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Geoff Ralston has an interesting essay explaining why is likely that electric car penetration in the US will take off at an exponential rate over the next 5-10 years rendering laughable the paltry predictions of future electric car sales being made today. Present projections assume that electric car sales will slowly increase as the technology gets marginally better, and as more and more customers choose to forsake a better product (the gasoline car) for a worse, yet "greener" version. According to Ralston this view of the future is, simply, wrong. - electric cars will take over our roads because consumers will demand them. "Electric cars will be better than any alternative, including the loud, inconvenient, gas-powered jalopy," says Ralston. "The Tesla Model S has demonstrated that a well made, well designed electric car is far superior to anything else on the road. This has changed everything."
The Tesla Model S has sold so well because, compared to old-fashioned gasoline cars it is more fun to drive, quieter, always "full" every morning, more roomy, and it continuously gets better with automatic updates and software improvements. According to Ralston the tipping point will come when gas stations, not a massively profitable business, start to go out of business as many more electric cars are sold, making gasoline powered vehicles even more inconvenient. When that happens even more gasoline car owners will be convinced to switch. Rapidly a tipping point will be reached, at which point finding a convenient gas station will be nearly impossible and owning a gasoline powered car will positively suck. "Elon Musk has ushered in the age of the electric car, and whether or not it, too, was inevitable, it has certainly begun," concludes Ralston. "The future of automotive transportation is an electric one and you can expect that future to be here soon."
(Score: 4, Insightful) by ese002 on Friday July 31 2015, @12:28AM
However, I also make 400 mile road trips several times a year to visit family. Right now, I can't do that with the available electic cars unless I buy a Tesla - and that only works because there's a supercharger station halfway between Phoenix and L.A. If I was visiting family in, say, Las Cruces NM or Dallas TX I'd be out of luck.
How many and how long are these trips? It may be cheaper to rent a gas or (better) a diesel powered vehicle for these trips.
(Score: 2) by theluggage on Friday July 31 2015, @11:09AM
How many and how long are these trips? It may be cheaper to rent a gas or (better) a diesel powered vehicle for these trips.
Indeed, and I believe that BMW have a scheme whereby if you buy one of their EVs, you can borrow a petrol burner for free.
However, its not all about cost. With the current price premium you're not going to save money with a private EV anytime soon (maybe with certain company car/leasing schemes involving tax breaks).
People like having their own car, that they chose, with their stuff, that they can use when they want for as long as they want. They like being able to head off on a whim, or in an emergency - even if they don't do it that often. If you want a hire car you've got to book it, arrange transport to pick it up (or pay extra for delivery and arrange to be in when it arrives), sign insurance waivers etc. Its another factor to go wrong on your weekend away. Not exactly the trials of Hercules, but something that you don't have to worry about with a compact petrol car that is good for both daily commuting and road trips. That's a hard pill to swallow at the same time as paying 50% over the odds for an EV.
Bottom line is that current EVs work well for people who can charge them at home and/or work, already expect to run two or more cars and/or never need to drive further than the nearest airport. That's a substantial market, but it doesn't suit everybody.
(Score: 1) by rheaghen on Friday July 31 2015, @06:11PM
... Or get a well equipped DC Generator that can do 30-40 amps at 400-500 volts. 15 minutes here and there wouldn't a big deal...