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posted by martyb on Tuesday May 26 2015, @02:47PM   Printer-friendly
from the On-a-Pale-Horse-vs-Being-a-Green-Mother dept.

The world population is growing because the birth rate exceeds the death rate, so to stabilize the world population either the birth rate needs to drop, or the death rate needs to increase. The most cited reference for population studies is the projections of future population (PDF) made by the Population Division of the United Nations. The UN report projects the world population to eventually stabilize as a result of countries settling in to a birth rate that falls around the replacement level.

A commentary by Stephen Warren in the open access journal Earth's Future takes the UN report to task for focusing on birth rate. He notes that all species generate offspring in numbers well above the replacement level of two, but you don't see historically the kind of population growth like you do with humans. He argues that despite all the negative feedback mechanisms on population (such as war and pestilence), it seems that Malthus (PDF) was correct that food supply is the driving factor, and wonders whether it is even possible to stabilize the world population until food production levels off.


[Editor's Comment: Original Submission]

 
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  • (Score: 4, Insightful) by Wodan on Tuesday May 26 2015, @03:11PM

    by Wodan (517) on Tuesday May 26 2015, @03:11PM (#188050)

    So the population in Japan is shrinking because of the food shortages? how did they keep it out of the news??

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  • (Score: 4, Interesting) by hemocyanin on Tuesday May 26 2015, @03:23PM

    by hemocyanin (186) on Tuesday May 26 2015, @03:23PM (#188054) Journal

    Maybe the driving factor is a combination of poor economic future and sufficient food supply. You have to have the food, but when you can achieve nothing else in life except offspring no matter how hard you try, people might focus on that goal. Just a total guess on my part.

    • (Score: 3, Insightful) by ikanreed on Tuesday May 26 2015, @03:26PM

      by ikanreed (3164) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday May 26 2015, @03:26PM (#188057) Journal

      Higher GDP per capita and average happiness levels are correlated with lower fertility. Your theory is ad hoc and does a poor job of explaining similar data in Europe.

      • (Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday May 27 2015, @02:15AM

        by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday May 27 2015, @02:15AM (#188403) Journal

        Higher GDP per capita and average happiness levels are correlated with lower fertility.

        He was saying lack of future corresponds to higher fertility. If we assume that higher GDP per capita and average happiness levels corresponds to a better future, then he would be agreeing with you at least on the outcome.

        • (Score: 2) by ikanreed on Wednesday May 27 2015, @01:34PM

          by ikanreed (3164) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday May 27 2015, @01:34PM (#188589) Journal

          Hmm. I guess I can believe that's what he was saying.

          It's one of those internet conversations where you just don't understand what the other person is saying, I guess.

    • (Score: 5, Funny) by FatPhil on Tuesday May 26 2015, @03:33PM

      by FatPhil (863) <pc-soylentNO@SPAMasdf.fi> on Tuesday May 26 2015, @03:33PM (#188066) Homepage
      My understanding, based on nothing more than tales of their technology and their porn, is that they are probably trying to breed with robots, but are failing because they don't know exactly what goes where due to government-mandated pixellation.
      --
      Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
    • (Score: 2) by mojo chan on Wednesday May 27 2015, @07:52AM

      by mojo chan (266) on Wednesday May 27 2015, @07:52AM (#188506)

      The population decline in Japan is due to the typical issues that affect people in develop nations. They want careers, children are expensive, and they have the education and empowerment to choose not to have them.

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday May 26 2015, @03:26PM

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday May 26 2015, @03:26PM (#188059)

    Perhaps if you even just skimmed the material you'd see that these issues are addressed:

    Section 4: Why Family Size Has Been Shrinking Worldwide, and Why the Exceptions Are Important

    Section 5: Why Can the Global Average Fertility Rate Rise Even if Each Country's Fertility Rate Is Falling?

    Remember, it is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt.

    • (Score: 3, Touché) by Wodan on Tuesday May 26 2015, @03:30PM

      by Wodan (517) on Tuesday May 26 2015, @03:30PM (#188063)

      What, you expect me to read the actual article? The summary says it's all food!

    • (Score: 3, Insightful) by Ryuugami on Tuesday May 26 2015, @07:30PM

      by Ryuugami (2925) on Tuesday May 26 2015, @07:30PM (#188214)

      Remember, it is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt.

      That may be so, but having only two or three comments per story would be boring.

      --
      If a shit storm's on the horizon, it's good to know far enough ahead you can at least bring along an umbrella. - D.Weber
  • (Score: 2) by FatPhil on Tuesday May 26 2015, @10:21PM

    by FatPhil (863) <pc-soylentNO@SPAMasdf.fi> on Tuesday May 26 2015, @10:21PM (#188323) Homepage
    But I heard on the radio just the other day "Well, don't you know that other kids are starving in Japan"
    --
    Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves