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posted by
cmn32480
on Thursday July 02 2015, @01:48AM
from the we'll-pay-you-back-this-time-we-swear dept.
from the we'll-pay-you-back-this-time-we-swear dept.
Greece missed a payment to the IMF on Tuesday and defaulted, but now they are willing to do the deal, or most of the deal, that would have prevented it. According to CNN:
Whoa! The Greek government is now ready to sign on to a bailout package it threw out just days ago, but the about-face won't fix the country's crisis any time soon.
Additional coverage of the Greek Referendum and the political backlash in the Eurozone can be found from the BBC.
It looks like they want to add amendments, so this is not a done deal. Maybe it's not too late for Greece? Or is the Euro better off without Greece? Or Greece without the Euro?
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Greece Defaults; Still Wants Bailout
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There *__is* intelligent life on Earth, but I leave for Texas on Monday.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by frojack on Thursday July 02 2015, @03:46AM
You would have to assume the Greeks are stupid enough to export food in the face of mass starvation.
I seriously doubt that just because they fell into a debt trap laid by the EU, you can assume that level of heartless-bastard-ism.
Also, once they swear off those crushing debt payments they may muddle through some how.
This has been done in more than a few South American countries, over the decades.
Some like Venezuela ending up as a basket case, others like Argentina, doing rather well.
And even Nicaragua is getting its act together.
Not saying there isn't going to be pain. Plenty of it.
No, you are mistaken. I've always had this sig.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by Non Sequor on Thursday July 02 2015, @04:22AM
An export ban would make sense (I had left that part out), but the end game seems like it would need to require going through 10-20 years of closing off from the rest of the world and rebalancing to be more self-sufficient. The measures that might need to be taken just to enforce the policies and maintain order may also drive out tourism and shipping.
How do you go from a mostly service economy to focusing on internal subsistence though?
The Latin American defaults may not be comparable since I would think that debt would have been viewed as riskier when it was issued, but for Greece the issues is that their debt has been held by key European institutions (and existing bailout deals have resulted very little of the Greek debt being privately held). If the Greek debt isn't paid, those institutions may need to either stiff someone else downstream from them or the EU may need to print money. If the other shake elements in the European economy start coming loose, then it's not just Greece that's in trouble.
Greece being in the Euro is probably stabilizing the situation, but also preventing any progress towards a solution. But any progress towards a solution probably has "screw over lots of people" as an intermediate step so no one's rushing toward it. The Euro was a dumb idea.
Write your congressman. Tell him he sucks.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday July 02 2015, @04:45AM
Risk has been neutralized. All the debt is in the hands of the boys in big pants who can afford the loss. The EU banking system will not collapse. The Greek people have lived beyond their very limited means and are now fucked. No one will starve to death. The rest of the world will take a small hit and keep on truckin''.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by lentilla on Thursday July 02 2015, @04:38AM
You would have to assume the Greeks are stupid enough to export food in the face of mass starvation.
The question really needs to be re-framed: not in terms of "the Greeks" but rather in terms of "those that own the farms".
As the AC above mentions "most people will do anything to stop their family from dying". What is the definition of "family" here? Children - sure. Immediate family - probably. Neighbours - maybe. The rest of "the Greeks"...? Well, there's an interesting quandary!
Let me ask that initial question from a different angle: if your immediate family was going hungry, wouldn't you feed them first, before feeding your distant countrymen?
There is another aspect to the "it's stupid to export food when people are going hungry" issue. It is likely that any country in this situation; still under rule of law; would implement rules saying food may not be exported. The problem with this is that it unfairly penalises people who produce food. Now their only market is local - and because locals don't have much money they don't make much money. Workers in other markets are still free to chase the comparatively lucrative foreign dollar. If this continues for too long, farmers end up walking off their farms and move into other industries.
I'm not sure how a "modern" society resets itself. The "best" way is for everybody to put their shoulder to the wheel and work hard until they are out of trouble - in effect "from each according to his ability, to each according to his need". The problem here is that in order to do so, the people have to decouple themselves from previously held ideas about wealth. Everybody has to lend themselves to the common effort, in order that everybody may reap the rewards. That's how you keep the farmers on the farms - by compensating them as equally as the merchants who are earning foreign money.
That quirk of human nature - to protect their own tribe first - tends to work against completely co-operative solutions. Except in one circumstance: when everybody is in the same, dire, situation. People stranded in a lifeboat are all going to row together, and row hard. Rich or poor, saint or sinner, they all are "in the same boat" and they have the same prize in mind, or they will all share the same fate. Thus, the only way that everybody is going to fully cooperate is that everyone is equal. That usually seems to spell "revolution" and is invariably bloody. Otherwise those with wealth are going to use it to protect their immediate tribe before the rest of their countryfolk. Ironic: because the rich man rowing shoulder-to-shoulder with the homeless man will both get home all the sooner if they realise the real prize is survival and the chance to enjoy their future wealth.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by frojack on Thursday July 02 2015, @05:31AM
I doubt that the situation is quite that dire such that life boat analogies come into play.
I don't know if Greece is a net exporter or importer of food, but I suspect they have trading partners who will be willing to work with them on a goods exchange basis.
Further, I don't really thing that big of a reset in their day to day economy is likely to be needed. Major foreign financed building projects perhaps, but their real problem has been their balance of trade [tradingeconomics.com]. How much of that is day to day survival rations, I have no idea. I suspect most is fuel and energy.
The thing is, I don't think any of that improves if Greece stays in the EU either. Not with those debt payments draining the economy.
No, you are mistaken. I've always had this sig.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday July 02 2015, @09:34AM
You would have to assume the Greeks are stupid enough to export food in the face of mass starvation
What's so stupid about that? It's called trade.
There are just so many olives you'd want to eat.
(Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday July 02 2015, @10:01AM
Also, if they sell expensive food and buy cheaper food for that money, they actually have increased their food supply (not their food quality, but when starving, you don't care whether your food qualifies for a three-star restaurant; you care whether if fills your stomach and keeps you alive).