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posted by janrinok on Monday July 20 2015, @12:38PM   Printer-friendly
from the or-not dept.

New research suggests that U.S. climate change, and the unpredictable temperature swings it can bring, may boost death rates in seniors.

"Temperature variability emerges as a key feature in the potential impacts of climate change. The take-home message: Unusual temperature is bad for people's health," said study author Liuhua Shi, a graduate student in the department of environmental health at Harvard's School of Public Health in Boston.

Scientists have long been debating the health effects of climate change, and the general assumption is that it will make people sicker through more extreme heat, more flooding and more polluted air.

Shi and colleagues launched their study in the New England area to better understand how weather affects death rates. "Many studies have reported associations between short-term temperature changes and increased daily deaths," Shi said. "However, there is little evidence to date on the long-term effect of temperature."

The researchers looked at Medicare statistics regarding 2.7 million people over the age of 65 in New England from 2000 to 2008. Of those, Shi said, 30 percent died during the study.

The researchers found death rates rose when the average summer temperature rose significantly, and death rates dropped when the average winter temperature rose significantly.

The researchers believe the increased risk in the summer is due to an increase in the variability of temperatures. According to Shi, "climate change may affect mortality rates by making seasonal weather more unpredictable, creating temperature conditions significantly different to those to which people have become acclimatized."

On the other hand, warmer winter temperatures caused by climate change could actually reduce deaths, the researchers added.

The study appears in the July 13 issue of Nature Climate Change.


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  • (Score: 2) by ikanreed on Monday July 20 2015, @05:27PM

    by ikanreed (3164) Subscriber Badge on Monday July 20 2015, @05:27PM (#211485) Journal

    Well, nominally speaking, that's a bit apt.

    The problem is that framing is that it represents a single discrete death. A case where we can really dig in and examine everything involved. Here, we're talking about a trend modeled against a hypothesized trend. Keep in mind here, I don't think the analysis is particularly flawed, just that the obvious objections aren't completely without merit. Those dropping them are giving them a lot more credit than they're due, but they're real concerns.

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