SoylentNews is people
SoylentNews
Daniel McGraw writes that based on their demographic characteristics the Democratic and Republican parties face two very different futures. There’s been much written about how millennials are becoming a reliable voting bloc for Democrats, but there’s been much less attention paid to one of the biggest get-out-the-vote challenges for the Republican Party heading into the next presidential election: The Republican Party voter is old—and getting older and far more Republicans than Democrats have died since the 2012 elections. By combining presidential election exit polls with mortality rates per age group from the U.S. Census Bureau, McGraw calculated that, of the 61 million who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012, about 2.75 million will be dead by the 2016 election. About 2.3 million of President Barack Obama’s voters have died too but that leaves a big gap in between, a difference of roughly 453,000 in favor of the Democrats. “I’ve never seen anyone doing any studies on how many dead people can’t vote,” laughs William Frey, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who specializes in demographic studies. “I’ve seen studies on how many dead people do vote. The old Daley Administration in Chicago was very good at that.”
Frey points out that, since Republicans are getting whiter and older, replacing the voters that leave this earth with young ones is essential for them to be competitive in presidential elections. "Millennials (born 1981 to 1997) now are larger in numbers than baby boomers ([born] 1946 to 1964), and how they vote will make the big difference. And the data says that if Republicans focus on economic issues and stay away from social ones like gay marriage, they can make serious inroads with millennials.” Exit polling indicates that millennials have split about 65-35 in favor of the Dems in the past two elections. If that split holds true in 2016, Democrats will have picked up a two million vote advantage among first-time voters. These numbers combined with the voter death data puts Republicans at an almost 2.5 million voter disadvantage going into 2016.
(Score: 2) by VLM on Wednesday May 20 2015, @12:02PM
the only possible solution must come from a rebirth of public morality, civic education and involvement.
Well that's rather close minded. There's all kinds of outcomes including of course negative ones. There's no inherent reason our cities can't permanently turn into something like Somalia, pretty much forever. We're working as hard as we can at getting their right now and we'll probably succeed. Study the fall of the roman empire, the fall of the american empire is likely to be the same because geography and technology change but people never do.
Personally I'm hoping Canada or the UK invade us and take over. Their government is far superior to ours, they have a working health care system (admittedly we're the only country other than failed states like Somalia that doesn't have a working health care system). Also they have a working educational system, another thing that would be nice for an empire to impose on us. Also Canadian women are hot so if they "have to" dominate us then I guess I'll grin and bear it.
Its interesting that the older I get and the more I know about the world, the more I feel we were better off staying a part of the British Empire. Man... we'd have a real health care system, a real educational system... Maybe if we asked nicely they'd let us back in?
(Score: 3, Interesting) by Phoenix666 on Wednesday May 20 2015, @02:59PM
Canada maybe, UK no way.
I think that to some extent the deficiencies in the American system that are now coming to a head are rooted in the original sin of the British class system and deeply rooted aristocracy. Those who broke from the Crown were not opposed to aristocracy per se, it's just that they wanted to be the aristocrats. The men who did the fighting thought they were fighting for something quite different, which they found out not long after independence during the Whiskey Rebellion. They learned, alas, that the new boss was the same as the old boss.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 2) by VLM on Wednesday May 20 2015, @03:19PM
Perhaps when Scotland eventually goes independent they're too small to make it alone, but maybe if they took over the entire USA as their 33rd council area...
The problem with being taken over by Scotland instead of Canada of course is we'd be trading delicious maple syrup for haggis.
(Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Wednesday May 20 2015, @03:58PM
Answer: whiskey.
Washington DC delenda est.