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posted by takyon on Thursday July 30 2015, @09:50PM   Printer-friendly
from the electro-cliffhanger dept.

Geoff Ralston has an interesting essay explaining why is likely that electric car penetration in the US will take off at an exponential rate over the next 5-10 years rendering laughable the paltry predictions of future electric car sales being made today. Present projections assume that electric car sales will slowly increase as the technology gets marginally better, and as more and more customers choose to forsake a better product (the gasoline car) for a worse, yet "greener" version. According to Ralston this view of the future is, simply, wrong. - electric cars will take over our roads because consumers will demand them. "Electric cars will be better than any alternative, including the loud, inconvenient, gas-powered jalopy," says Ralston. "The Tesla Model S has demonstrated that a well made, well designed electric car is far superior to anything else on the road. This has changed everything."

The Tesla Model S has sold so well because, compared to old-fashioned gasoline cars it is more fun to drive, quieter, always "full" every morning, more roomy, and it continuously gets better with automatic updates and software improvements. According to Ralston the tipping point will come when gas stations, not a massively profitable business, start to go out of business as many more electric cars are sold, making gasoline powered vehicles even more inconvenient. When that happens even more gasoline car owners will be convinced to switch. Rapidly a tipping point will be reached, at which point finding a convenient gas station will be nearly impossible and owning a gasoline powered car will positively suck. "Elon Musk has ushered in the age of the electric car, and whether or not it, too, was inevitable, it has certainly begun," concludes Ralston. "The future of automotive transportation is an electric one and you can expect that future to be here soon."


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  • (Score: 4, Interesting) by Taibhsear on Thursday July 30 2015, @10:04PM

    by Taibhsear (1464) on Thursday July 30 2015, @10:04PM (#216045)

    One problem I foresee with this is renters. Where do you charge your electric vehicle if you don't have a garage? They either need to get the cars to recharge way faster or find a way to charge cars on the street. Gas stations aren't going anywhere, they're just going to incorporate emergency charging stations. Full disclaimer: I'm wholly for electric vehicles. This, and the current high prices, are the only things holding me back right now.

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  • (Score: 3, Interesting) by RedBear on Friday July 31 2015, @01:44AM

    by RedBear (1734) on Friday July 31 2015, @01:44AM (#216107)

    Many municipalities are already requiring and/or allowing the installation of curbside charging posts for those who need to park on the street. There will no doubt continue to be tremendous progress on this issue in the next few years for apartment dwellers and HOA victims and anyone else who currently has difficulty finding a place to plug in overnight. There is also progress happening on workplace charging.

    It's a popular idea that gas stations will install quick-charge (not "emergency") stations, and some will be successful at this, but many EV drivers have absolutely no interest in charging their nice, clean EVs at a filthy, smelly gas station surrounded by noisy, exhaust-belching ICE vehicles gassing up. That's really the antithesis of the EV experience. Eventually the main areas where you will probably find good public charging infrastructure is around malls, restaurants and other places where the owners want people to spend 30+ minutes shopping or eating. It will be offered to customers just like free Wi-Fi. Those are the chargers that most people will want to use, because they were going to that location anyway. Gas stations that don't evolve to be very clean and quiet and have some sort of compelling shopping or dining experience will not do well even if they install EV chargers.

    It is important to remember that in most cases people won't actually need an extensive quick charge on their vehicle. Most of the time, even on a slow charger, the vehicle will just be topping itself up while the driver is at home for the night or at work for several hours, after driving no more than a couple dozen miles. Most people drastically overestimate the A) the number of public quick chargers that will be needed to service millions of EV drivers, and B) the impact it will have on the electrical grid. The grid has been estimated to be able to support tens of millions of EVs without really being upgraded at all.

    In my estimation, based on watching this whole field very closely for several years now, I predict that a significant tipping point will be not right now but about 2017-2020. The Chevy Bolt EV (and the Volt Plug-in Hybrid EV, or PHEV, which is already very popular), the next-gen Nissan LEAF, and the Tesla Model 3 as well as probably at least a couple of other 200+ mile range affordable EVs will be on the market and widely available by then. At least one "gigafactory" for producing the necessary number of batteries will be in full swing by then also, so there should be no difficulty in producing a significant number of vehicles for sale. By that time many more people will have also experienced or at least seen or heard of the Tesla S/X vehicles as well.

