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Geoff Ralston has an interesting essay explaining why is likely that electric car penetration in the US will take off at an exponential rate over the next 5-10 years rendering laughable the paltry predictions of future electric car sales being made today. Present projections assume that electric car sales will slowly increase as the technology gets marginally better, and as more and more customers choose to forsake a better product (the gasoline car) for a worse, yet "greener" version. According to Ralston this view of the future is, simply, wrong. - electric cars will take over our roads because consumers will demand them. "Electric cars will be better than any alternative, including the loud, inconvenient, gas-powered jalopy," says Ralston. "The Tesla Model S has demonstrated that a well made, well designed electric car is far superior to anything else on the road. This has changed everything."
The Tesla Model S has sold so well because, compared to old-fashioned gasoline cars it is more fun to drive, quieter, always "full" every morning, more roomy, and it continuously gets better with automatic updates and software improvements. According to Ralston the tipping point will come when gas stations, not a massively profitable business, start to go out of business as many more electric cars are sold, making gasoline powered vehicles even more inconvenient. When that happens even more gasoline car owners will be convinced to switch. Rapidly a tipping point will be reached, at which point finding a convenient gas station will be nearly impossible and owning a gasoline powered car will positively suck. "Elon Musk has ushered in the age of the electric car, and whether or not it, too, was inevitable, it has certainly begun," concludes Ralston. "The future of automotive transportation is an electric one and you can expect that future to be here soon."
(Score: 4, Informative) by KilroySmith on Thursday July 30 2015, @10:17PM
I drive 30 miles each way to work every day. My next commuter car will be electric to do that daily grind.
However, I also make 400 mile road trips several times a year to visit family. Right now, I can't do that with the available electic cars unless I buy a Tesla - and that only works because there's a supercharger station halfway between Phoenix and L.A. If I was visiting family in, say, Las Cruces NM or Dallas TX I'd be out of luck.
That's why I expect that I'll own at least one gas-powered vehicle for the next 20 years.
(Score: 2) by Ken_g6 on Thursday July 30 2015, @11:08PM
What if more places install supercharger stations? Would that make your 400 mile road trip something you'd want to do in an electric car?
(Score: 2) by KilroySmith on Friday July 31 2015, @05:26AM
when Supercharger stations become nearly as ubiquitous as gas stations, then yes.
Cities are a long way apart out here in the west.
(Score: 3, Informative) by slinches on Thursday July 30 2015, @11:24PM
I'm in a similar situation, but I plan on purchasing an Elio [eliomotors.com] instead of an electric car. With such a low price and high mileage ($6800 and >60 mpg combined cycle) the TCO over five years for me is ~$10k, which is less than just the purchase price of any other similarly capable vehicle (electric or otherwise). The only thing that could match the low cost and high efficiency is a motorcycle or scooter and those are far less safe and exposed to weather.
(Score: 2) by RedBear on Friday July 31 2015, @03:06AM
I really sincerely wish you the best of luck in actually acquiring an Elio, but from what I have read about it they are continuing to have a significant problem getting funded. They need something like $150 million more just to get mass production started. As far as I know, no three-wheeled vehicle has ever succeeded in the marketplace despite many tries, and their price point seems like a pipe dream. I'd be really surprised if they could produce it for less than 2-3 times that price. The American market seems to see oddball compact vehicles like the Elio as far too limiting versus a regular compact car. They just never succeed beyond a small cult following, and I don't see how the Elio will be any different.
It would be super cool to see things like the Elio or the Corbin Sparrow [google.com] available and driving around, but I would not personally bet on that horse rather than investing in a used Nissan LEAF or something. The American market just seems to consider them expensive third-vehicle hobby toys for rich people.
¯\_ʕ◔.◔ʔ_/¯ LOL. I dunno. I'm just a bear.
... Peace out. Got bear stuff to do. 彡ʕ⌐■.■ʔ
(Score: 3, Interesting) by slinches on Friday July 31 2015, @04:08AM
Yeah, at 2-3x the price it would be far less appealing and only justifiable as a rather lame toy. The reason I think it could work this time is that the cost is low enough that it would be cheaper to buy an Elio and keep your regular car than to pay for the gas and maintenance costs of driving that regular car. As far as meeting that cost target goes, the CEO has stated that if they pushed the current design into production, that they are only ~$500 over the target price. So it seems that it isn't far off and the approach of using off the shelf components and offering the more expensive upgrade features as options appears to be sound.
The funding situation is looking better too. They just met a goal of 25 million in private investor interest over at startengine.com. That money is slated to fund the fleet of 25 test vehicles and associated validation testing. The rest of the funds to tool up the production line and start making vehicles will likely come from the government ATVM loan that Elio has applied for. Assuming the loan comes through, they should be in good financial shape after that. There are already 44,000 reservations made, so they know there's demand to go into high volume production immediately.
