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posted by
martyb
on Monday July 06 2015, @08:57AM
from the getting-what-you-asked-for-may-not-be-getting-what-you-want dept.
from the getting-what-you-asked-for-may-not-be-getting-what-you-want dept.
The Greeks voted no to the European Union's terms, despite warnings from the EU that rejecting new austerity terms would set their country on a path out of the Eurozone. 62% voted "No" while 38% voted "Yes".
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(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 07 2015, @11:42AM
I didn't say it's desirable, just that it's possible. The Eurozone can not perpetually tolerate an unwilling member being in flagrant violation of the treaties. Expulsion by law or by coercion is a possibility, whether Greece or anyone else likes it or not. Consider the situation: Seeing the "success" of Syriza's referendum, Podemos will try the same in Spain (election later this year) and Hollande will want less pressure on France (election in 2017). Italy already has a left-leaning government and is looking for an opportunity to relax the pressure on its finances as well. So it's open season on all fiscally responsible countries, but mostly on Germany due to its size and current economic power. This is not going to work. Germany can not bail out Greece, Spain, France and Italy. The tensions will tear the EU apart.
What are the options? a) Greece stops its tantrum, abides by the rules, reforms its state apparatus and becomes a good European citizen. The other countries take note and don't try anything funny themselves. b) Greece does not come to its senses, the Eurogroup does not give in, and Greece exits. The other countries take note and don't try anything funny themselves. c) Greece gets away with it, the Eurogroup grants a haircut and agrees to more money for empty promises, open season on Germany, EU breaks apart, everybody loses.
Option c isn't acceptable, so a haircut is not an option and neither is more money without reforms (not just promises of reforms). So it's option a or b. How likely do you hold option a? That leaves b, Grexit. If it has to be possible, it is possible.