a very specific niche. The owner of an EV must own a house with a garage. He has to work well within the range, considering inevitable side trips. He has to have a second vehicle for longer trips - to airport, to the beach, to a park, etc. He has to be always aware of the SOC of his car; he has to have a plan for the day when he returns home from work, plugs the EV to charge, and then his phone rings and his wife says that her car broke down 50 miles away and she needs to be picked up. The SOC of the EV is 30%, and it won't even get *there*, let alone the round trip. Those problems do not exist for owners of traditional and hybrid vehicles. An EV today is a special car for a special purpose. A few EVs that can do more cost so much that you would be better off calling a limo whenever you want to get anywhere, instead of buying them (these EVs will never justify their purchase price.)
Some say that if the price is low enough than even an EV with a small or moderate range becomes viable. Perhaps that is true; however they need to remember that each vehicle is individually taxed and insured. It costs real money to own a worthless car. People may not be able to afford a cheap EV if they have to have a second vehicle as a backup. That might work in some families, in some usage patterns, but this is yet another example of special circumstances.
I may need to move soon. I will be living in an apartment building. I won't have a garage anymore. Imagine what would I have to go through if, for some unfortunate choice, I own an EV? My choice of viable housing would be reduced from a hundred possibilities to maybe five; those would be high end places, and they will charge dearly for the pleasure of living and parking there. The EV would be enormously expensive to me; it might be even cheaper to get rid of it and buy a regular car. Fortunately, I do not face this problem - and I have no desire to. My car has no special requirements and can be fueled up at any gas station in about three minutes. This is the boat that most people are in. The remaining few... they enjoy their EVs because they work well for their specific needs. Should we expect to see more EVs sold? It depends on what they can do to people, and on what people need from their cars. Plenty of people who can have an EV and want to have an EV got an EV already. The rest are not interested. Growth of the EV market will be only driven by slow expansion of charging networks, chargers in apartment buildings and in the street, faster charging batteries. The needs of people aren't going to change drastically (unless everyone becomes unemployed and has nowhere to go.)