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Barclays PLC analyst Brian Johnson predicts that U.S. automobile sales will drop 40% within the next 25 years due to disruption caused by driverless technology, and that vehicle ownership rates will be cut in half as families move to having just one car:
Large-volume automakers "would need to shrink dramatically to survive," Johnson wrote. "GM and Ford would need to reduce North American production by up to 68 percent and 58 percent, respectively."
Self-driving cars have become a frequent topic for auto executives as the technology for the vehicles emerges. The market for autonomous technology will grow to $42 billion by 2025 and self-driving cars may account for a quarter of global auto sales by 2035, according to Boston Consulting Group. By 2017, partially autonomous vehicles will become available in "large numbers," the firm said in a report in April.
Johnson's report, entitled "Disruptive Mobility," contends that the shift to cars that drive themselves will upend the auto industry. "While extreme, a historical precedent exists," Johnson wrote. "Horses once filled the many roles that cars fill today, but as the automobile came along, the population of horses dropped sharply."
"By removing the driver from the equation (the largest cost in a taxi ride), the average cost per mile to the consumer could be 44 cents for a private ride in a standard sedan and 8 cents for a shared ride in a two-seater," Johnson wrote, noting that would be "well below" the $3 to $3.50 a mile consumers now pay to ride in an UberX car or the $1 to $1.50 a mile for an UberPool vehicle.
(Score: 2, Informative) by WillAdams on Thursday May 21 2015, @05:50PM
When my wife and I had a single car, it resulted in thousands of additional miles of travelling:
- she'd have to take me to work
- returning to home (extra trip)
- run errands during the day
- pick me up at work (extra trip)
- return home
- I'd then take her to work
- return home (extra trip)
- run errands
- return to get her (extra trip)
- return home
4 extra trips per day, doubling our commuting distance.
I've actually found that having 3 vehicles reduces such problems --- when one vehicle goes into the shop, there are still two for us to drive, and when my teenage daughter wants a vehicle we usually have one to spare.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday May 21 2015, @07:04PM
I have one car with my wife. She needs it fairly rarely as she does not work. At those point yes it is a bit extra. But I work ~10-15 min drive away (about 5 miles). I would ride a bike if it were in any way safe (it is not).
Yes it is double once and awhile. However I can clean that up a bit.
- she'd have to take me to work
- run errands during the day
- pick me up at work (sorta extra trip)
- return home
- I'd then take her to work
- run errands
- return to get her (sorta extra trip)
- return home
You have 2 extra trips because you insist on 'going home' instead of just getting it over with. Or you trade errands which eliminates much of the 'extra'. It does mean sometimes buying tampons.
Overall savings is probably ~1500 a year. It means communicating with your wife about what is going on and what to do.
(Score: 2) by bob_super on Thursday May 21 2015, @07:16PM
> when one vehicle goes into the shop, there are still two for us to drive
Unless your cars routinely spend weeks per year in the shop, you're way better off renting when you need.
(Tell your teen that she can bike.)
(Score: 1) by WillAdams on Thursday May 21 2015, @07:26PM
I described it as a convenience, not cost savings.
That said, the third vehicle is a crew cab truck which we use for long vacation trips and enough hauling of material that getting a rental is prohibitively expensive compared to insurance (multi-vehicle discount), an annual inspection (which most years doesn't check emissions), &c. It doesn't cost that much extra, and the added convenience is well worth it.
(Score: 1) by tftp on Thursday May 21 2015, @07:43PM
(Tell your teen that she can bike.)
It's far more dangerous than driving a car.
(Score: 2) by iwoloschin on Thursday May 21 2015, @08:19PM
Really? Citation please?
(Score: 2, Informative) by tftp on Thursday May 21 2015, @08:40PM
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday May 22 2015, @01:28AM
You need 6 cars, in case 3 of them are in the shop at once.