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Barclays PLC analyst Brian Johnson predicts that U.S. automobile sales will drop 40% within the next 25 years due to disruption caused by driverless technology, and that vehicle ownership rates will be cut in half as families move to having just one car:
Large-volume automakers "would need to shrink dramatically to survive," Johnson wrote. "GM and Ford would need to reduce North American production by up to 68 percent and 58 percent, respectively."
Self-driving cars have become a frequent topic for auto executives as the technology for the vehicles emerges. The market for autonomous technology will grow to $42 billion by 2025 and self-driving cars may account for a quarter of global auto sales by 2035, according to Boston Consulting Group. By 2017, partially autonomous vehicles will become available in "large numbers," the firm said in a report in April.
Johnson's report, entitled "Disruptive Mobility," contends that the shift to cars that drive themselves will upend the auto industry. "While extreme, a historical precedent exists," Johnson wrote. "Horses once filled the many roles that cars fill today, but as the automobile came along, the population of horses dropped sharply."
"By removing the driver from the equation (the largest cost in a taxi ride), the average cost per mile to the consumer could be 44 cents for a private ride in a standard sedan and 8 cents for a shared ride in a two-seater," Johnson wrote, noting that would be "well below" the $3 to $3.50 a mile consumers now pay to ride in an UberX car or the $1 to $1.50 a mile for an UberPool vehicle.
(Score: 2) by vux984 on Friday May 22 2015, @02:40AM
I've seen people say this a lot, but it makes no sense. When you get used to being driven around, you're not going to suddenly be able to take control when something goes wrong, because you won't be expecting it.
Quite. That's idiotic and won't work in ANY scenario. If the driver needs to be paying attention its not a driverless car. If the driver needs to be paying attention; he might as well drive as that will help him pay attention. If the car has an emergency it has an accident and its responsible for it. No way it can be any other way. However there are lots of situations where we can expect a driverless car to need a human driver -present-.
I see 3 stages of self driving cars:
phase 1 - The car provides lane assist and collision avoidance etc. The driver is still driving. We are very nearly there now.
phase 2 - The car can mostly drive itself; and in the event it can't navigate something; it pulls over and hands control over to the human driver at a stop. The car is responsible for all its own driving. The human is free to read or take a nap. But a driver must still be present. The human may also at their option take or rescind control of the car during 'safe' maneouvers (e.g. linear travelling at constant speed).
phase 3 - The car can reliably drive itself. It can operate with unlicensed passengers, children, or even with no passengers at all.
We're pretty much at phase 1 now.
Google etc are taking us to phase 2. But the thing about phase two is that there are going to be all kinds of things it can't cope with. What if its driving to a park, and the parking lot is an unmarked field. What if there is an accident and police are directing traffic. etc. etc. What if its involved in an accident - a human is present to collect details, arrange towing etc. What if some pranksters drag a garbage can into the street blocking just to mess with (or vanadalize or steal...) self driving cars. A human driver is present and expected.
Phase 3 -- We're a LONG way away from phase 3. And its not until phase 3 that car ownership is likely to drop. I don't see us being there in 25 years but who knows.