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For years, studies have warned that a warmer planet might mean fewer cups of morning coffee--but a new study claims that rising temperatures are already taking their toll on East Africa's coffee crops.
The study, conducted by researchers at the University of Witwatersrand in South Africa, found that Tanzania's production of Arabica coffee--the most-consumed coffee species in the world--has fallen by 46 percent since 1966. Over the same period of time, the average nighttime temperature in Tanzania increased 1.4 degrees Celsius.
[...]The researchers analyzed the impact of climate variables on crop yield. Through statistical analysis, they found that increasing temperature had a negative effect on coffee yields --- but the specific interaction between temperature and coffee growth surprised them.
"We've always known that high temperatures and low rainfall impact coffee," [Alessandro Craparo, a co-author of the study] said. "What this study found, and what's really important, is its nighttime temperatures that are increasing at a rapid rate and having a bigger impact on coffee than what's happening in the day."
Arabica coffee is a sensitive plant that needs cool nights in order to thrive. For each 1-degree Celsius rise in nighttime temperatures, the researchers found, Arabica coffee yields declined by an average of 302 pounds of coffee per hectare, almost half of the typical small producer's entire yield. If trends continue as they have in previous decade, the study says, Arabica yields in Tanzania will drop to around 320 pounds per hectare by 2060.
(Score: 4, Informative) by bradley13 on Friday May 08 2015, @08:06AM
OK, let's panic, another global warming scare. But geez, they're scraping the bottom of the barrel with this one:
- Tanzania is the world's 19th largest coffee producer [wikia.com]. So not exactly one of the big ones.
- Coffee production in Tanzania has been stagnating since the 1990s [tacri.org]. Not because the plants won't make beans (but see below), but because "production costs are high" and "falling world coffee prices" and "lack of motivation to invest".
- Here is a more detailed look at the problems with coffee production in Tanzania [worldbank.org]. Lots of problems, almost all having to do with government, regulation, investment, poor farming practices, corruption - but nothing at all about climate problems.
The detailed report specifically discusses the problem with declining yields and declining quality:
"The chief reasons for the declines appear to be nationalization of estates; aging coffee trees, some close to 100 years old (trees had not been replaced since the introduction of the crop); poor husbandry; rundown central pulperies, forcing farmers to do their own primary processing; the spread of coffee berry disease after 1975 to all arabica growing areas of the country; and the failure to introduce new disease-resistant high-yielding varieties."
So - what else is the fault of AGW?
Everyone is somebody else's weirdo.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday May 08 2015, @08:17PM
It probably took you a lot longer to do that research and write that comment than it would have taken you to have read the paper and see where they addressed those kind of issues. For example:
You're still probably right. Massive conspiracy. Nobody is as clever as you, the emperor has no clothes, etc.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Friday May 08 2015, @10:52PM
For my take on that question, I suspect the reason is more to diplomatically avoid local anti-colonialist opprobrium than to conform to some climate change narrative. This actually looks to me like changes you would expect from early stage AGW. They have a reasonable model of how crops would be affected by a significant increase in night time temperatures which in turn is an early onset effect reasonably predicted by AGW models. I don't quite buy the claim that the current increase in temperature has such a profound effect on crop production due to the variety of confounding effects, but it isn't that much of a stretch. Further, their references apparently demonstrate a correlation between higher night time temperatures and reduced crop production in tropical areas which would be a concrete and significant example of AGW harm.