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Several years ago, while doing research for a school project, a group of MIT students realized that, for a few days every three months or so, the most reliably lucrative lottery game in the country was Massachusetts' Cash WinFall, because of a quirk in the way a jackpot was broken down into smaller prizes if there was no big winner. The math whizzes quickly discovered that buying about $100,000 in Cash WinFall tickets on those days would virtually guarantee success. Buying $600,000 worth of tickets would bring a 15%–20% return on investment, according to the New York Daily News.
When the jackpot rose to $2 million, the students bought in, dividing the prize money among group members. But they didn't stop there; they were so successful in their caper that they were eventually able to quit their day jobs and bring in investors to front the money they needed to purchase the requisite number of lottery tickets.
Original Submission
(Score: 2) by MichaelDavidCrawford on Tuesday June 09 2015, @06:05AM
... because I know how to solve The Chocolate Chip Cookie Problem:
WITHOUT USING A CALCULATOR!
Tell me how many chocolate chips must be mixed into the dough required to bake one hundred thousand chocolate chip cookies, such that ninety-eight percent of the cookies contain at least two chips.
Among the reasons there are so many successful casinos is that so many people have a poor understanding of probability.
Yes I Have No Bananas. [gofundme.com]
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 09 2015, @06:15AM
Don't forget to tighten your necktie so tight that you choke to death on your cookies.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 09 2015, @06:43AM
OMG! MDC has a stalker! Calling the Hairyfeet Suppression Society! Take this AC down! Mod bombing is authorized, with extreme prejudice! Let us never hear from him again.
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 09 2015, @06:50AM
It's Crowford's own fault for being such egotistical crowing rooster all the damn time, man. He attracts stalkers like a willing rape victim.
(Score: 2) by aristarchus on Tuesday June 09 2015, @07:04AM
Really! First one I have seen. And not a very good one, either. No biting sarcasm, no insightful criticism, no coherent thought! Ah, must be bot that lost the DARPA challenge.
(Score: 1, Offtopic) by MichaelDavidCrawford on Tuesday June 09 2015, @07:28AM
I regard it as being of fundamental importance that my essays on mental illness are widely read. Unfortunately that comes at the cost that many will dislike me for promoting myself.
Consider that I use my real name online, or even where I don't my identity is plainly apparent from my writing style. I chose to do that specifically because of the widespread criticism that Stephen King receives. Even so, King keeps writing.
Just yesterday, the grieving mother of a young schizoaffective man wrote to me to thank me for writing Living with Schizoaffective Disorder [warplife.com]. This afternoon I phoned a police officer who is investigating the widely reported suicide of a teenage girl.
My ability to help people like that means quite a lot more to me than any crap I might catch from ACs at soylent.
Yes I Have No Bananas. [gofundme.com]
(Score: 1, Offtopic) by MichaelDavidCrawford on Tuesday June 09 2015, @07:22AM
he spent money on google adwords ads in hopes of making me unemployable.
I was good friends with Tsutomu Shimora at Caltech; he has a word for people like modus:
"Anklebiters"
Yes I Have No Bananas. [gofundme.com]
(Score: 2, Interesting) by tftp on Tuesday June 09 2015, @06:35AM
Among the reasons there are so many successful casinos is that so many people have a poor understanding of probability.
Among the reasons there are so many successful casinos is that so many players have a poor understanding of probability and don't realize how important that is. Those who do not play in casinos have no particular reason to worry about chips in cookies. The theory of probability, just as any math above basic arithmetic, is not in high demand in most occupations except science and engineering.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 09 2015, @06:47AM
Among the reasons there are so many successful casinos is that so many players have a poor understanding of probability and don't care. People don't play in casinos to make money, instead they get jobs that pay money. Responsible players budget an amount of money they are willing to lose, and they play for the thrill that they might get from winning some small amount of it back if they're lucky. A good understanding of probability would only cheapen the thrill.
(Score: 3, Informative) by MichaelDavidCrawford on Tuesday June 09 2015, @07:18AM
he knows the odds because he studied graduate mathematics at the U of Nevada in Reno, then took a job designing gambling machines.
Go hang out in a big casino at ten o'clock on a monday morning; I did once, I wanted to vomit.
Yes I Have No Bananas. [gofundme.com]
(Score: 3, Informative) by Thexalon on Tuesday June 09 2015, @02:03PM
Also, casinos kick out those who they realize do understand probability, try to get everyone good and drunk so even if they understand probability they won't use their knowledge, and design their games so that even if you know what you're doing you'll still lose.
The only game commonly played in a casino that is possible to win (on average) is blackjack, and they'll kick you out if you engage in the strategies that allow you to win (it's not just card-counting).
The only thing that stops a bad guy with a compiler is a good guy with a compiler.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 09 2015, @05:20PM
The answer is that there is insufficient information for statistical analysis. Anything else is arrogant assuming.