All that being said, there's still a high risk of failure. That comes with the territory of start ups, especially those in the automotive industry. That's why I haven't put money down for a reservation yet. Instead I plan to invest that $1000 through the regulation A+ offering. If they succeed and go into full production, I'll probably be able to get an Elio with the profit. If not, I'm only out as much as any of the thousands of people who put in non-refundable deposits.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by ese002 on Friday July 31 2015, @12:28AM
However, I also make 400 mile road trips several times a year to visit family. Right now, I can't do that with the available electic cars unless I buy a Tesla - and that only works because there's a supercharger station halfway between Phoenix and L.A. If I was visiting family in, say, Las Cruces NM or Dallas TX I'd be out of luck.
How many and how long are these trips? It may be cheaper to rent a gas or (better) a diesel powered vehicle for these trips.
(Score: 2) by theluggage on Friday July 31 2015, @11:09AM
How many and how long are these trips? It may be cheaper to rent a gas or (better) a diesel powered vehicle for these trips.
Indeed, and I believe that BMW have a scheme whereby if you buy one of their EVs, you can borrow a petrol burner for free.
However, its not all about cost. With the current price premium you're not going to save money with a private EV anytime soon (maybe with certain company car/leasing schemes involving tax breaks).
People like having their own car, that they chose, with their stuff, that they can use when they want for as long as they want. They like being able to head off on a whim, or in an emergency - even if they don't do it that often. If you want a hire car you've got to book it, arrange transport to pick it up (or pay extra for delivery and arrange to be in when it arrives), sign insurance waivers etc. Its another factor to go wrong on your weekend away. Not exactly the trials of Hercules, but something that you don't have to worry about with a compact petrol car that is good for both daily commuting and road trips. That's a hard pill to swallow at the same time as paying 50% over the odds for an EV.
Bottom line is that current EVs work well for people who can charge them at home and/or work, already expect to run two or more cars and/or never need to drive further than the nearest airport. That's a substantial market, but it doesn't suit everybody.
(Score: 1) by rheaghen on Friday July 31 2015, @06:11PM
... Or get a well equipped DC Generator that can do 30-40 amps at 400-500 volts. 15 minutes here and there wouldn't a big deal...
(Score: 2) by Grishnakh on Friday July 31 2015, @01:53AM
They'll probably have more Supercharger stations installed within 5 years, making the other trips feasible.
Also, you can always just rent a car for the 400mi trips.
(Score: 2) by RedBear on Friday July 31 2015, @02:19AM
1. The very next generation of affordable EVs coming out will have 200+ miles of range. Nissan LEAF, Chevy Bolt, Tesla Model 3, etc. They will all be out and widely available by 2017-2018. And there will probably be two or three other models out by then or shortly thereafter. They will start to become available as used vehicles within 2-3 years after that.
2. The public quick-charging infrastructure is improving every year. Especially the Tesla Supercharger network, so if you get a Tesla Model 3... A long trip that might have caused you a problem in an EV last year will most likely not be an issue within a couple of years. There are about to be millions of EV drivers demanding improvements to public EV charging availability.
3. In my opinion most people will not find it economically beneficial to own any pure ICE vehicle beyond about 10 years from now. Holdouts will make it to 15 years, maybe. I very much doubt that you will still have any pure ICE vehicle 20 years from now. Even people with old classic ICE cars are starting to convert them to electric.
I'm not even confident that Plug-in Hybrids (PHEVs), even ones with 80+ miles of all-electric range, will be considered a good thing to own 20 years from now. The economics of fossil fuels and public opinion about using any amount of fossil fuels for transportation are going to be completely transformed during the next two decades. Hell, ultra-conservative Texans are starting to drive electric cars because they're tired of America being dependent on foreign oil. Everything is changing quite rapidly. I think it's going to take an awful lot of people by surprise.
¯\_ʕ◔.◔ʔ_/¯ LOL. I dunno. I'm just a bear.
... Peace out. Got bear stuff to do. 彡ʕ⌐■.■ʔ
(Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Friday July 31 2015, @11:07AM
My brother has a BMW i3 EV he uses every day for his commute. He also has a gas-powered crossover. Maybe that's your solution. Or fly and use a rental locally if it costs less than carrying the insurance, registration, and annual maintenance for the gas car for those handful of trips.
But as others have pointed out EV fast-chargers will grow rapidly and battery capacity too and you probably won't have any worries about where to recharge in a couple years.
Washington DC delenda est.