    So yes, I believe about two to three years from now EV sales will go absolutely bonkers, and automakers that have refused to develop EVs or PHEVs with good electric range are going to start needing a steady supply of adult diapers as they watch the ICE passenger vehicle market suddenly start groaning to a halt. It's a huge market, so it will take a long time, but that will be seen as the inflection point where it will start to die. Not 10-15 years, 2-3 years. Five years is already stretching it, in my opinion.

    --
    ¯\_ʕ◔.◔ʔ_/¯ LOL. I dunno. I'm just a bear.
    ... Peace out. Got bear stuff to do. 彡ʕ⌐■.■ʔ
    • (Score: 3, Informative) by mhajicek on Friday July 31 2015, @04:54AM

      by mhajicek (51) on Friday July 31 2015, @04:54AM (#216167)

      I think for many the projected total cost of ownership will be the deciding factor. They'll pay a higher purchase price if the reduced energy and maintenance costs will more than balance out. Once the point is reached that the electrics with the lowest cost of ownership beat out the ice ones with the lowest cost of ownership, I expect the market to really start swinging.

      --
      The spacelike surfaces of time foliations can have a cusp at the surface of discontinuity. - P. Hajicek
    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 31 2015, @08:16AM

      by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 31 2015, @08:16AM (#216205)

      requiring and/or allowing

      So there are places that require it, but don't allow it?

      • (Score: 2, Flamebait) by RedBear on Friday July 31 2015, @09:38AM

        by RedBear (1734) on Friday July 31 2015, @09:38AM (#216225)

        On the off chance that you aren't just being funny:

        I was just trying to convey that in some areas (like California) they are drafting regulations that _require_ building owners to install a certain number of EV chargers. Meanwhile, in other areas regulations are being written to _allow_ renters and victims of overzealous Home Owners Associations to install EV chargers over the objections of the building owners or HOAs. Obviously if it is required then it is allowed, but just because it's allowed doesn't mean it's required.

        If you were just trying to be funny:

        Haha. Ha ha ha. Amusing. *wipes away tear*

        --
        ¯\_ʕ◔.◔ʔ_/¯ LOL. I dunno. I'm just a bear.
        ... Peace out. Got bear stuff to do. 彡ʕ⌐■.■ʔ
    • (Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Friday July 31 2015, @10:56AM

      by Phoenix666 (552) on Friday July 31 2015, @10:56AM (#216243) Journal

      Thanks for the pithy post. I think you're right. One thing I would add is that this is a shift that car owners will want to get in on early while their gas cars still have trade-in value.

      I'm actually the last one in my family to get an electric car (because my brother is an automotive engineer who wanted to try out the tech and my brother-in-law works at a high-end BMW dealership and got a sweetheart deal), so I've been able to experience the future. The driving experience beats any gas-powered car I've ever driven. The acceleration is instantly responsive and quiet. That's a wonderful thing for me because I have a lot of difficulty discerning conversation in noisy environments, so it means I can actually talk to my wife and kids when we're in the car. The braking is great. It's excellent to be done with changing the oil and all of that maintenance crap. It's incredibly convenient. You plug it in at night like you would your laptop or iPhone and the next morning you're good to go again, so it fits in with your daily routines for other things; no more waiting for a spot at the gas station or having to flip around because your gas cap is on the other side. Not having to deal with any of the nonsense that surrounds gas cars is quite liberating.

      --
      Washington DC delenda est.
  • (Score: 1) by rheaghen on Friday July 31 2015, @06:06PM

    by rheaghen (2470) on Friday July 31 2015, @06:06PM (#216430) Homepage

    The price isnt holding you back:
    http://www.carmax.com/search?search=Nissan%20Leaf&Ep=homepage:homepage [carmax.com]
    http://bit.ly/1LV8C38 [bit.ly]

    15 minute Fast DC Chargers are abundant:
    http://www.plugshare.com/?latitude=39.707187&longitude=-98.349609&zoom=4& [plugshare.com]

    If you live in a major city, I'd wager you just don't have to courage to embrace the unknown before its the status quo.

    • (Score: 2) by Taibhsear on Monday August 03 2015, @06:33PM

      by Taibhsear (1464) on Monday August 03 2015, @06:33PM (#217492)

      A new Leaf is $29,000. That's twice what I paid for my car. Yes it is holding me back. If by "courage" you mean "stupidity to spend my entire savings" then yes.