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posted by CoolHand on Wednesday May 20 2015, @03:33AM   Printer-friendly
from the moving-to-the-one-party-system dept.

Daniel McGraw writes that based on their demographic characteristics the Democratic and Republican parties face two very different futures. There’s been much written about how millennials are becoming a reliable voting bloc for Democrats, but there’s been much less attention paid to one of the biggest get-out-the-vote challenges for the Republican Party heading into the next presidential election: The Republican Party voter is old—and getting older and far more Republicans than Democrats have died since the 2012 elections. By combining presidential election exit polls with mortality rates per age group from the U.S. Census Bureau, McGraw calculated that, of the 61 million who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012, about 2.75 million will be dead by the 2016 election. About 2.3 million of President Barack Obama’s voters have died too but that leaves a big gap in between, a difference of roughly 453,000 in favor of the Democrats. “I’ve never seen anyone doing any studies on how many dead people can’t vote,” laughs William Frey, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who specializes in demographic studies. “I’ve seen studies on how many dead people do vote. The old Daley Administration in Chicago was very good at that.”

Frey points out that, since Republicans are getting whiter and older, replacing the voters that leave this earth with young ones is essential for them to be competitive in presidential elections. "Millennials (born 1981 to 1997) now are larger in numbers than baby boomers ([born] 1946 to 1964), and how they vote will make the big difference. And the data says that if Republicans focus on economic issues and stay away from social ones like gay marriage, they can make serious inroads with millennials.” Exit polling indicates that millennials have split about 65-35 in favor of the Dems in the past two elections. If that split holds true in 2016, Democrats will have picked up a two million vote advantage among first-time voters. These numbers combined with the voter death data puts Republicans at an almost 2.5 million voter disadvantage going into 2016.

 
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  • (Score: 2, Insightful) by Michelle on Wednesday May 20 2015, @04:13AM

    by Michelle (4097) on Wednesday May 20 2015, @04:13AM (#185296)

    What difference does it make? They're both the same.

    This boat has tipped so far to the starboard it's capsizing...

    --
    "Right now is the only moment you'll ever have; so why be miserable?"
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  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday May 20 2015, @04:30AM

    by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday May 20 2015, @04:30AM (#185299)

    Helm to port! All hands! No!! not Jade Helm, the helm, to port!!! That's left, for you landlubbers! But since it is matter of survival, all too the port rail, and them what won't, o'er the side with 'em! They were almost gone, anyway. Call me, Ismael. This here is Queequeg. He is not a Republican.

  • (Score: 2) by sjames on Wednesday May 20 2015, @04:36AM

    by sjames (2882) on Wednesday May 20 2015, @04:36AM (#185303) Journal

    Well, I say D'nR!

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday May 20 2015, @06:47AM

      by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday May 20 2015, @06:47AM (#185331)

      Perhaps a D&C would be more appropriate.

      The problem is the republicans are losing the youth vote.
      If the youth won't vote for them, why should the republicans keep on sticking up for their right to life?