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Barclays PLC analyst Brian Johnson predicts that U.S. automobile sales will drop 40% within the next 25 years due to disruption caused by driverless technology, and that vehicle ownership rates will be cut in half as families move to having just one car:
Large-volume automakers "would need to shrink dramatically to survive," Johnson wrote. "GM and Ford would need to reduce North American production by up to 68 percent and 58 percent, respectively."
Self-driving cars have become a frequent topic for auto executives as the technology for the vehicles emerges. The market for autonomous technology will grow to $42 billion by 2025 and self-driving cars may account for a quarter of global auto sales by 2035, according to Boston Consulting Group. By 2017, partially autonomous vehicles will become available in "large numbers," the firm said in a report in April.
Johnson's report, entitled "Disruptive Mobility," contends that the shift to cars that drive themselves will upend the auto industry. "While extreme, a historical precedent exists," Johnson wrote. "Horses once filled the many roles that cars fill today, but as the automobile came along, the population of horses dropped sharply."
"By removing the driver from the equation (the largest cost in a taxi ride), the average cost per mile to the consumer could be 44 cents for a private ride in a standard sedan and 8 cents for a shared ride in a two-seater," Johnson wrote, noting that would be "well below" the $3 to $3.50 a mile consumers now pay to ride in an UberX car or the $1 to $1.50 a mile for an UberPool vehicle.
(Score: 2) by Dunbal on Thursday May 21 2015, @05:15PM
Since it is impossible to be at three different places at the same time, not everyone is satisfied today. Therefore you can't claim that if not everyone is satisfied tomorrow, somehow something has changed. It will still be impossible to be at three different places at the same time. Ahh, but if you stagger, then an automated vehicle that can drive itself empty can be much more efficient.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by Zinho on Thursday May 21 2015, @06:09PM
That's correct, I'm saying that both now and in the driverless future this problem will be the same, and will have the same level of dissatisfaction given the same number of vehicles available. I'm also saying that staggering is a suboptimal solution; it causes problems that didn't exist before (arriving early and late can both cause issues).
The reason I bring this up is to refute the article's assertion that somehow, after cars start driving themselves, that there will be fewer cars on the street. My personal use case refutes that - I'd be using two cars whether they drove themselves or not. In fact, I'm willing to say that if the cars drove themselves (and didn't require a licensed driver to operate) that I'd probably buy a third car; the situation in my case is opposite of the trend the author proposes.
Therefore you can't claim that if not everyone is satisfied tomorrow, somehow something has changed.
I'm not the one saying a change is coming, the author is. They are proposing that a specific change (cars driving themselves) will have a specific effect (fewer cars on the road). The burden's not on me to prove the author correct. By saying that fewer cars will be sold, the author is suggesting that people will suddenly be satisfied with fewer cars than they are with the current number. I don't believe that's the case for everyone, and gave specific reason why it's not the case for me.
YMMV. (pun intended)
"Space Exploration is not endless circles in low earth orbit." -Buzz Aldrin
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday May 21 2015, @07:32PM
With driverless cars taxis will be cheaper, so that leads to it being more economical to get rid of the second car and just use taxies on the occasions where a second car would be needed for some families. Perhaps it wouldn't be worth it in your case, but I'm sure there are plenty of cases where that is true. Will it be as much as is claimed, it is too difficult to say, I think it is too far in the future and there are too many variables to have any confidence in the numbers given, though I think it is likely correct with the general trend.
(Score: 2) by Dunbal on Thursday May 21 2015, @09:48PM
My personal fear is that taxis, while cheaper, will be so disgusting no one will be able to use them. I am imagining short term rental driverless cars just a little less hygenic than amusement park rides. Especially at night. Yeurk. Kudos to the company that prides itself in spotless cars.